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【BONIA 9288 交流专区】宝利机构

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发表于 6-9-2006 08:18 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 icy97 于 25-10-2011 03:30 AM 编辑

情牵沙地的命途

说起 BONIA, 华人都应该没有兴趣,所以就有了以上的主题。

Historical Diluted EPS
2003 = 5.23 sen
2004 = 15.47 sen = 成长 196.05%
2005 = 16.96 sen = 成长 9.58%
2006 = 28.40 sen = 成长 67.50%
2006 PE = 1.35/0.284 = 4.75
2006 ROE = 0.284/2.01 = 14.13%
(加上即将派息 10 sen, ROE 则大过 15%)
DY = 0.10/1.35 = 7.41%

Current Debt 显著改善
Cash Flow 显著改善

什么条件下凭单可以至少开一翻?(只限投机份子)
四大开翻条件(凭单转换价 = RM 1.00)
1。母股被炒高 26% !
2。母股 2006 PE 来到 6 !
3。2006 DY 来到 5.88% !
4。明年盈利成长 26%,PE 保持 4.75 !

两大‘技术’分析
1。盈利高成长四年多,种种财务指标逐渐改善,股价却三年多徘徊不涨。
2。失落的成交量。

九大利好展望:
1。中东拓展如预期般,达到至少 10 间 outlet 的目标。(年头才有两间)
2。其中东的地位,受欢迎程度真的如传说中和 Louis Vuitton 平起平坐。(虽然我不相信)
3。明年 2007 是大马旅游年,中东游客有增无减。
4。今年年尾 AGM 拓展政策再现魄力,继续放眼成长。
5。2001 - 2004 派息 5 sen; 2005 - 2006 派息 10 sen;2007 派息 = ? sen
6。失落的 PE。
7。分红股,再转入主板。
8。进军南非。
9。ROE 首次迈入 15%。

十大风险:
1。以色列军队开入沙地阿拉伯。
2。油价暴跌,中东沙地,一夜之间,负债累累,货币贬值,经济萧条。
3。明年大马,政治经济,风暴再现,股市下跌,持续恶化。
4。2007 大马旅游年失败告终,retail 陷入低迷。
5。Sang Sem 是真的 samseng。
6。黑白乌鸦,真假账目, 满天飞舞,无间道路,继续上演。
7。连续高成长四年,够了。
8。产品战略改变路线,和 PADINI 硬碰硬。
9。PE 下挫至少过 4。
10。DY 升至大过 10%。




[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 3-12-2007 05:56 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 6-9-2006 08:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
can provide detail of price chart within 4 years?
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发表于 7-9-2006 12:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
BONIA 速本地品牌吗??
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发表于 7-9-2006 07:49 AM | 显示全部楼层
Bonia是本土服装品牌。
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发表于 7-9-2006 08:58 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 os 于 6-9-2006 08:18 AM 发表
说起 BONIA, 华人都应该没有兴趣,所以就有了以上的主题。

Historical Diluted EPS
2003 = 5.23 sen
2004 = 15.47 sen = 成长 196.05%
2005 = 16.96 sen = 成长 9.58%
2006 = 28.40 sen = 成长 67.50%
20 ...


os 兄,

为什么说 "华人都应该没有兴趣" 呢? 有什么特别的原因嗎?
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 楼主| 发表于 7-9-2006 09:56 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 cari288 于 7-9-2006 08:58 AM 发表


os 兄,

为什么说 "华人都应该没有兴趣" 呢? 有什么特别的原因嗎?

纯粹是我个人觉得罗,华人会比较少帮衬她,觉得大多年轻华人都帮衬 PADINI 较多。
而且 BONIA 是走较成熟高贵路线,并以皮革为主,其风格设计沿有意大利色彩,马来友族以及中东人会比较喜欢她,应该是口味和肤色的关系吧。
也会适合任何出席晚宴的贵妇贵夫们。

其名下品牌,合作品牌有:(虽然全不是什么超级大牌,但都有其强烈的风格)
1. Sembonia
2. CarloRino   ( www.carlorino.net )
3. BALENCIAGA   ( www.balenciaga.com )
4. Roberta di Camerino
5. SANTA BARBARA
6. Valentino Rudy   ( www.valentinorudy.com )
7. Carven   ( www.carven.fr )
8. TimePiece   (watch)


旧闻:
Bonia to expand in Middle East

BONIA Corp Bhd plans to set up 12 more outlets in the Middle East by June next year in view of the overwhelming response, particularly in Jeddah, Saudi

Arabia, to its leather bags and fashion accessories
.
Group managing director Albert Chiang said the expansion plan was in line with the group's target to export more of its products overseas.  
The Middle East, he said, would be one of the most important markets besides Asean, China and Japan.
“We already have two outlets in Jeddah. Our new outlets will be located in and around Jeddah as well as in Riyadh,” he told a press conference after the

group's annual product exhibition of the Bonia and Bonia Uomo 2005/2006 collection at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre yesterday.
Sales at our outlets in Jeddah have been very encouraging. We are getting an equivalent of between RM8,000 and RM10,000 in sales in each store a day

,” he said.  

Albert Chiang
Chiang said he expected the group's export market to grow by between 20% and 40% over the next three years.
On the group's business in Vietnam, Chiang said it was riding on the success of the Parkson department stores group to help sell its leather products.  
“We have two outlets in Ho Chi Minh City and sales have been encouraging. We plan to set up five or six more outlets in Vietnam soon,” he added.
In Malaysia, Bonia operates 32 boutiques and more than 200 counters in various department stores. It plans to set up five more boutiques in leading

shopping centres in the country.
The group would be introducing a special “made to order” concept on selected designs of handbags and purses to be sold at selected Bonia outlets, Chiang

said.

x x x

Bonia to invest up to RM5mil for outlets overseas
By Isabelle Francis , Sep 13, 2005

Bonia Corporation Bhd, which recently launched its flagship boutique in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, is investing between RM3 million and RM5 million to set up

more outlets abroad, said group-managing director Albert Chiang.
This includes setting up 12 outlets in Jeddah and Riyadh and a few more in Europe and China by the middle of next year, he said.
"The Middle East is progressing well for us, as we opened the Bonia flagship boutique in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, about four months ago, and this has already

generated a good sales track record within a short period," he told reporters at Bonia's annual product exhibition in Kuala Lumpur on Sept 13.
Chiang said the flagship boutique in Jeddah achieved sales of between RM8,000 and RM10,000 per day, which is higher than the average sales in

Malaysia.

He expects the export business to contribute 20% to the company's sales in 2006 and up to 40% in the next three years.
"Each country has a different business model. For some, we have a joint venture with a local partner, and (for others), we appoint a dealership franchise. This

is the first time our partner in Saudi Arabia, the Savola Group, is involved in franchising. So, it's an opportunity for us," he added.
Chiang projected Bonia's sales to grow between 15% and 20% by next year.
On the local front, he said, the company would open five more boutiques, bringing its nationwide network to 33 boutiques and over 200 counters at

departmental stores by next year.

"The smallest boutique here usually costs between RM800,000 to RM1.3 million. Like our Shah Alam boutique, it cost RM1 million," he said.
Citing a survey done by the Shopping Malaysia Secretariat, Chiang said foreigners spent RM6.6 billion last year on shopping in Malaysia, with clothes, textiles

and bags being the main purchases.
He added that, on average, a shopping tourist spends RM400 per visit while an Arab visitor spends RM5,000 per visit.

x x x
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发表于 7-9-2006 07:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
不知道zomok新加玻也是蛮多人用Bonia的.
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发表于 8-9-2006 08:06 AM | 显示全部楼层
Bonia走高档路线,价格也高档,在一般支那明(Cina Beng)的消费能力之外,所以才会令6楼的有“华人会比较少帮衬”的错觉。
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 楼主| 发表于 13-9-2006 02:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
不知道zomok新加玻也是蛮多人用Bonia的.

Bonia 说她新加坡机场就有有四个分店,可能新加坡人出国带不够衣鞋,或皮包坏掉在那边买吧。

Bonia走高档路线,价格也高档,在一般支那明(Cina Beng)的消费能力之外,所以才会令6楼的有“华人会比较少帮衬”的错觉。

谢谢楼上的纠正。看来华人的支持者也不少。
今天,星洲日报主版连续间接三页来势汹汹,看来这个七百万是认真的。

先来两段在日本的时装展:
(不知道以这样的风格设计进军海外够秤吗?)
http://www.ledonn.com/impressionism/Bonie_net.wmv
http://www.ledonn.com/impressionism/BONIA_05_Impressionism.wmv


几段快讯:

明年700萬廣告促銷 寶利營收增20%       13/9/2006   
( 吉隆坡1 2 日訊) 寶利機構 (BONIA,9288,二板消費股)計劃在2007年投入700萬令吉,作為廣告與促銷費用,同時放眼在大馬旅遊年的刺激下,預計其07年營業額將會增長20%。

寶利機構董事經理張興慶表示,相較于2006年500萬令吉的廣告與促銷預算,2007年的促銷預算將會增加200萬令吉至700萬令吉。而2007大馬旅遊年將會讓多方面受益,包括涉及零售領域的寶利機構,因此預計2007年銷售額的成長將會達到20%。

他在業務匯報與年度產品展銷會的記者會上說,「,寶利機構已成功在香港國際機場取得2個新地點,以開設專賣店,預計將在今年杪開張。每家專賣店的投資額約為100萬令吉。」

目前,該公司在東南亞各國的共有13家機場專賣店,相信機場已成為另一個受歡迎的購物場所,這同時也能增加公司品牌對國外遊客的曝光度和知名度。

截至目前為止,寶利機構的海外專賣店共有200家,而在本地則已經達到300個櫃台和38間專買店。

張興慶說,「外銷市場佔集團總銷售額的30%,預期在未來的 2至3年間,其比例會增加至40至 45%,公司最終目標則是將其增加至50%的比重。」

x x x x

Bonia sees 60% overseas contribution to revenue
By Ooi Ying Nee,  Sep 12, 2006

Bonia Corporation Bhd will open two boutique outlets at the Hong Kong International Airport by year-end, as part of its expansion plan to achieve a revenue target of up to 60% from its overseas operations in three to five years' time.

It has set aside a 40% jump in allocation for advertising and promotion exercise to RM7 million next year.

The new outlets will further enhance its international brand image. Plans are also afoot to set up boutique outlets in Dubai airport next year and possibly in Kuwait.

It currently has 13 airport outlets, including four at Singapore's Changi Airport. The company's 200-odd overseas retail outlets are in Brunei, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

Bonia group managing director Albert Chiang said the company intends to double its overseas contribution in the next three to five years. Bonia's overseas contribution to the group's revenue has doubled from 15% to 30% in the last two years.

Commenting on the investment for its overseas expansion, he said the company would invest RM1 million in each of the two boutique outlets in Hong Kong International Airport.

"Some RM7 million has been allocated regionally (for advertising and promotion exercise) for 2007, a RM2 million increase compared to what we had set aside regionally for this year.

"It is part and parcel of the branding exercise for our group to get our brand to international tourists. Hong Kong is one of the most attractive tourist destinations, be it Asian or globally," he told reporters at Bonia and Bonia Uomo's "City Kaleidoscope" product exhibition 2006/2007 in Kuala Lumpur on Sept 12.

Going forward, Chiang expects the company to see better sales and profit margin with the tourism initiatives taken by the government for Visit Malaysia Year 2007. The company expects a 20% sales growth by its fiscal year ending June 30, 2007.
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发表于 26-9-2006 06:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
PADINI 现在大起了。。。我觉得bonia也很不错。。。不只大家觉得如何?
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发表于 2-10-2006 10:36 AM | 显示全部楼层
bonia今天我在1.52买进了少少
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 楼主| 发表于 4-10-2006 09:00 AM | 显示全部楼层
Thinly traded
Saturday September 23, 2006, By ALAN VOON

Warrants

THE share price of apparel and leather goods retailer Bonia Corp Bhd has slowly crept up after the company reported a sterling set of results at the end of August.  

As local investors concentrate on main board blue chips currently, quality second board companies like Bonia may need some time to attract interest.  

Bonia closed last Wednesday at RM1.37 on very thin volume. Its warrant Bonia-WA closed at 37 sen.

Bonia is a home-grown branded apparel and leather goods company.  

The company recently reported a 70% jump in net earnings to RM13.8mil for the financial year ended June 30, 2006.  

Bonia’s profit grew steadily over the last few years but investors remained cautious as the company has a fairly large net borrowings of some RM45mil.  

The company has net asset per share of RM2.01 and is trading at a historical price earnings ratio of less than 5 times based on its latest fully diluted earnings per share of 29 sen.

Bonia-WA has been relatively thinly traded.  

This is typical of many second board warrants. As of now, Bonia-WA is trading at its intrinsic value with no premium.  

Historically, Bonia-WA tends to trade near its intrinsic value as the company pays relatively good dividend of 10 sen per annum and the volatility of this share is quite low.  

With relatively high borrowings, paying good dividend may not be too value enhancing, especially for the holders of Bonia-WA.

Due to its dividend yield of 7.3%, Bonia-WA is now trading at an implied volatility of 38%.  

This is higher than the company’s short-term historical volatility of 18%. Bonia’s historical volatility in the last one year ranged from as low as 8% to almost 40%.  

This is quite low for a second board company.  

This also partly explains why the warrant does not justify for very high premium.

Bonia-WA has a gearing of 3.7 times (x) and an effective gearing of 2.5x.  

(Gearing indicates the extent by which the warrants rise or fall given a one percentage point rise or fall in the price of the underlying share.  

This is especially useful when the warrant becomes in-the-money like in the case of Bonia-WA.  

While gearing assumes a similar change in the prices of the underlying share and warrant, effective gearing takes into the consideration of delta.  

Delta indicates the change in a warrant’s theoretical value, in absolute terms, given a one-unit change in the price of the underlying share.  

Effective gearing therefore gives a more accurate measure of actual leverage provided by the warrant.)

In Bonia-WA case, an investor investing in the warrant can expect it to outperform the underlying share by 2.5x when the underlying share goes up.

Shareholders of Bonia, who are betting on big advance in its share over the next one year, may consider switching from Bonia underlying share to Bonia-WA.

For every Bonia share he sells, he should theoretically buy 1.47 unit (arrived by dividing 1 with the delta value of 0.68) of Bonia-WA to approximate the same upside potential as if he is still holding on to Bonia share.  

This way, the investor can free up cash of 82.6 sen for every Bonia share he sells. If Bonia share price declines to below RM1 upon expiry and if he does not do anything, the maximum loss he would suffer is 54.4 sen although Bonia-WA tends to be more resilient at a lower absolute price.  

For less liquid warrants like Bonia-WA, it is best used for switching purposes.  

Trading Bonia-WA would be unwise considering the underlying’s low volatility unless investors expect a big spike in volatility due to some unexpected corporate developments.

Alan Voon is a warrants specialist and can be reached at alan@warrantscapital.com
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 楼主| 发表于 4-10-2006 09:03 AM | 显示全部楼层
论 ROE, Turnover, Net Profit, Profit Margin, NTA , D/E, Cash Flow 等,BONIA 是无法和 PADINI 相提并论的。
论基本面,PADINI 几乎赢完。
更明显的是,PADINI 是主板,BONIA 是次板。
这也是为何 PADINI 可以有 PE > 8 的价位,而 BONIA 只有失落的 PE <= 5。
不过,吸引我的是 BONIA 的 EPSG, 低 PE, 低流通量,和 WA。
其凭单最大的忧虑是限期不够长。
较早老板放眼明年 Sales 要 +20%,业务将注重海外连锁扩充。
更据史料预测分析,连锁海外拓展,Profit Margin 有潜能走高。
我希望明年 EPSG 至少可以有 25%。
如果做得到,那么 07 EPS 可以来到 RM0.35。
如果 PE 同样落寞,股价则 0.35 x PE 5 = RM1.75
如果转板,股价则有机会 0.35 x PE 7.5 = RM2.60
如果市道好加上炒作,则有机会 0.35 x PE 10 = RM3.50
如果传说中,PE > 30 的大牛东吴再起,那么 0.35 x PE 30 = ... (对不起,大牛在我心中已死,还是 EPS=0.35 * PE=6 实际点)

x x x
BONIA 最近轻微的卖压是来自 Finance Director。持股虽不多,但还是不懂为何急着卖,希望只是要用钱吧。
更多的资料,包刮 10 sen 股息,应该要等到年尾的 AGM 了。
至从上个季度报告公布后,股价已鲜少回调,已经越来越难买进了。

另外,BONIA 的宣传费的确十分惊人,都是用在海外居多。
Oh my divas, KD~    Ku Tak Sanggup... Mencintaimu


最新新闻:
沙地目标,从10间,提升到20间!

b]Bonia takes Saudi Arabia by storm

KUALA LUMPUR: Saudi-based Savola Group wants to open up to 20 Bonia and Carlo Rino boutiques in Saudi Arabia by the end of next year.

This is following strong demand for the Malaysian high fashion leatherwear and accessories, said an official from Savola.

Savola already had seven outlets in Jeddah, Riyadh and Taif, said Raed Jameel Monagel, general manager for the franchise division.

“Response to Bonia products from consumers in my country has been phenomenal,” he said. “It was only in May last year that we opened our first Bonia store in Jeddah.”

In a recent interview with Bernama, he said Savola would have seven Bonia boutiques and two Carlo Rino outlets by year-end.

By end-2007, there will be 14 Bonia boutiques and six Carlo Rino stores in Saudi Arabia.

Originally an edible oil entity set up in 1979, the Savola Group now wants to be the most successful publicly listed company in the Middle East with diversified interests.

It is already the largest retail food chain in the Middle East through its Panda and Azizia supermarkets.

Bonia is involved in the designing, manufacturing, marketing and retailing of leather goods for the local and overseas markets.

It controls about 40% of the Malaysian fashion leather goods market.

Besides ladies’ handbags and purses, Bonia has diversified into luggage, briefcases, belts, footwear and men’s apparel under the Bonia, Carlo Rino, Bonia Uomo and Sembonia brands.

“Most of our customers are from Saudi Arabia. But there are some from other parts of the Middle East,” said Raed.

As such, Savola was eyeing other markets in the region like Dubai and Kuwait, whose consumers also had strong purchasing power, said Raed, who was here to preview Bonia’s latest 2006/2007 collection. – Bernama
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发表于 5-10-2006 10:49 AM | 显示全部楼层
os 大大,能知道你买了多少BONIA和BONIA-WA和它们的平均价吗?

我在BONIA-WA RM0.40 买了100 lots(1 lot = 100 units)
之后又在 RM0.50 买了100 lots.
现在BONIA-WA 的价钱已经接近 RM0.60了,心情真复杂,不知道应不应该卖,怕卖了之后它还会再升.

原本我想买BONIA的,但是想到如果我买BONIA-WA的话我能买更多,所以到最后选择买BONIA-WA了.

希望母股明年能升到RM1.90,那BONIA-WA就能升到RM0.90.
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发表于 5-10-2006 03:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
os老大的分析很赞。。。我想问在现在的阶段没能力转版吗?
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发表于 5-10-2006 03:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
os老大的分析很赞。。。我想问bonia在现在的阶段没能力转版吗?
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 楼主| 发表于 5-10-2006 11:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 chew_hong 于 5-10-2006 10:49 AM 发表
os 大大,能知道你买了多少BONIA和BONIA-WA和它们的平均价吗?

我在BONIA-WA RM0.40 买了100 lots(1 lot = 100 units)
之后又在 RM0.50 买了100 lots.
现在BONIA-WA 的价钱已经接近 RM0.60了,心情真复杂,不知道 ...

我一共持有600's的WA。平均价0.3507。
买进最低0.30,最高0.51。

chew_hong大大,关于几时卖,和要不要卖的问题,我实在不知怎么回答。
我昨天甚至在 0.51 继续买进少少,主要是提醒自己,这仍然是一个买进的价位。
买进后,我应该不会再买了。就继续守着。
(有时波动太剧烈,我也会卖出一些,以便达到心里平衡,不然就忍住不卖罗...)

BONIA 今年 28.4 sen 的 EPS 已经成为历史。
根据种种中东,香港等等国际机场/市场拓展的迹象,和中东好口碑的反应,加上明年是大马旅游年等等,
明年净利要 +25% 应该不会太过分。加上老板的销售目标也锁定 +20%。
忧记得年前老板预测销售可以大约 +15% ,结果 2006 Turnover 真的加了15%,但净利却猛涨了 67%!
如果明年 EPS = 0.35, PE = 5.5 的话,股价 = 0.36 x 5.5 = 1.98
只需要 5.5x 的 PE, 股价便可以突破 RM2!这样的 PE ,我个人是觉得相当低估,十分保守。
还有,走高档路线,品牌最重要,这就要看 BONIA 接下来的品牌打造了。
只要品牌越响,越多人知道,PE 应该也会提高吧...
另外,BONIA 将会在年尾公布 10 仙股息,这将是股价其中一个重要支掌点。
(我本来预测在年尾 AGM 之前股价不会有作为的...)


原帖由 wwy 于 5-10-2006 03:22 PM 发表
os老大的分析很赞。。。我想问bonia在现在的阶段没能力转版吗?

谢谢你。投资路上,我总是战战兢兢,不求百发百中,只求做足功课。
要转主板,最重要的条件是 paid-up capital 必须是 RM60 million @ RM1.00 par。
BONIA 现在 paid-up 是 48,485,000。
七年前发过附加股。
如果不要再发附加股,则必须至少进行 4 送 1 的红股计划,才有资格问鼎主板。
BONIA 现在的 NTA 是 2.01,送到尽的话可以 1 送 1。
如果资本按兵不动,则必须等到 2008 年中,20 多 million 的凭单转换去母股。


来,轻松一下,看看帅哥美女:
最新 Kaleidoscope 系列:










A collection full of verve and attitude
http://thestar.com.my/news/story ... 520&sec=central
BONIA 的七百万用在那里呢?
And, to beef up the 2006/2007 collections, Bonia will embark on an aggressive marketing campaign to drive the sales of its new collections in the international market.

以下的灿烂星光,帅哥美女,你认识几个?
Part of the campaign includes the participation of high-profile Asian artistes, namely Sheila Majid, Ferhad Ibrahim, Rosyam Nor and Fauziah Latiff from Malaysia, Kris Dayanti from Indonesia, Singapore’s Tay Ping Hui, Pierre Png, Michelle Chia and Jessica Liu, and Raymond Lam, Ron Ng, Shermaine Tse and Bernice Liu from Hong Kong.
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chew_hong 该用户已被删除
发表于 15-10-2006 07:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
os大大,你能不能和我们分享一下你是怎么选股及做功课的吗?

你之前所写Mahsing,LKT和Bonia都比之前升了不少,实力是有目共睹的.
如果你不吝赐教,希望可以在你身上学习如果选股,做功课.

(另外,有些后悔当初没在Bonia-wa RM0.60的时候把它卖出,之后再低价买回.)
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chew_hong 该用户已被删除
发表于 15-10-2006 09:44 PM | 显示全部楼层
股名        介绍日期      当时价钱      现在价钱(13/10)

LKT         1/8/2006       3.20          3.84(升了20%)
BONIA       6/9/2006       1.36          1.56(升了15%)
BONIA-WA    6/9/2006       0.365         0.57(升了56%!!)

以os大大的功力,我相信2年之内开番都不是问题.
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cct65 该用户已被删除
发表于 16-10-2006 12:54 AM | 显示全部楼层

不好意思 !
借问 BONIA-WA 什么时候到期 ?
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