【PERDANA 7108 交流专区】柏达纳

阿水哥

Potential tie-ups drive premiums in oil, gas sector                       
Written by theedgemalaysia.com          
Thursday, 03 February 2011 16:55

Extracts of a report by OSK Research

KUALA LUMPUR:  The share prices of oil and gas (O&G) stocks are undergoing a re-rating, largely fuelled by positive market sentiment and strong news flow.

Going forward, we think that partnerships or actual contract awards will be the main ‘push’ factor for further share price upside and the lucky companies will continue to outperform those which lack news flow.

Our average sector PER valuation is raised from 13.2 times to 16.6 times. Maintain Overweight on the sector, with our top picks being Kencana Petroleum, Alam Maritim, Petra Perdana and Petra Energy.

Sector undergoing a re-rating. Recently, the share prices of most O&G stocks have been on an uptrend, fuelled by a wave of positive news, including:

i) the Government’s efforts to promote the development of marginal oil fields; ii) expectations of new O&G contracts being announced soon; iii) oil price having broken past US$70-US$80/barrel, and iv) the sector being “ripe” for a re-rating after a 13-month consolidation.

JVs the next ‘push’ factor. We believe that any bigger companies resulting from M&As or partnerships will garner valuations that are higher by 20%-50%, depending on their combined size and the potential synergy to be derived from the mergers.

Our educated guess for potential partnerships include: i) Kencana Petroleum with Petrofac; ii) Alam Maritim with Coastal Contracts; iii) SapuraCrest Petroleum with Petra Perdana and Alam; iv) Coastal with Ramunia; v) Tanjung Offshore with oil majors, and vi) Wah Seong with KNM.

Note that these are purely conjecture on our part, and are based on potential synergy or market rumours, rather than any indication from company management.

The strong shall prevail, the weak will fall. We believe that the re-rated share prices of O&G stocks will consolidate at current levels. Any further upside would depend on actual contract awards and the flow of potential JV news, whereby the stocks involved would have their earnings re-rated upwards.

However, the share prices of companies that lack such catalysts may fall back. Hence, investors should be selective in their stock picks.

阿水哥

Introducing 3 new picks: Alam, Petra Perdana and Petra Energy

Since mid-2010, we have been promoting Kencana as our one and only pick for the O&G sector and the company’s earnings and share price have indeed performed up to our expectations.

We are now starting to introduce more stock picks since sentiment in the sector is positive and based on our prediction on the potential flow

of new contract awards, we believe that Petronas and its PSC contractors would next be looking at the hook-up and commissioning works as well as maintenance, which should benefit players like Petra Energy. Of course, when this happens, the full support of vessel operators would be needed to assist in carrying the fabricated structure, workers, food, water, chemicals and so on, which should benefit players like Alam and Petra Perdana.

asiakeroro

（吉隆坡16日訊）國家石油（Petronas）在砂拉越岸外發現龐大油氣田，估計蘊藏2兆8千億立方呎天然氣及1億桶原油。隨此新發現，將延長大馬油氣儲備壽命，分析員給予領域“加碼”評級，看好涉足油田發展與生產者，為主要受惠者。

國油透過砂拉越岸外的S K316及SK306區域，在NC3及Spaoh-1油井發現重大油氣開採，前者開採深度是離海域的4千公尺以下，初步估計擁有2兆6千億立方呎天然氣；Spaoh-1油井則從去年12月起開採，料蘊含1億桶原油及20億立方呎天然氣，開採深度是離海域的3千公尺以下。

大馬油氣儲備壽命延長
原油24年天然氣38年

大馬研究指出，上述消息增添領域喜氣，主要是新發現將延長大馬油氣儲備壽命，其中原油為24年，天然氣達38年。

僑豐研究指出，大馬截至1月的油儲備達40億桶，因此，上述油田發現佔總儲備約2.5%，儘管如此，無法確認未來石油生產貢獻。大馬在2004年達到每日86萬2千桶生產後，自2009年每日生產69萬3千桶石油，超過50%產量來自Tapis油田。

多家公司受惠

達證券對該消息看法正面，相信提供鑽井、安裝、岸外裝配和營運、海事工程與工程、採購和建造等服務的公司，如必達能源（PENERGY,5133,主板貿服組）、必達（PETRA,7108,主板貿服組）、丹絨岸外（TGOFFS,7228,主板貿服組）、沙布拉浪峰（SAPCRES,8575,主板貿服組）、海事重工（MHB,5186,主板貿服組）與鵬達集團（PANTECH,5125,主板貿服組）有望從中受惠。

生產方面，設備管理、船艦支援與加密鑽井服務提供者，也可望隨油田儲備規模攫獲長期合約，包括船艦業者與維修服務公司如必達能源、必達、丹絨岸外與沙布拉浪峰。

達證券表示，該消息無可避免為國油造好，令該公司有能力在短期內分配更多資本開銷，若油價繼續在現有水平徘徊，預見國油淨利表現出色。

達證券看好領域短中期內受該消息振奮，首選為科恩馬集團（KNM,7164,主板工業產品組）、鵬達集團、必達能源與貝利賽（PERISAI,0047,主板工業產品組）。

達證券認為，丹絨岸外與必達股價上漲空間超過15%，必達交易價仍低過賬面值22%，因此予“買進”評級。

中東潛在衝突油價或再飆高

埃及總統穆巴拉克下台有望暫緩油價狂舞情緒，分析員維持2011年原油價預測每桶80至90美元，但中東國家其他潛在衝突依然是隱憂，若革命火苗蔓延至中東石油高儲備國，或掀起供應隱憂，促使油價再度起舞，這對大馬油氣領域有利。

僑豐認為，穆巴拉克下台在某程度上將壓制油價“亂舞”情況，為領域短期內造好，惟油價短期不會回返每桶70到80美元水平，主要是埃及的革命成功可能點燃其他中東國家的革命火苗，並影響油價走勢。

僑豐雖預見中東國家發生更多衝突，惟相信不包括人均國內生產總值高的中東國家，如沙地阿拉伯與其他人均國內生產總值超過1萬美元國家。這些國家也是中東石油儲備最多的首5國，除了沙地，還有伊朗、伊拉克、阿聯酋和科威特。

“政變緊張局勢蔓延至沙地的可能性不高，因為該國的人均國內生產總值高，加上保安戒備足夠，而石油財富也有望鎮壓任何反抗情緒。”

僑豐表示，也門、阿爾及利亞、敘利亞、利比亞與約旦可能重演埃及事件，但這些國家，除了利比亞，其他石油儲備不多，料不足以影響油價。

沙地原油儲備最高

儘管如此，儲備量最高的沙地阿拉伯，年約87歲的國王阿都拉的繼承問題可能是一大隱憂，僑豐坦言，他已設立委員會管理其繼承問題，但若事情無法順利進行，難免掀起汽油供應短缺危機。

以目前全球經濟而言，僑豐相信石油至少在未來兩年內不會衝上每桶147美元巔峰，主要是大部份國家自經濟衰退中恢復元氣，正趕上升息抗通膨的列車，相信石油需求不會在短期內達高峰。

此外，美元對一籃子主要貨幣走貶也有推波助瀾功效，美元在過去12月已走低，而油價也在每桶70至80美元間盤整。值得一提的是，之前油價漲勢凌人主要歸咎於投機問題，在供應無實質短缺下，短期內料不重演油價急飆風險。

僑豐相信油價未來受衝擊情況不嚴重，維持2011年原油價預測每桶80至90美元，2012年介於90到100美元，若政變問題在中東高儲備國發生，油價可能再度狂飆，才放緩或正常化至每桶80到90美元，畢竟供應與需求依然主導原產品價。

星洲日報／財經‧2011.02.16



这对petra有正面的影响吧！！！

阿水哥

KUALA LUMPUR: Oil and gas marine services outfit Petra Perdana Bhd could be a major beneficiary of jobs stemming from Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) recent deep-water finds at Sarawak’s NC3 and Spaoh-1 deep-water wells. However, it may have to reflag its non-Malaysian flagged vessels to qualify for the jobs.

Deep-water oil wells generally require bigger support vessels with more brake horse power (bhp), such as those owned by Petra Perdana.

Petra Perdana has a mixed fleet of 25 vessels, of which 14 are larger vessels above 9,000bhp, which would make them ideal for Petronas’ new oil finds in Sarawak.

Other local companies that have larger vessels include Alam Maritim Resources Bhd and Jasa Merin (M) Sdn Bhd, which is 70% owned by SILK Holdings Bhd. However, these companies have very small fleets of such vessels.      

The majority of players in the business, such as Tanjung Offshore Bhd, focus on shallower waters. Tanjung’s fleet of vessels are mostly below 6,000bhp.  

When contacted by The Edge Financial Daily, Petra Perdana’s managing director Shamsul Saad did not confirm or deny the possibility of new jobs but merely said: “The bulk of our vessels have the capability to handle offshore support services in most Malaysian deep-water oil fields and we believe we will be in a competitive position to vie for such jobs

阿水哥

However, some of Petra Perdana’s vessels are non-Malaysian flagged, which could pose a problem as oil major Petronas generally opts for Malaysian flagged ships.

Some of Petra Perdana’s vessels, currently flagged in Belize, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands, may be reflagged in Malaysia.

“Petra Perdana’s strategy is to place some vessels for local charters and some for the overseas market. As a result we have a mix of local and foreign flagged vessels. The composition of the mix varies from time to time depending on market conditions and our mix of prospective clients,” Shamsul said in a phone interview.

He declined to elaborate on the matter.

International law requires that every merchant vessel be registered in a country, and the vessel flies the flag of its country of registration. Companies generally flag their ships in other countries as a means to reduce operating costs and taxes.

It is understood that some of Petra Perdana’s vessels were flagged abroad due to requests made by financiers.

An industry observer said Petra Perdana’s practice of flagging its vessels abroad is understandable considering there have not been many local deep-water contracts for offshore support vessels in the last two years. This could account for Petra Perdana’s weak financial performance as its ships saw low utilisation and charter rates.   

Over the past several years, crude oil prices have been volatile, slumping from a record high of US$145 (RM439) per barrel in July 2008 to a low of US$30 in December 2008, before climbing to nearly US$100 now in the wake of political turmoil in Libya.

One analyst said the volatility prompted Petronas to focus more on shallow-water exploration, where break-even levels and risks are lower. The analyst said if the need arises, Petra Perdana could reflag its ships without much difficulty.   

It is also noteworthy that, with only a handful of jobs on the local front, charter rates for larger vessels are low, at between US$1.80 and US$2.20 per bhp per day. This is almost comparable to the rates for smaller vessels, which typically range between US$1.70 and US$1.80 per bhp per day. In the past and in other parts of the world, larger vessels fetch much higher charter rates.

阿水哥

“There have not been many jobs available (locally), hence the low rates. It’s been flat for very long actually,” said Arhnue Tan, ECM Libra’s oil and gas analyst.

The awarding of jobs could be a lifeline for Petra Perdana, which has not been performing well lately.

For its nine months ended September 2010, Petra Perdana suffered a net loss of RM53.11 million on the back of RM179.2 million in revenue. For the corresponding period in 2009, the company posted a net profit of RM25.27 million from RM486.26 million in sales.

Much of the decline in revenue was attributed to the company selling 30% of its equity interest in oil and gas brownfield services provider Petra Energy Bhd.

In the notes accompanying its financial results, Petra Perdana said its losses were a result of one-off mobilisation costs, taking delivery of new vessels in 2010, higher finance costs and foreign exchange losses, among others.

Nevertheless, the prospects for the company could improve if it bags some of Petronas’ deepwater jobs from the new wells in Sarawak.   

Petra Perdana ended trading at RM1 yesterday, slipping four sen. Since mid-January Petra Perdana’s stock has shed some 20% of its value.

The stock is trading below its net assets per share of RM1.40 as at Sept 30, 2010.

samwoon

petra 还值得买进吗？？
我想买进13张会冒险吗？

wufei173

可以长期收~~会生蛋的股~

1009

可以   只要你的钱多到用不完的时候。

牛士

股价上了那么多你才要买。大市不好很容易住套房的。

calvien

DIALOG死不了的股，而且长期向上的，只要是多余的钱（不动产）。买来收是可以的。

samwoon

回复 5# calvien


    我爸在RM1.70的时候买进了～然后又放了～
我爸说这个股是可以买的～
我爸叫我一人一半12千～
我就想看买的过吗～
有dialog股的消息吗？

阿水哥

Dialog 股价已高，现在买回会点迟了。不过LZ还是可买来长期收。O&G股在未来会有做为，PETRONAS未來5年的資本開銷達到2千500億令吉，並專注在國內探勘及生產，將使油氣相關領域受惠．

ＬＺ　可以选些油氣領域股来投资如：
１）必達（PETRA, 7108, 主板貿易組）
２）必達能源（PENERGY, 5133, 主板貿服組）
３）國油氣體（PETGAS, 6033, 主板工業產品組）

sengseng

现在股价还可以..不过要从低捞起..要有心机..可能中东会给到你机会..
这股是长线投资...没耐心的人就别买....它很难爆发...不过一爆发..就飞了

samwoon

回复 8# sengseng


    我还是小孩子所以有的想～我是想我18岁出来做工的时候就有比较多钱了～
现在我才15岁～所以还要很多时间～

calvien

15岁跟老爸分半12千买股票.....很多水。

kopikong

15岁？小心你老爸骗你啊！

no3no4

Dialog 股价已高，现在买回会点迟了。不过LZ还是可买来长期收。O&G股在未来会有做为，PETRONAS未來5年的資本 ...
阿水哥 发表于 6-3-2011 10:10

    這些股對我來說都很貴下。


PERISAI 可以嗎？

wufei173

Dialog 股价已高，现在买回会点迟了。不过LZ还是可买来长期收。O&G股在未来会有做为，PETRONAS未來5年的資本 ...
阿水哥 发表于 6-3-2011 10:10 AM

    petra ~~内乱哦~~

阿水哥

petra ~~内乱哦~~
wufei173 发表于 7-3-2011 10:47 AM

    内乱以经OK了。2010 年是wash out year for Petra,2011 会比较好。希望今年的 O&G budget 会大大力推上股价。