【~~q个人专区~~个人专区】Wealth takes time价值投资

q

大家好，小弟的专区，做个记录
2年前就投资了，2008年就开始关注市场，但是会回酬不怎么样。
综合自己的失败，和别人的意见，慢慢领悟一些东西。

谢清海-value partner（惠理基金）-,别人称他为asian warran buffet,马来西亚人，给了我一些启示 ，
不买蓝筹股买小股本股票，买净现金公司或低债务，peg小过1(quantitative measure)
还有其他qualitative measure ,example future business prospect,value chain,CSR, moat,five force portal etc


不买蓝筹股是因为公司在成熟阶段 ,市值已经很难倍升,买在成长阶段的股票,举例，KLK不可能2年种植200000 hectare palm oil,但是小公司有 30 000 hectare palm oil的,可以很快2年种植额外30,000 hectare 。

Revenue不能翻倍，盈利如何翻倍？如果profit margin低，EPS增长也缓慢，这就是买high profit margin的原理(% growth in revenue* Net profit margin=% growth in EPS)





Focus investing-只专注几个股票
Overall market risk will not be eliminated merely by adding more stocks to your portfolio. “Joel Greenbalt “

以下是我看好的一些股票，
主力
ELsoft -The Company is principally involved in research, design and development of test, burn-in and application specific embedded system.

The Group is involved in the research, design and development, and production of test and burn-in systems and application specific embedded systems, material handling equipment and robotic factory automation equipment. The Group’s key product i.e. test and burn-in systems are used by its customers who manufacture optoelectronic devices such as LED, image sensors and automotive lightings to test their products before launching into the market

Client-Avago(avago client-apple,samsung,LG),philips,osram

1)Elsoft (peg ratio 0.1,Pe 10.Dividend yield -4.41% or 3 cent per annum,0 debt,net profit margin 39%,NPM 30% above over 5 yrs)
-export business (RM is devalue,and euro,US is doing well,the oversea demand still high)
-sustainable growth over 4 years (recently profit growth 43% Y-o-Y)
-high net profit margin business - indicating this company have special products or service
-0 debt ,healthy balance sheet
-generous dividend policy,2009- 1 cent, 2010-1 cent,2011-2 cent 2012-3 ent, 2013-3 cent-Dividend growth rate 64.4%
-new factory in 2014(total 2 factory,built up using cash)
-2013 -outsoursing sales 9 million according the director interview on the star,indicating unfulfilled sales

strategy-hold until right issue ,director sold out the right to increase public spread ,and transfer to mainboard

1)BUMITAMA (平均树龄 6 年, 低债务,很大的未开发耕地 ,profit CAGR 35%,
value partner 2.2 % 持股票 @0.90 sgd ，是个最大的机构投资者 ，IOI持有 30 % （技术合伙人).本人持有这个股票
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bumitama_Agri

2)Tuneins ,(peg ratio 0.54,净现金公司，现金生意无赊账， quick ratio 603x ,gpm -75% ,npm -20%，0 债务,等他收购成功,价格自然水涨船高
-catalyst
-泰国2013 8月官方声明可能要外国人买旅游保险因为泰国每年要为200 millon thai baht买单 。
-大批现金在手。RM 200 million
-保险购买率 take up rate-只有10%,先进国家80%，高成长空间
-AIRASIA 3月进军印度，今年大马旅游年
-和北非中东廉价航空合作           

3)TSH -树龄 8 年,低债务

4)Daiman-3.8% dividend yield,净现金公司,严重被低估 ,很多未开发土地在新山,

今年会攻2个股票tuneins
和另一个个股4.xx % dividend yield（at 50% payout ratio） ,PE 10 ,PEG-0.1,EPS double ,net cash company no debt,high growing industry,consistency 4 year growth,等我买了很多才说哈哈

个人愚见，不构成任何买卖建议

p/s-如何分辨在成长阶段?
收入 -双位数增长 (增长大于9%)
现金表-大量的资本开销(CAPEX - capital expenditure)
股息支付率 少于 50 %(通常 30-40%),保留现金来发展

成熟阶段
==========
收入单位数增长
股息支付率 60%或更多 (因为收入难增长，所以现金回馈给股东)
现金表-资本支出小.
时常收购竞争者（因为必须通过收购来增长（inorganic growth)，收入增长（organic growth)已达到饱和的现象)
通常是市场领导者
现金牛，通常低负债或0负债


Remarks-(share price as at end of 13/1/14)
Bumitama-0.93sgd
Tuneins-1.95
TSH-2.88
Daiman-3.10
elsoft-0.65

As At 4.2.2014
KPJ-WB-0.65

KPJ医疗股是基本需求,non cyclical
KPJ-WB五年的成长空间大，每年8%增长，目标价RM4.80。
2010 revenue increase 13.6% , 2011-15.4%,2012-9.8%

今年portfolio只有4个个股
主力 ELsoft,0.65，因为free float只有 6%， 30 大股东持有94%
第二主力kpj-wb,avg price 0.65
第三Tuneins - average price 1.84
第四bumitama- 0.96 sgd

现在在收集tuneins

我做的tuneinsurance
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3q2mlxs76ilybtp/tuneinsurance.pptx

tuneinsurance官方
http://ir.chartnexus.com/tuneins ... r%20Presentation%20(Main)%20-%20Nov%202013%20v3.pdf

q

1. Wealth takes time.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's investing partner, put it best: "You don't have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long, long time."

Warren Buffett is a great investor, but what makes him rich is that he's been a great investor for seven decades. Of his current $60 billion net worth, $59.7 billion was added after his 50th birthday, and $57 billion came after his 60th. If Buffett started saving in his 30s and retired in his 60s, you would have never heard of him. His skill is investing, but his secret is time.

Understanding the value of time is the most important lesson in all of finance. The single best thing we can do to improve the financial state of Americans is encourage people to save from as early an age as possible.


2. Most financial problems are caused by debt.

I have a family friend who earned several hundred thousand dollars a year as a specialist in an advanced field. He went bankrupt a few years ago and will probably need to work for the rest of his life. I know another who never earned more than $50,000 a year but retired comfortably on his own terms.

The only real difference between these two friends is that one used debt to live beyond his means while the other avoided it and accepted a realistic standard of living.

Just as saving gives you options in the future, debt takes options away. Not having the option of flexibility is the root of most financial problems. You can be a brilliant worker (or investor) and find yourself in financial ruin if you don't respect the power of debt. Income, wealth, and standard of living aren't as correlated as people think.



3. Forecasting market returns is close to impossible. Worse, it's dangerous.

A stock's future returns will equal its dividend yield, plus its earnings growth, plus or minus changes in valuations (earnings multiples). That's really all there is to it.

Dividends and earnings growth for many companies can be reasonably projected.

But what about the change in valuations? There's no way we could possibly know that.

Stock market valuations reflect people's feelings about the future, swinging between optimism and fear. And there's just no way to know what people are going to think about the future in the future. How could you?

If someone said, "I think most people will be in a 9.26% better mood in the year 2024," we'd call them delusional. When someone does the same thing by projecting 10-year market returns, we call them Wall Street analysts.

We know a group of high-quality companies will build wealth for their shareholders over time. But we can never be specific when trying to guess what the stock market might do going forward. Assuming we can predict exactly what stocks will do in the future makes us blind to risk and uncertainty. Coming to terms with an unpredictable future forces us to be nimble and prepared. You can guess which group does better.

!

4. Simple can be better than smart.

Someone who bought a low-cost S&P 500 index fund in 2003 and left it alone earned a 97% return by the end of 2012. That's great! And they could have spent the last 10 years at the beach, or hanging out with their kids.

Meanwhile, the average fancy professional market-neutral hedge fund -- many of which are staffed with PhDs and some of the world's fastest computers -- lost 4.7% over the same period, according to data from Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Indices. The average stock-trading equity hedge fund produced a 96% total return -- still short of a simple index fund.

There are no points awarded for difficulty in investing. Smart people who devote their entire lives to investing can (and often do) fail, while some of the simplest investing techniques you can think of are wildly successful. Good businesses run by good people purchased at good prices held for as long as possible. That's it.



5. The odds of experiencing stock market volatility are exactly 100%.

Most investors understand that stocks produce superior long-term returns, but at the cost of higher volatility. Yet every time there's even a whiff of volatility in the stock market, the same cry is heard from investors around the world: "What the heck is going on?!"

The majority of the time, the honest and correct answer is the same: Nothing is going on. This is normal and just what stocks do.

Since 1900 the S&P 500 has returned about 6% per year, but the average difference between any year's highest close and lowest close is 23%. Volatility, even really severe swings, is perfectly normal and shouldn't be feared.

Accepting market volatility as normal and focusing on the businesses I own is a lesson I've learned from Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner. David is one of the brightest investors I know, and has one of the best track records in the industry. His ability to remain steadfast in the face of market volatility is astounding. David's service, Supernova, is about to open to new investors for the first time in months. Click here if you're interested in how he does it.

As we head into 2014, one of the best things you can do to improve your experience as an investor is remind yourself that investing may not be easy, but it's not difficult or complicated. Professional investors and pundits make it seem complicated because they think of it like medicine, complex and dependent on detailed knowledge. It's not. This isn't brain surgery. All we're doing is spending less than we earn, saving the difference, investing it, and waiting.

stevenwan1

恭喜开楼~~
开楼大吉

碟立飞

哇，新楼。。
进来坐坐。。。期待更多你的分享

ivan.1983

恭喜恭喜~新的一年，新的一楼。

看的很累，一下中文，一下英文。

q

ivan.1983 发表于 14-1-2014 09:30 AM
恭喜恭喜~新的一年，新的一楼。

看的很累，一下中文，一下英文。

finance jargon很难华文翻译的
PEG我就不懂叫什么了
何况我们看的 报告都是英文的

MYVVI

新年赚大钱!

phan82

恭喜，恭喜，恭喜开楼~~~~

Ongong88

恭喜大大开新楼

iamyunhao

恭喜新楼开张~~~

xiang_rain

留下記號。期待lz分享

maxlow80

新年到了，祝Lz

williamnkk81

q 发表于 14-1-2014 10:11 AM
finance jargon很难华文翻译的
PEG我就不懂叫什么了
何况我们看的 报告都是英文的

不是問題來的。。。 我也是天天英文報告。。。 但我可以用華文講解和介紹的咯。。。

williamnkk81

加油。。。 不錯的。。。 我建議。。慢慢發覺自己的投資方式。。。 因為投資是很個人的。。。

高飞

谢谢楼主分享。
我个人就看个股现金流、和有派股息的。
有时会忍不住，因为图表美而买进。
偶尔也会买些CW炒回一两手。

Haqi8888

恭喜開樓
開樓大吉！

q

今天开市扫了一堆KPJ-WB在RM0.66,拿了大红包
第三天上市第一分钟才有机买
会hold到第四年才卖

wpi

很多人包挂身边同志，有了消息不敢说，怕多人知道买了股价会起，小虾米会打动股价，就像REDTONE & MYEG最气人，标到很高朋友才告须我有政治人物早就和他说了要大起。'(

colour15

q 发表于 4-2-2014 08:38 PM
今天开市扫了一堆KPJ-WB在RM0.66,拿了大红包
第三天上市第一分钟才有机买
会hold到第四年才卖

大大好眼光。

米奇之家

谢谢你，楼主。
不错的分享