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Oil to remain around $55 this year: IEA
Published: Feb 9, 2015 8:12 p.m. ET
Sara Sjolin
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-to-remain-around-55-this-year-iea-2015-02-09
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Don’t be fooled: Oil prices might have staged impressive rallies over the past two weeks, but that could be it for this year’s price rebound.
In its “Medium-Term Oil Market Report” published Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said it sees Brent oil LCOH5, -1.06% averaging $55 a barrel in 2015, below even Brent’s currently depressed level of $58.
It only looks a little better for 2016, where Brent prices are expected to climb to $60 a barrel, before sneaking up to $73 by 2020, according to the IEA’s price assumptions derived from the futures curve.
Despite the recent advance for crude futures, “the market does not seem to be expecting prices to revisit earlier highs anytime soon. Not only have prompt prices collapsed, even price expectations for the back end of the curve have been significantly downgraded,” the agency said in the report, which was published on the first day of the International Petroleum Week event in London.
The price assumptions mark a steep downgrade from last year’s IEA report, when prices of $100 a barrel in 2015 and 2016 were expected, before sliding to just below $90 in 2020. However, that was before the 50% price-crash that has taken place since the summer, spurred by tepid energy demand and a supply glut caused largely by the shale boom in the U.S. (Read: Here are the reasons oil is plunging)
The price collapse has already taken a toll on the oil industry, with project delays, layoffs and cancelled spending. Several institutions have cut their production-growth estimates for 2015, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries saying Monday it sees non-OPEC supply growth down by 420,000 barrels a day, compared with previous estimates. In January, the IEA slashed its forecast for the increase in non-OPEC oil supply this year by 350,000 barrels a day. The knock-on effect is that OPEC is likely to see stronger demand for its crude to meet the world’s total expected oil use of around 93 million barrels a day in 2015.
“The rules of the oil market have changed,” the IEA said in Tuesday’s report. “The clear distribution of roles between OPEC and non-OPEC countries that governed the oil market for the last 30 years has been suspended, at least for now. Non-OPEC producers cannot, for now, count on OPEC to act as swing supplier and cut output in the event of a price drop.”
Oil prices moved a sharp leg lower in November last year, when OPEC at a closely watched meeting opted to make no changes to its production levels, much to the surprise of analysts. Oil prices have since spent time below $50 a barrel, hitting more-than-five-year lows in 2014 and early 2015.
Even at such low levels, however, demand growth was relatively weak last year. According to the IEA, the world will eventually start asking for more oil, with demand rising to 99.1 million barrels a day by 2020. That would indicate growth of 1.2% a year, though that’s still below the 1.9% seen in the pre-crisis era.
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发表于 9-2-2015 11:11 PM
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