记录这次股灾

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请各位把各报章关于“这次“股灾的报道记录在这里， 还请附上出处。。。谢谢。（不按次序）

23/1/08：http://www.zaobao.com/special/ne ... taiwan080123c.shtml
联合早报网讯）台湾联合新闻网报道，美国联邦准备理事会（Fed）22日紧急调降利率3码，加上白宫即将推出振兴经济方案，预料将为美国经济注入一剂强心针，挽救股市免於一泻千里。但在市场激情过後，美国经济能否免於严重衰退，以及衰退将带来何种冲击，经济学家仍然看法分歧。

　　Fed无预警降息出乎意料，但已有经济学家批评来得太迟，因为美国衰退几乎已成定局。白宫的1,500亿美元振兴方案，也被许多人批为远水救不了近火。较一致的看法是，就算紧急降息无法阻止衰退，至少可减缓或缩短经济衰退。

　　从历史经验、近日的企业获利和经济指标判断，经济学家推估，尽管Fed紧急降息，美国消费者将继续紧缩支出，房价将再滑落一年左右，失业率可能升高到7%，股市也还有下跌空间。整体来看，未来一段期间资产市场的输家将多於赢家。

　　如果美国消费者长期紧缩支出，全球经济势必感受冲击，因为美国消费者支出近年来在世界经济成长扮演重要角色。不过，分析师说，有几个经济体可能纾缓美国衰退的程度，例如中国和印度的需求将有助於缓和衰退的打击。

　　美国自二次大战以来的十次衰退，平均间隔六年，持续时间从八个月到16个月不等，平均造成2个百分点的国内生产毛额（GDP）下跌。最严重的是1973年到1975年阿拉伯石油禁运带来的衰退，期间的通货膨胀达到双位数，股市大跌25%。

　　多数经济学家认为，这波衰退与1990到1991年与石油有关的衰退较相似。当时伊拉克入侵科威特导致油价飙涨，房地产呆帐伤及消费者储蓄和银行业，Fed在当时也被批评反应不够快、不够积极。

　　Fed紧急宣布调降联邦资金利率3码到3.5%前，对美国经济衰退最悲观的经济学家是席夫（Peter Schiff），他曾数度正确预测房市下跌与油价上涨。他预测这次美国将陷於大萧条以来最严重的衰退，失业率、利率和通货膨胀，都将攀至双位数，也都是目前水准的两倍。

　　但从美国经济过去展现的韧性看来，多数专家认为席夫危言耸听。美林公司的经济学家相信，这波经济衰退已经开始，但到今年夏季中期就会结束。（综合外电）

　　【记者林淑媛／台北报导】美国联邦准备理事会（Fed）紧急降息3码（0.75个百分点），经建会副主委叶明峰表示，布希政府宣布振兴经济方案与联准会大幅降息双管齐下，应该会对股市有止血与激励作用。

　　不过，叶明峰说，唯一的变数是次级房贷对经济的冲击是否真已到底部，尚未有定论，对经济的冲击程度仍必须持续观察。至於台股因全球股灾而狂泻，叶明峰认为，行政院必须要再观察几天才考虑是否要采取政策工具。

　　美国经济成长趋缓，引发全球恐慌，银行业龙头花旗银行因次级房贷的冲击亏损180亿美元，美林证券也损失上百亿美元，银行与证券的龙头都中弹倒地，不仅美国经济前景亮起红灯，连国际货币基金（IMF）也担忧全球经济将因此告急。

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市值兩週內蒸發5兆美元‧股災海嘯襲擊全球
大馬財經 財經焦點  2008-01-22 18:40

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/8987?tid=5

（吉隆坡訊）美國衰退陰影引爆國際股災海嘯襲擊，全球股市崩盤式重挫4%至12%，預告牛市結束，熊市到來；印度一開市就暴瀉近10%，立刻啟動暫停交易機制，暫停交易1小時；馬股今天一度暴跌4.8%，失守1400點，災情慘重。

今年迄今短短兩週交易日，全球股市市值已經蒸發超過5兆美元，許多股市都是2001年“911”事件以來最慘重跌勢，全球熊市氣氛迷蔓，陰霾密佈。

歐洲股市跌幅逾6%

全球股災再現，美股上週雖有布什擬提出振興經濟方案，但投資人信心薄弱，美股上週五收黑，週一則因馬丁路德紀念日休市一天，但股災由昨天的亞股重挫率先引爆，歐洲股市哀嚎遍野，隨美股之後步入熊市，德國、俄羅斯指數皆暴跌逾7%，法國、西班牙、挪威等指數重挫逾6%，英國、瑞士、芬蘭等指數跌幅也都逾5%以上。歐洲股市今日開市再重挫4%。

印度股市一度崩跌逾12%

亞洲股市週二開市跌勢更慘烈，近乎崩盤，重挫4%至11%。印度一開市就重摔1716.41點或9.75%，令人慘不忍睹，緊急宣佈暫停交易1小時後跌勢不能緩和，崩跌超過2000點或12%，令投資者哀號。

港日台是重災區

香港、日本、台灣都是重災區；日本急挫超過700點或5%，香港重瀉超過2000點或8%，台灣股市慘跌超過500點，超過6%；中國股市一度重跌超過7%，午盤走勢稍好轉，但也下跌超過6%。澳洲跌超過7%， 韓國和和菲律賓都跌超過5%。

日股跌752點，跌破13000點，是2005年首見；香港跌2061.23點，是2000年1月以來最大跌幅，澳洲的393點跌勢也是911以來僅見。台灣股市跌528點創10年來單日第2大跌點，50%或超過800家公司跌停板。

馬股失守1400點

東南亞股市以印尼最淒慘，滑瀉超過250點或10%，馬股、新加坡股市也非常不好看，重跌4%左右。馬股綜指今早開市即跌破1400點關口，重量級藍籌被拋售領跌情況下，使綜指一度猛挫68.31點，至1340.29點，連1350點也失守。全天收市時，跌勢稍為緩和縮減，惟綜指全天還是丟失54.12點或3.84%，至1354.48點。

馬股綜指一開市即下挫26.17點至1382.43點，接著突破多項支持點，包括1380、1370、1360等數道主要關卡。

種植股指數跌勢最凌厲

富時大馬全股項指數則跌386.98點至9179.01點、富時大馬二板指數則跌263.54點至6236.49點。至於跌勢最淩厲的種植股指數暴跌543.85點至7638.85點。

種植股佼佼者─吉隆坡甲洞（KLK，2445；主板種植組）全天狂跌1令吉10仙，至16令吉80仙；聯合種植（UTDPLT，2089；主板種植組）跌1令吉20仙，至13令吉；居林（KULIM，2003；主板種植組）挫65仙至7令吉35仙。

亞地種植（ASIATIC，2291；主板種植組）挫60仙至7令吉85仙、砂勞越油棕（SOP，5126；主板種植組）全天跌80仙至5令吉55仙、而巴都加灣（BKAWAN，1899；主板種植組）則猛跌90仙至10令吉90仙。

其餘跌幅較嚴重的藍籌股，計有大馬交易所（BURSA，1818；主板金融組）全天猛跌90仙至12令吉90仙、數碼網絡（DIGI，6947；主板基建計劃組）則猛挫1令吉40仙至22令吉60仙；至於消費股─英美煙草（BAT，4162；主板消費品組）則挫1令吉50仙至40令吉50仙。

分析員表示，馬股經過數個交易的崩瀉之後，市場情緒已嚴重受創，短期後市不受看好，投資者還是暫時退居場外，等待市場較平穩後才作定奪。

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Wednesday January 23, 2008

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/1/23/business/20091553&sec=business

Big falls on Asian bourses

By IZWAN IDRIS and YVONNE TAN

PETALING JAYA: Panic selling accelerated across Asian bourses yesterday as investors dumped their equity holdings en masse on fears that a recession in the US would hammer the region's fast growing economies.

Shares in Hong Kong were the worst hit, with the main Hang Seng Index closing 8.6% down as yesterday's biggest loser among Asian bourses. The index has fallen a total of 14.1% over the past two trading days this week in its sharpest two-day decline in a decade.

But in a surprise move before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.5% in what analysts said was an apparent bid to avert a recession in the world's biggest economy.

Taking the cue from the rate cut, European shares reversed their earlier losses, with stocks in Britain rising 2% as news broke out.

Earlier, trading sentiment in Asia was dogged by indications that US stocks were primed for a big drop on Tuesday, with stock index futures pointing to a 500-point plunge for the Dow Jones Industrial average after an extended weekend.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index slumped 5.6%, while Australian stocks plummeted 7% yesterday.

None of the Asian stock markets open for trade yesterday was spared, with key indices down by at least 1% from Seoul to Sri Lanka.

On the local front, the KL Composite Index (KLCI) tumbled to an intra-day low of 1,340 points, but recovered slightly towards the end although it finished deep in negative territory. The benchmark ended 54.12 points lower, or down 3.8%, to 1,354.38, while the broader FBM Emas Index dropped 4% to close at 9,179 points.

“(The market situation) does not necessarily translate into a downturn in the economy,'' Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop said when asked yesterday to comment on the stock market slump.

The KLCI has fallen 6.3% since the start of the year, which was a relatively mild drop compared with the double-digit losses in other Asian markets, excluding those in Shenzhen, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was the worst performer, having fallen 22% year-to-date.

“If the recession in the United States is severe, there are bound to be negative effects on Asia, but Asia seems to be such a robust region that there is at present no major danger or change in economic growth,'' Nor Mohamed said during his visit to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) headquarters in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

EPF is the country's biggest asset manager, with total fund size of more than RM300bil.

Nor Mohamed's comments, however, did little to calm nervous local investors yesterday.

Shares in Public Bank Bhd fell 30 sen to RM10.70 yesterday despite having announced a day earlier yet another set of strong results for the year ended Dec 31, 2007.

“The market will be closed (today for Thaipusam) and most people would rather wait for the market to stabilise before committing,'' a senior fund manager said.

The downbeat sentiment on stocks also spread to the commodity market, with crude palm oil (CPO) prices extending losses to a third day in a row on Bursa Derivatives.

The futures contract for April delivery took a knock, losing RM128 per tonne, or nearly 4%, to RM3,115 per tonne. The contract reached an all-time high of RM3,420 per tonne on Jan 14.

Most analysts predicted that CPO would average around RM2,800 per tonne or more in 2008 after prices surged 56% last year. Crude oil price also retreated yesterday, falling US$3 per barrel to US$87.60 in electronic trading hours before the market opened for New York trade.

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Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 75 Bps
Tuesday January 22, 6:27 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/fed_interest_rates.html

Fed Cuts Interest Rate Amid Global Stock Sell-Off and Fears of Recession

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve unexpectedly slashed a key interest rate by a bold three-fourths of a percentage point on Tuesday, responding to a global plunge in stock markets that heightened concerns about a recession. The Fed signaled that further rate cuts were likely.
The reduction in the federal funds rate from 4.25 percent down to 3.5 percent marked the biggest reduction in this target rate for overnight loans on records going back to 1990. It marked the first time that the Fed has changed the funds rate between meetings since 2001, when the central bank was battling the combined impacts of a recession and the terrorist attacks.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues approved the large rate cut after an emergency video conference on Monday night, a day when global markets had been pounded by rising concerns that weakness in the world's largest economy was spreading worldwide.

Despite the Fed's bold move, Wall Street plunged at the opening with the Dow Jones industrial average down 465 points before stocks began to rebound. The Dow finished the day off 128.11 points at 11,971.19. Analysts said the milder decline at the end of the day after such a rough start showed the Fed's effort to reassure Wall Street had an impact.

In a brief statement explaining its move, the Fed said that "appreciable downside risks to growth remain" and officials pledged to "act in a timely manner" to deal with the risks facing the economy. The action was approved on an 8-1 vote.

Analysts said the fact that the Fed did not wait until its meeting next week to cut rates underscored the seriousness of the situation.

"The world's stock markets are in meltdown so the Fed came in with an inter-meeting move to try to stop the panic," said Christopher Rupkey, senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

The Bush administration, which had announced on Friday that President Bush supported a $150 billion economic stimulus package, said Tuesday that it was not ruling out doing more than the $150 billion proposal if necessary. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson were conferring with congressional leaders at the White House on Tuesday, with all sides saying they want to reach agreement quickly.

The Fed was expected to cut rates further, possibly as soon as their next meeting on Jan. 29-30, if there are continued signs that the economy is weakening.

"This move by the Fed was essential," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who is now a senior analyst with the Stanford Financial Group in Washington. "Bernanke promised in a speech earlier this month to take substantive action in a timely and decisive manner."

Gramley said that Bernanke was now exercising the kind of forceful leadership the markets had been hoping to see since the credit crisis hit in August.

David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, said Fed officials have a range of options available at next week's meeting from a quarter-point move to a half-point move to holding rates steady but indicating the Fed is prepared to move again between meetings should conditions deteriorate further. Jones predicted the Fed would lower the funds rate to 3 percent by the end of March.

In addition to cutting the funds rate, the Fed said it was reducing its discount rate, the interest it charges to make direct loans to banks, by a similar three-quarters of a percentage point, pushing this rate down to 4 percent.

Commercial banks responded to the Fed's action on the funds rate by announcing similar cuts of three-quarter of a percent on its prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans. The action will mean the prime lending rate will drop from 7.25 percent down to 6.50 percent.

Global financial markets had plunged Monday as investors grew more concerned about the possibility that the United States, the world's largest economy, could be headed into a recession. Many markets suffered their biggest declines since the September 2001 terrorist attacks.

In its statement, the Fed said it had decided to cut the federal funds rate "in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth."

The central bank said that the strains in short-term credit markets have eased a bit, but "broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets."

Before Tuesday's move, the Fed had cut interest rates three times, beginning in September, the month after a severe credit crunch had roiled Wall Street and global financial markets. The Fed cut the funds rate by a half-point in September and then by smaller quarter-point moves in October and December.

"The committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risk," the Fed statement said.

The Fed's action was approved on an 8-1 vote with William Poole, president of the Fed's regional bank, dissenting. The statement said that Poole objected because he did not believe current conditions justified a rate move before the Fed's meeting next week.

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US Moves to Avert Economic Meltdown
Tuesday January 22, 7:18 pm ET
By Terence Hunt, AP White House Correspondent

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/economy_stimulus.html

Emergency Fed Rate Cut Stabilizes Stocks; Bush, Congress Pledge Urgent Action to Stem Slide

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Jolted by global recession fears, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates Tuesday, and President Bush and leaders of Congress joined in a rare show of cooperation in promising urgent action to pump up the economy with upwards of $150 billion in tax cuts and government spending.
Market meltdowns overnight around the globe and growing anxiety at home stirred lawmakers and the administration toward swift action, possibly within a few weeks. Wall Street plummeted as the day began, following Asian stocks, then warily eased its sell-off after the Fed ordered the biggest cut on record in a key interest rate. The Dow Jones industrials, down 465 points at one point, closed the day off 128.

The Fed, announcing its action after an emergency video conference Monday night, indicated further rate reductions were likely, aimed at encouraging people and companies to start spending again.

"The urgency that we feel at home is now even more urgent as we see the impact of our markets on others," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said after both Democratic and Republican lawmakers met with Bush at the White House.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the goal was to get a deal through Congress and on Bush's desk within roughly three weeks -- lightning speed compared with the usual snail's pace on Capitol Hill. His Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, agreed the aim was action in the next few weeks and said, "That, by the standards in Congress, is pretty fast."

Bush expressed confidence that he and the Democratic-led Congress could put aside bitter differences that have marked his presidency.

"I believe we can find common ground to get something done that's big enough, effective enough so that an economy that is inherently strong gets a boost -- to make sure that this uncertainty doesn't translate into more economic woes for our workers and small business people," Bush said in the Cabinet Room.

Later, announcing the creation of a panel to educate people about their finances, Bush said he thought there would be an agreement "in relatively short order."

The White House meeting was intended to show the world that Bush and his Democratic adversaries recognize the gravity of the economic slowdown and are serious about protecting consumers and investors who have watched their holdings shrink. Wall Street and global markets fear the stimulus package outlined by Bush is not enough to avert a recession. The Dow Jones industrial average is down nearly 10 percent since the beginning of the year -- its worst first 14 trading days ever.

Official Washington was accentuating the positive.

"I really feel good that we have an opportunity to do something together," Reid said, standing in the White House driveway with Pelosi after talking with Bush. Reid said the size of a deal suggested by Bush was "a good number."

Administration officials are focusing on rebates of $800 to $1,600 for individuals and couples and so-called bonus depreciation to allow companies to deduct 50 percent of business investments made this year. Democrats say the package also should include boosts in unemployment benefits, food stamp payments and the Medicaid health care program for the poor and disabled. Talks between Pelosi and Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, have focused on smaller tax rebates of perhaps $500 for individuals.

Like Bush, lawmakers would not discuss what a compromise plan would look like, stressing cooperation rather than potential differences over details.

"This is about one thing in this package: Is it a stimulus?" Pelosi said "So whatever it is that we are considering, it must meet that one criterion: Does it stimulate the economy? Does it put money into the hands of those who will spend it?"

When the Democratic leaders were asked if they agreed with Bush's statement that the economy is inherently strong, Pelosi said, "I certainly hope so."

Reid said the House would pass a package first and send it to the Senate. Pelosi, Boehner and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson planned to talk over breakfast Wednesday.

Paulson went to Capitol Hill for talks on the ingredients of the economic package. "Time is of the essence and the president stands ready to work on a bipartisan basis to enact economic growth legislation as soon as possible," he said earlier in a speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Many analysts say the United States already has tumbled into a recession -- a notion rejected by the White House. "We are not forecasting a recession," spokeswoman Dana Perino said. "Clearly there is a slowdown."

Leaving open the possibility of a bigger stimulus package, she said, "I'm not going to close the door but I'm not suggesting that anyone believes it has to be bigger" than the roughly $150 billion figure already discussed. Later, she said the White House has not "seen higher numbers floated by members of Congress" and that Bush believes the package he has outlined is "the right amount."

The Fed's rate cut caught Washington by surprise. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues approved the cut Monday night after global markets were slammed by rising concerns that weakness in the world's largest economy was spreading worldwide.

"The world's stock markets are in meltdown, so the Fed came in with an inter-meeting move to try to stop the panic," said Christopher Rupkey, senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

The reduction in the federal funds rate from 4.25 percent to 3.5 percent marked the biggest reduction in this target rate for overnight loans on records going back to 1990. It marked the first time the Fed has changed rates between meetings since 2001, when the central bank was battling the combined impacts of a recession and the terrorist attacks.

Commercial banks responded by announcing similar cuts of three-quarter of a percent in their prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans. The action will mean the prime lending rate will drop from 7.25 percent down to 6.50 percent.

Analysts said the fact that the Fed did not wait until its meeting next week to cut rates underscored the seriousness of the situation. The Fed was expected to cut rates further, possibly as soon as their next meeting on Jan. 29-30, if there are continued signs that the economy is weakening.

"This move by the Fed was essential," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who is now a senior analyst with the Stanford Financial Group in Washington. "Bernanke promised in a speech earlier this month to take substantive action in a timely and decisive manner."

Associated Press writers Martin Crutsinger, Andrew Taylor, Deb Riechmann and Ben Feller contributed to this report.

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January 22, 2008 23:51

http://www.chinapress.com.my/con ... mp;art=0123bs00.txt

馬股猛挫54點
全球大股災
（吉隆坡22日訊）因擔心美國經濟進一步惡化，今日全球主要股市賣壓排山倒海湧入，包括馬股和亞股在內的股市全軍覆沒；美國緊急減息0.75%。

美國緊急降息0.75%

美國聯邦儲備局在大馬時間週一晚間宣佈，利率從4.25%下降至3.5%。

二戰後最嚴重危機

根據《彭博社》的資料，全球股市市值已因今年以來的跌幅，蒸發超過了5兆美元（16兆4803億令吉）。

隆綜指全日勁跌54.12點3.8%，報1354.48點，寫下逾10個月最大跌幅。

印度股市早盤一開盤更因跌幅近10%，被迫暫停交易一小時，復盤后跌幅更擴大至12%。

繼昨天平均跌幅達5%后，亞股今天災情更嚴重，平均跌幅逾7%。

國際貨幣基金（IMF）認為，世界經濟情勢危險。

受美經濟影響

另外，90年代因炒作貨幣引爆亞洲金融危機一炮而紅的索羅斯指出，全球面臨第二世界大戰以來最嚴重金融危機。

國際貨幣基金組織總裁斯特勞斯卡恩在巴黎說：“全世界都受到美國經濟增長減速的影響”，全球經濟形勢‘嚴峻’。”

斯特勞斯卡恩還說：“市場似乎並不認可布什總統提出的計劃”，並且有可能對此作出負面的反應。

索羅斯接受澳洲傳媒訪問時表示，金融市場面臨自二戰以來最嚴重的金融危機，並指美國將面臨衰退。

採取聯合行動

國際市場盛傳，各國央行將會採取聯合行動，以解決信心危機，有交易商指出，美國聯邦儲備局，或會召開緊急會議商討對策。

歐元區多位歐盟國家財政部長則信心喊話強調，全球股市擔心美國經濟有陷入衰退危險，但經濟依然穩固。

歐盟輪值主席斯洛維尼亞財政部長巴尤尼說：“我們關注所有事務，依據每日發生的事，希望事情不會像他們期待得那么壞。”

K-T

人民是善忘的，记录不记录都一样，过了一段时间又没有感觉了。

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23/1/08
http://1-apple.com.tw/apple/inde ... amp;art_id=30197286

美低估次貸 股災連環爆

【陳智偉╱綜合外電報導】追溯股災源頭，經濟學家直指當初一手種下美國房市泡沫禍根的聯準會（Fed）前主席葛林斯潘（Alan Greenspan），由於貨幣政策過度寬鬆，造成房地產價格持續上揚、房貸衍生性金融商品槓桿操作過高，導致已高度全球化的金融市場連環「爆」。



全球通膨壓力高漲
摩根士丹利亞洲董事長羅奇（Stephen Roach）指出，美國這次面臨的經濟衰退，與7年前截然不同，這次面對的不是企業支出緊縮，而是消費支出緊縮，未來唯有美國民眾改變資產依賴，回歸儲蓄習慣，才有可能扭轉態勢。
葛老上任初期曾展現以緊急降息等手段，成功化解1987年股災，讓美國經濟軟著陸，然而《經濟學人》雜誌認為，葛林斯潘而晚期的低利率政策，是美國股市與房市泡沫的最大元兇。
美國房市泡沫化後，美國房貸違約率隨房市走疲攀高，引發次級房貸風暴，讓投資次貸相關產品的金融業身陷創業以來最大危機，美國經濟瀕臨衰退的恐慌席捲全球，造成今日股市暴跌。
尤其這次雪上加霜的是全球油價、農產品及金屬等商品在資金炒作下價格飆漲，帶動物價指數上升，全球央行都面臨沉重的通膨壓力，無法如前次景氣疲弱時積極降息因應，唯恐陷入全世界最不願面對的「停滯性通膨」，即通膨上升經濟卻衰退。

布希恐留高額赤字
分析師指出，美國政府和金融業一直低估這波次貸問題，直到華爾街包括美林（Merrill Lynch）和花旗集團（citigroup）等大型投資銀行和券商，陸續公布總計上千億美元次貸損失及龐大虧損，重創金融市場，美國總統布希才端出振興經濟方案，聯準會跟著緊急降息。
不過市場人士批評，布希的振興經濟方案與聯準會大幅降息也非全無風險，布希可能留下高額財政赤字，讓接任者收拾爛攤子，而柏南克不僅得擔心通膨問題，大幅降息也正中悲觀者下懷。

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23/1/08
http://1-apple.com.tw/apple/inde ... amp;art_id=30197291

中國宏調成幫兇 熱錢撤

經濟降溫
中國經濟原是全球經濟與美國脫鉤的希望，然而中國今年經濟成長率，恐隨對美出口減緩及宏觀調控「從緊」影響，由去年目標11.5%放緩至10.5%，為7年來首度走緩；持續升息及調高銀行存款準備等宏調措施，更造成市場資金緊縮，部分熱錢從中國市場撤出，間接成為全球股市下跌的幫兇之一。


人行恐再升息2次
中國要獨自撐起一片天並不容易，中國人民銀行（人行）國際司副司長張濤即駁斥「中國經濟不受美國經濟衰退影響」論調，強調美國經濟走疲會重創中國出口貿易，進而拖累經濟走疲，對中國「絕對是壞消息」。
先前中國總理溫家寶仍強調中國經濟過熱問題，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）大中華區首席經濟學家王慶即預估，中國通膨問題依舊是政府心頭重擔，政府不會鬆手調控措施，預估人行今年上半年還會繼續升息2次，並持續調高金融機構存款準備金率。
摩根士丹利亞洲董事長羅奇（Stephen Roach）指出，儘管亞洲經濟愈來愈以中國為中心，但仍無法不受美國消費支出緊縮影響，就算中國、印度合力，也難填補美國消費支出缺口。
中國國家發改委財政金融司司長徐林日前表示，中國已設定今年GDP（國內生產毛額）年增率目標為8%、CPI（消費者物價指數）年增率目標為4.6%，將在3月全國人大通過後正式定案，目標值遠低於市場預期，顯示宏調決心愈來愈堅定。
綜合外電

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振興經濟‧美預算赤字雪上加霜
財經拼盤  2008-01-24 16:50
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/9042?tid=12

為解決美國經濟可能邁向衰退，布什政府與國會正協力促成可能高達1500億美元的經濟振興方案。不過根據國會預算處週三提出的報告數據顯示，美國今年度的預算赤字估計將高達2190億美元，而這尚未包括待通過額外的伊拉克軍事費用300億美元與經濟振興計劃。

國會預算處向眾議院預算委員會提出2008年至2018年預算與經濟前景報告。報告估計美國今年預算赤字將由去年佔國內生產總值的1.2%增加至1.5%。

國會預算處長奧沙格向議員表示，預算赤字過去3年來雖有下降，但今年將因經濟放緩導致赤字增加；此外，立法提供經濟振興或額外的伊拉克與阿富汗軍事費用支出，可能使今年的赤字再增加。

據此估計，若納入美國政府與國會表示將快速通過的經濟振興方案，今年預算赤字將超過3500億美元。美國國債目前約達9兆2000億美元。

奧沙格也警告，美國的醫療支出、人口老化、社會福利金等都可能在未來數十年增加預算壓力。

美國預算赤字在2004年時曾高達4130億美元，主要原因包括反恐怖攻擊與出兵伊拉克導致國防預算增加，及在公元2000年上台後推行的減稅措施。

根據這份報告，美國政府去年預算赤字為1630億美元，較前一年的2480億美元下降。

由於報告為去年底完成，報告並對美國經濟成長做了較為樂觀的預測，認為美國經濟成長會從去年的2.2%，放緩至今年的1.7%，而明年可望回升至2.8%。
星洲日報／財經．2008.01.24

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柏南克亂開藥‧美經濟恐大衰退
財經拼盤  2008-01-24 16:47

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/9042?tid=12

美國經濟自去年夏天以來，出現了一些衰退徵兆，政府和聯儲局忙著搶救，更在22日大舉降息0.75%，殊不知這些行為可能將為日後更大的災難，埋下了禍根。

《 Fortune》資深編輯指出，伯南克給股市的藥方，恐怕只會加速這一場疾病的惡化程度。

美國民眾對於伊拉克戰爭早已漸漸失去興趣，關注的焦點在於風中殘燭般的美國經濟。政府當然也注意到這一點，因此連忙出台許多重振經濟的方案，盼能獲得迴響。

但就像所有的短期配套措施一樣，效果通常不太持久。而最後唯一能掌控美國經濟最有權力的單位：聯儲局在週二晚緊急降息，恐怕只會將美國更往谷底推。

目前可以知道的是，美國經濟成長巨輪正在失去動力，但也有許多爭議的數據。

暴跌的房地產凍結了消費者荷包，裁員事件頻傳，借貸市場停滯。但美國去年第3季GDP為4.9%，經濟學家更估計第4季將持續成長，主要由於出口業受惠於疲軟美元而強勁，聯儲局在去年夏天挹注銀行體系，防止全面性信用危機。但信貸市場緊縮，從銀行間拆借利率（LIBOR）到垃圾債券，所有利率都在下滑。

而聯儲局不惜任何代價大舉降息，獲得了掌聲也有噓聲。貝爾斯登（Bear Stearns）表示：“我支持聯儲局，部份是因為信貸緊縮導致了現在的經濟放緩，而聯儲局降息可以有效解決這個問題。”美國銀行也說：“必須用降息來抵銷房市低迷的衝擊。”

但是《Fortune》資深編輯Shawn Tully卻不以為然，因為伯南克的一時衝動，可能將導致更嚴重的經濟衰退，就像2000年時的低利環境造成許多現在的問題，通膨的情形更加惡化，而未來聯儲局勢必將被迫再度升息。

Carnegie Mellon大學的經濟學家Allan Meltzer表示：“與其承受未來會發生的高通膨和嚴重經濟衰退，美國應該現在先忍受一點輕微的衰退，但可以把通膨率降到最低。”

同時他也警告伯南克，他的舉動正在重演1970年代的災難。當時聯儲局開始緊縮利率政策時，失業率猛增，於是聯儲局又降息以刺激就業市場，但通膨又無可避免的侵襲全國，如此的惡性循環一直不斷被重複，直到號稱“通膨鬥士”的聯儲局前任主席Paul Volcker（1979-1987）出現，通膨情形才得以降至最低。

Allan Meltzer表示：“現在跟1970年代的心態幾乎是一樣的，以擺脫經濟衰退為目的，把通膨情形放在第二位，但屆時通常已經太晚了。”

的確，美國經濟前景不明，通膨率亮起紅燈，2007年美國CPI （消費者物價指數）來到11年新高，黃金升破900美元，美金兌國際一籃子貨幣不斷創新低，聯儲局的降息舉動無疑為雪上加霜。

但聯儲局支持者似乎認為通膨的原因，全來自於能源成本升高，而且既然最近油價已經從100美元回檔至90美元附近，也意味著今年的通膨將會有所減緩。

資產管理公司First Trust Portfolios經濟學家 Brian Wesbury表示：“這種論述實屬荒謬，能源成本上升，人們減少外出機會，不代表他們會減少額外支出，聯儲局將會使經濟呈現通貨再膨脹（reflate）的狀態，引起更多錢流向高位的油價，推升其他商品價格持續上漲。”

那麼美國聯儲局到底該怎麼做才是正確的？

Shawn Tully指出，伯南克應該維持目前4.25%的利率不動，當然可能無法阻止經濟衰退，但將有效遏止通膨影響，更有利於美元反彈，有效降低國內進口產品、油價的價格。雖然美國將無法避免的承受一段衰退期，但物價終將恢復穩定，為2010-2011年的強勁經濟發展鋪路。

只可惜聯儲局已經做出無法挽回的決定，每逢經濟衰退或失業率上升，他們勢必還會再度降息。通貨膨脹的問題似乎已被冷落，在醞釀一段時日後，直到有天爆發，那麼美國經濟將出現真正嚴重的衰退，重回記憶中1970蕭條的年代。
星洲日報／財經．2008.01.24

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记录，是因为觉得事情没那么快结束。

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Inflation and bubble bursting hurt world economies

INVESTMENT SCENTS
By S. DALI
26/1/08 Star Bizweek
http://biz.thestar.com.my/bizwee ... 968&sec=bizweek


LIKE many of you, I was glued watching the CNBC the last few nights and was amazed at how many are still looking at the wrong reasons why the markets are correcting.  

Some are still explaining that the US jobs data are still good and that a recession is not likely. The markets were already factoring in a 50 basis points cut end of January. Doing an additional 25 points a week earlier: is that sufficient?  

Downward property prices and impending foreclosure won’t be helped by a 75 basis point cut. This is a correction which aggressive rate cuts won't help, the correction has to play itself out. It’s not just a US recession, neither is it US jobs situation which are killing the markets. If you cannot get to the right reasons, you will mis-read the markets.  

If you have to put it down to one reason, it’s the implosion of credit bubble. If you want a secondary reason, it will be inflationary pressures due to the excessive money supply growth worldwide for the past 5 years – which are directly linked to the primary reason.

In Australia, the M3 money supply rose 20.7% from a year ago, Brazil's M3 +17%, Canada's M3 +12.9%, China's M2 +18.5%, the Euro zone's M3 +12.3%, Hong Kong's M3 +31.5%, India's M3 +21.5%, and the United States' M3 +15.8%, a 47-year high.  

Under the leadership of Jean Trichet, the European Central Bank (ECB) has shifted far away from its monetarist roots and its original 4.5% growth target for Euro M3. Since Trichet was appointed in November 2003, the Euro M3 money supply has exploded from a 5% growth rate to an annualised 12.3% in October 2007, its fastest in history, lifting the Euro zone's inflation rate to a six-year high of 3.1%, and far above the ECB’s target of 2%.  

By doing so, Trichet has immunised the Euro zone stock markets from record high oil prices with money supply. The ECB engineered an 11% Euro rally against the US dollar in 2007, by printing money at a bit slower pace than the Fed.  

To use monetary policy to fine-tune economic activity or asset markets, or to gear it above a sustainable level will, in the long run, simply lead to rising inflation – not to faster economic growth. What we are seeing is a credit bubble being pricked. Hence, this is not just a market aberration that will correct itself swiftly. And - it is likely to take more than a few weeks to play out completely.

Not to blame just the ECB and the Fed, but most major central banks globally have been increasing annual money supply M3 at double digits since 2001. Initially it was to reflate the economies that were stricken with credit implosion issues.  

The recovery of the global economy was hastened with the emergence of China and India, both as a low cost production centre and a huge additional group of global consumers.



A new paradigm  



The US central bank has pumped a lot of liquidity into the world economy over the last four years, as a result triggering a synchronised world-economic recovery. The ample liquidity, rise of BRIC, and globalisation trend caused all commodities to surge.  

The US has to contend with lower growth compared to the rest of the world, hence explaining the underperformance of US equities relative to other developed markets and emerging markets for the past four years. The trade deficit, which the rest of the world had been financing, became the epicentre for the shift in economic paradigm. The world is not that keen to keep holding US assets as the new paradigm asserts itself. Oil trade resulted in huge surpluses for the oil rich nations. BRIC countries now have a solid economic and industrial framework to pull itself onto the global economic power platform. Currencies began to realign to the new competitive order.  

As most commodities were priced in USD, the persistently weaker USD ignited a rally in commodity prices. Added to that, demand for commodities also kicked in with strong demand from China and India.

The Fed initially increased money supply for valid reason in 2001-2002. The last few years have been adding gasoline to fuel the inflationary fire. Now it looks like everything has come to a head. The imploding sub prime mess and credit contraction looks likely to be the catalyst for the unwinding of the upcoming inflationary mess.

Even though the US has been showing signs of recession and a sub prime mess is evolving into a consumer debt problem: inflation is still very much a lagging indicator. Thus the next few weeks will see more “inflationary fears” articles in the media mixed with “US recession” debates. Not exactly fun stuff for the rest of the world.  



Bubble waiting to burst?



Inflation is a very slow cycle. The entire cycle takes anywhere from 12 to 16 quarters to work itself out of the data. Thus the weakness in the US may not be of much help to those robust countries trying to contain inflationary pressures on their own.

We have been through a long period of inflationary credit expansion but credit expansion is a self-limiting condition. Credit bubbles are merely the rediscovery by a new generation of the powers of leverage. Every credit bubble that ever existed has eventually deflated. Is this a credit bubble being pricked?  

Sure looks like one. We have essentially already reached the limit of debt serviceability that brings the merry go round to an abrupt end. We are already seeing the tightening of credit standards, the refusal of banks to lend to one another, the frozen commercial paper, the bank runs, the redefinition of what constitutes a store of value, the rejection of financial alchemy, the debt defaults, the falling prices in the housing market, the lack of confidence. These are all hallmarks of a credit bubble bursting.  

The US has basically exported inflation away from the US with the weak USD and settling for lower growth strategy, and now the problems lie more with Europe and emerging markets. Local currency will still be strong, and will have to remain strong to counter imported inflation. Production capacities have been enhanced already. The slowing US economy will hit hard in 2008.  



Twin trouble  



Another key factor is the Baltic Dry Freight Index. The Index measures the cost of moving raw materials by sea in container ships. Many economists consider the index to be a good leading indicator of economic activity; when not many people are looking to move cargo, ships will be in less demand, causing a drop in the price that shippers can charge. Recent dramatic declines in the Baltic Index have reinforced views that the US is probably heading into recession. The index has lost nearly 40% since mid-November.  

So we have the terrible twins: inflationary pressures still in the system and the credit bubble bursting. Not a pretty sight.

The coming weeks and months will see these things being played out:

· Occasional bad news about companies affected by CDOs related writedowns and bankruptcies by companies hit by higher credit cost or inability to refinance;

·Banks in the US coming to terms with worsening consumer loans;

·Fed dropping rates by 75 percentage points by February but failing to re-ignite the markets (this happened on Tuesday night);

·USD to lose 3%-5% in value in 1H2008;

·Commodities prices ease from their peaks but still stubbornly high;

·Real estate led correction hits Britain hard;

·Developed markets and emerging markets having to contend with inflation in goods and wages, plus coming to terms with a weaker US demand; and

·Some collateral damage in “good sectors” being sold down to help cover losses and redemptions in affected funds.

All said, the sooner we wring out the excesses due to the irresponsible money supply growth policies, the better. All markets will become attractive once they have fallen sufficiently. However, we have to wait for things to unfold from here. A good yardstick would be to monitor the financials in the US. Many are already trading below book value. We probably should see good value with another 5% lower from here. The catalyst which could bring about a buying platform should be a major purchase effected by a well regarded investor or institution, e.g. Warren Buffett.  

Hence it is very difficult to predict bottoms.

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Stocks Fall, Giving Up Early Gains
Friday January 25, 5:39 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080125/wall_street.html

Stocks Cap Volatile Week With Sizable Decline; Microsoft Results Help Tech Index

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street ended a tumultuous week with a sharp decline Friday, backtracking following two days of stunning gains as investors turned cautious and cashed in some of their winnings. The Dow Jones industrial average still managed to record its first weekly advance of 2008, even as it fell more than 170 points on the day.

The week, which started with a 465-point drop in the Dow soon after the market opened Tuesday, showed that the stock market is still fractious but may be going through healthy process of trying to establish a bottom following weeks of sharp declines.

Investors had an initial burst of enthusiasm Friday, sending each of the major indexes up more than 1 percent, after upbeat profit reports from big names like Microsoft Corp. and word of a possible buyout of a trouble bond insurer. But the advance proved short-lived and the eventual decline wasn't surprising given that investors putting down bets ahead of the weekend were coming off two days of big gains -- including 400 points in the Dow.

"People may be looking to take some profits off the table in this volatile market. And there's a lot of activity that's coming up next week," Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for I. A. Englander & Co., said during the day's back-and-forth trading.

President Bush is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address Monday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its first regularly scheduled meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then the Labor Department will weigh in on the state of the job market on Friday.

Despite the pullback, Wall Street's tone Friday stood in sharp contrast to the intensely dour mood that hung over the market when the week began. While U.S. markets were closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, stocks in Asia and Europe plunged amid fears of a precipitous slowdown in the U.S. economy. To stave off a similar sell-off in the U.S. over recession fears, the Fed stepped in before the opening bell Tuesday with an emergency interest rate cut.

The central bank's move to lower rates by a big 0.75 percentage point to 3.5 percent helped shore up investors' confidence and led stocks to end the day well off their lows, although they still closed down. A day later, on Tuesday, Wall Street had an astonishing about-face, with the Dow swinging more than 630 points and turning a sharp sell-off into huge gains. Stocks then extended their advance Thursday.

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates again at next week's meeting; many analysts expect a half-point cut.

With Friday's decline, the market might well be following the pattern of past corrections, when huge gains were often followed by some retrenchment. Many market watchers consider such backing and filling a sign of health. However, with much economic uncertainty ahead, investors may need months before they can decide whether to take the market solidly higher.

The Dow fell 171.44, or 1.38 percent, to 12,207.17. The Dow had been up more than 100 points in the early going.

Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 21.46, or 1.59 percent, to 1,330.61. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 34.72, or 1.47 percent, to 2,326.20.

Despite the huge moves seen during the week, stocks finished not far beyond where they began, with the Dow adding 108 points, or 0.89 percent. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.41 percent and the Nasdaq lost 0.59 percent.

Declining issues outpaced advancers by about 3 to 2 Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume came to 4.78 billion shares, down from 5.48 billion shares traded Thursday.

Government bond prices jumped as stocks declined. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.56 percent from 3.71 percent late Thursday.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose. Light, sweet crude oil advanced $1.30 to settle at $90.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Investors are looking for clues about whether the market is due to add to its gains after a brief hiatus or whether another pullback is in the offing. Despite the increases logged this week, stocks are still down sharply in the new year.

"The market is extremely sensitive to any news that's out there. A year ago, it brushed off a lot of stuff. Now, it's just the opposite, and we're seeing reactions nearly immediately when things come out," Fullman said.

Despite giving up the early gains, Wall Street still appeared pleased by reports from U.K. newspapers that billionaire Wilbur Ross was in talks to acquire bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. Financial woes at many U.S. bond insurers have caused headaches in recent weeks for investors worldwide who have worried that tightness in the credit markets could worsen should one of the companies buckle under an inability to draw new business.

Ambac rose 21 cents to $11.54.

Word of Ross' interest follows comments this week by New York State regulators that indicated they would consider lending support to shore up the struggling bond insurance industry. While uncertainty remains over what role regulators might play, the comments initially helped reassure Wall Street and made room for stocks to rally.

Other corporate news appeared to offer investors mixed readings on the economy.

Microsoft finished down 31 cents at $32.94 after spending much of the session higher. The company raised its forecast for the rest of its fiscal year, which ends in June, and said its quarterly earnings jumped 79 percent. Microsoft cited the growing importance of its sales outside the U.S.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 4.12, or 0.59 percent, to 688.60.

Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 0.12 percent, Germany's DAX index finished off 0.06 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.76 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average jumped 4.10 percent after falling sharply earlier in the week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index likewise surged 6.73 percent by the close.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week up 107.87, or 0.89 percent, at 12,207.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished up 5.42, or 0.41 percent, at 1,330.61. The Nasdaq composite index ended down 13.82, or 0.59 percent, at 2,326.20.

The Russell 2000 index finished the week up 15.42, or 2.29 percent, at 688.60.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended Friday at 13,423.62, up 115.17 points, or 0.87 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 14,358.67.

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病来如山倒，病去如抽丝。
只要用合理的价钱投资在有赚钱的公司就不必怕了。
守株待兔，海底捞月 是我的策略。

Shearer9

索羅斯的預言
股市看來是喘了一口氣。看來，伯南克的降息猛藥，讓投資者服下定心丸。
只是，牛氣已老，是不爭事實。
接下來，老牛往哪兒走？伯南克的貨幣政策，以及美國政府的財政措施，能否救了老牛？
各家有各家的說法，說不得準。
然而，索羅斯最近“唱衰”美國和全球經濟，說半個世紀以來，最嚴重的經濟
危機已經來了，引起行家的關注。
當然，在馬哈迪等的眼裏，索羅斯是金融大鱷；不過，放在全球水平，索羅斯是投資天王。他的看法，有參考價值。
索羅斯投文英國《金融時報》，洋洋灑灑，引經據典，有根有據。這裏我只能略為介紹。
他說，這一次的金融危機，有別於過去的經濟循環，超出了“盛而衰，衰而盛”的週期，而是一次結構性的崩潰。
過去60年，全球經濟的繁榮，是建立在“信用擴張”的基礎上。美國國內無止境的消費，帶動了全球經濟的成長；然後，全球各國又通過購買美元和美國債券，支援美國的國內消費。
每當這種信用擴張的模式遇到困難，政府就會介入，讓情況緩和，渡過難關。
問題是，這只是治標的做法，它使到信用繼續擴張，泡沫愈來愈大，埋下惡果。
譬如貸款太容易取得，帶動了需求，繼而推高屋價；屋價上漲，又提供再融資的便利。換句話說，就是借了再借。
金融機構配合這個市場，推出五花八門的金融衍生工具，各種次級金融市場出現，根本無法控制，連規模也難以確定。
一旦其中一個缺口崩堤，就產生骨牌效應，兵敗如山倒。
美國次級房貸危機，爆發至今已一年，黑洞猶未見底，提供了注腳。
次級貸款危機會延伸到債券抵押市場，進而危及抵押擔保保險機構，再來就是再保險機構。
政府使出最後一招，投入巨額資金救市（正如布什政府目前的做法），延展信貸，反而加劇危機。
最後，就是維持了60年的信用擴張時代結束，取而代之的，是信用緊縮時代。
屆時，美國採取保護措施，連帶使全球經濟陷入衰退。
不過，中國和印度等新興經濟，受打擊程度不比美國等西方國家嚴重；於是，全球經濟重組，形成西方衰退，中印崛起的局面。

索羅斯的預言，信不信由你。

988fulot10

美国死定了,,,还是死灰复燃,,,还是中国,印度的天下,,
时间表可以证明一切,,,,

sogrlcc

美国地产大跃进累及全球

（2008-01-26）
       

● 朱易（洛杉矶）
http://www.zaobao.com/yl/tx080126_502.shtml

美联储本月22日作出惊人之举，一次减息三码，减幅之大，十几年少见。要是在以往，全球市场一定一片雀跃，股市跳空上长。可惜22日的美国股市并未出现惊喜，反而是一片惊慌。消息公布后，股市即开盘跳空下跌，道琼跌幅一度高达400多点。

　　减息三码还让投资人惊慌，这说明投资人对联储局没有信心。他们拿不准联储局为何要下那么重的手来挽救经济，只能猜想，要么经济已经糟到非要下猛药不可的地步，要么就是联储局过往对已经恶化的经济反应迟缓，如今只好矫枉过正。无论哪种情况，对投资人而言，都是坏消息。既然是坏消息，此时不逃，更待何时。

　　这一波经济动荡，起源于银行给买房人和重新贷款的客户大开绿灯，毫无节制地放款，结果许多人把房屋净值当作提款机，市场上资金过剩，造成房地产价格疯涨，以“房地产大跃进”来形容也不为过。

　　银行之所以敢不管客户信用好坏都敢放款，是因为他们相信可以把贷款变成债券出售，让整个市场来承担风险。显然，如果只是个别贷款人的坏账，这种分散风险的方式的确有效。问题是，一旦形成系统性的坏账风险，就会累及整个市场。由于美国市场的全球性以及全面性，进而就威胁到全球经济的稳定性。

　　美国某个小地方的居民信用不好，但仍然能够获得全额房贷，住进新房，最终又因利率上升，付不出贷款，只好将房子还给银行，使银行手上有越来越多这样的空房子。看上去是地方性的经济新闻，但最后竟演变成全球性大股灾，其规模甚至可比九一一惨案后的市场状况。这真的值得经济学家认真研究，写上几本专著。

　　有人直指造成这次经济危机的人是格林斯潘，因为他的错误利率政策造成房地产大跃进，以致泡沫破灭，经济衰退。

　　这种说法没有严谨的科学根据，但肯定有许多投资人认为有道理。因此，当联储局一举减三码救经济时，反而让他们更为惊慌，原因无其他，是因为这种做法与格林斯潘当初的做法太相似了。他们能不害怕吗？结果，市场以惨跌回应。

　　常言道，理论有对错，市场永远都不会错，投资人还是小心为妙！

·作者是经济分析师

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Fed Cuts Rates Boldly; Wall Street Wary
Thursday January 31, 3:18 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

(http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/fed_interest_rates.html)

Fed Cuts Interest Rates a Bold Half-Point to Boost Ailing Economy; Wall Street Still Wary

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve delivered powerful new relief to people and businesses squeezed by the ailing economy Wednesday, cutting interest rates ever deeper in an effort to avert or at least soften the blow of a recession.

The bold, half-point reduction approved by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and all but one of his colleagues came as President Bush and Congress raced to enact a separate rescue package -- including tax rebates for individuals and tax breaks for companies -- to help energize an economy in danger of stalling.

Heartened by the Fed's newfound aggressiveness, Wall Street rallied but then pulled back, still wary. The Dow Jones industrials jumped more than 200 points after the announcement but ended up down 37.47.

Commercial banks followed the Fed action by lowering their prime lending rate by the same half percentage point -- to 6 percent, the lowest in nearly three years. That prime rate applies to certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other loans.

Hours before the Fed's action, the government reported that the nation's economic growth had stumbled to a virtual halt. The economy grew at just a 0.6 percent pace from October through December, and for all of 2007 it logged its weakest performance in five years.

The collapse of the housing market, sour mortgage investments and much harder-to-get credit are weighing on people and businesses alike. Foreclosures have hit record highs, and banks have racked up multibillion-dollar losses. The fallout has shaken Wall Street, catapulted the economy to Topic A among worried families and galvanized political figures, including those vying to be the next president.

"The economy is hanging by a thread," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

While Wednesday's interest rate cut was welcome, the Fed's blunt new assessment of the economy was sobering for everyone from business owners to people worried about debts to anyone without a job -- or fearful of losing one.

"Credit has tightened further for some businesses and households," the Fed said. "Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets."

In its 9-1 decision, the Federal Reserve dropped its key rate to 3 percent at the end of a two-day meeting. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was the sole dissenter. He preferred no change.

It was the second Fed rate cut in just over a week, and the policymakers signaled they were prepared to keep going lower if needed.

There had been a rare, three-quarter point reduction last Tuesday. Bernanke had convened an emergency session after stocks worldwide plummeted, intensifying recession fears. The cuts have helped to restore some confidence among skittish investors, but financial markets remain fragile.

In the gravest challenge to his leadership since becoming Fed chief nearly two years ago, Bernanke must help stem the fallout from both the housing bust and a credit crunch. Wall Street critics and others have taken Bernanke to task for waiting until September of last year to embark on a rate-cutting campaign, accusing the Fed chief of being behind the curve in dealing with the economy's problems.

Bernanke also must be mindful of not letting inflation get out of hand -- a delicate and tricky maneuver. Oil prices have receded from $100 a barrel but still remain high. The Fed said it expects inflation to ease in coming quarters but added that it is imperative to monitor developments carefully.

Still, more rate cuts are expected at the Fed's next scheduled meeting in March and beyond. Some economists predict the key rate could drop as low as 2 percent this year, which would be the lowest in four years.

"The Fed needs to throw out a life raft to the economy pending the fiscal stimulus measures," said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.

Even further action might not avert a recession but rather limit the damage. The interest rate cuts will take months to affect the economy, as will any stimulus package approved by the government. Neither effort will quickly cure the root cause of the economy's troubles: a severely depressed housing market and bad mortgage investments.

The economy may actually be declining now. Under one rough rule, it would have to contract for six months in a row for the country to be considered in a recession. The likelihood of a recession has risen sharply over the past year, and analysts increasingly believe the U.S. will be in one during the first half of 2008. The worry is that people and businesses -- which turned more cautious at the end of the year -- will hunker down, sending the economy into a tailspin.

Bernanke is not expected to cut rates as deeply as did his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, when Greenspan took on the 2001 recession, the economic fallout of the Sept. 11 attacks, a series of accounting scandals that rocked Wall Street and the uncertainty that gripped the country leading up to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

By the summer of 2003, Greenspan had slashed rates to 1 percent, a 45-year low. He held rates there for a year before the Fed began pushing them back up.

Critics contend those low rates helped feed a housing frenzy, in which home values zoomed and investors gobbled up risky loans, known as subprime mortgages, to borrowers with poor credit histories. When the housing market collapsed, the greatest damage was in subprime loans. Banks and other financial institutions have taken big hits on these soured mortgage investments.

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Financial Turmoil Likely to Continue
Thursday January 31, 5:50 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard and Dan Seymour, AP Business Writers
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/financial_turmoil.html

After Subprime Woes, Uncertainty Around Bond Insurers Could Be Next Storm

NEW YORK (AP) -- As bad news about the financial system piles up, trust -- the pillar of investing -- is being buried.

The most recent fears are tied to the potential failure of bond insurers, the companies that back the funding for hospitals, schools and other public works. A meltdown there could deliver another devastating blow to battered banks and force higher taxes on homeowners.

That has made it difficult for the Federal Reserve -- even with its aggressive rate cuts recently -- to restore confidence and quash the volatility and uncertainty.

"The biggest issue is people just don't really know how big this is," Davin Gibbins, chief investment officer at Aris Corp., said of the losses banks could face. "People don't know the size of the problem, and markets hate uncertainty."

"People are afraid to make business decisions," said Donald Light, a senior analyst at Celent.

The risk that bond insurers could lose their top-notch credit ratings comes after world stock and credit markets have already been shaken by billions of dollars in losses tied to subprime mortgages, or loans given to customers with poor credit history.

The Fed has made two rate cuts totaling 1.25 percent in the past two weeks in an effort to spur new investments through lower interest rates. But some investors are hesitant to make any investments, regardless of price.

That uncertainty has created wild swings in the market as every bit of information is analyzed.

Stocks fell sharply in early trading Thursday as investors fretted over a $2.3 billion loss at bond insurer MBIA Inc. and the prospect of new downgrades in the industry. By the end of the day they were higher, taking heart from a pledge from MBIA's chief executive that the company could retain its credit rating and raise fresh capital.

Over the past few months, ratings agencies have downgraded or threatened to cut bond insurers' financial strength ratings, saying the companies -- which make payments on bonds when the issuer is unable to do so -- do not have enough extra cash to cover a potential spike in claims.

A downgrade from the crucial "AAA" rating would likely end the insurer's ability to book new business.

Standard & Poor's placed MBIA on a negative credit watch late Thursday and downgraded Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. Fitch Ratings had previously downgraded other bond insurers -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. and Security Capital Assurance Ltd. -- as well as FGIC.

The downgrades have led to a series of problems for municipalities who rely on the insurance.

If an insurer's rating falls, bonds backed by the insurer fall as well. The lower the rating, the higher the cost.

"Clearly the cost for insurance is going up," said Richard Tortora, president of Capital Markets Advisors, which provides bond advisory services for municipalities in the Northeast.

There was about $2.6 trillion in municipal bonds outstanding as of Sept. 30, the latest figures reported by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. More than half of municipal bonds carry insurance, Tortora said.

Any increased price on that insurance is "passed on to the taxpayer," Tortora said.

Exactly how much larger of a burden taxpayers will shoulder depends on the underlying credit rating of the municipality.

"The prices for lesser-grade borrowers has widened rather significantly," said Tim Long, a managing director and investment banker focused on public finance with Robert W. Baird & Co.

While cheaper bond insurance helps municipalities, rising insurance costs are unlikely to stop them from issuing a bond, Long said. The municipalities also have been helped by the rate cuts, Tortora said.

The Fed moves have helped to offset the higher insurance prices, so municipalities have been able to avoid higher costs from the insurance uncertainties. But if the Fed is unable to keep up, the cost to governments will rise.

The distress gripping bond insurers has caught the attention of lawmakers in Washington, who have been consumed for months in politically charged debate over possible remedies for the mortgage market crisis. A key House Democrat, Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania, is seeking information from regulators and has raised the issue of whether tighter regulation of the bond insurance industry may be needed. Kanjorski plans to hold a hearing on the matter in February.

New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer said Thursday that a plan by the state's insurance regulator to bail out struggling bond insurers was making good progress -- though no specifics about the plan have been disclosed.

Financial institutions, which already wrote down about $150 billion of subprime-related exposure last year, could be seeing billions more in losses from bond insurers.

Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS AG and other banks may post another $70 billion in write-downs should bond insurers lose their top credit ratings, according to Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney.

The three banks -- among those hit hardest from the subprime meltdown -- are the most exposed to troubled U.S. bond insurers. Merrill Lynch has already charged off $2 billion associated with ACA Capital, which S&P lowered to junk status in December.

On top of any new losses tied to bond insurers, further losses from the subprime mortgage fallout are still likely. S&P said Wednesday that it is considering cutting the rating on more than $500 billion in mortgage-backed bonds, which could lead to further losses.

S&P estimates total mortgage-related losses at financial services firms could reach $265 billion.

AP Business Writers Joe Bel Bruno and Jeremy Herron in New York and Marcy Gordon in Washington contributed to this report.