火烧连环船

aidj

@前程似锦 问小弟的问题：

之前有分析谈道，大批住宅3－4年后竣工，到时出租市场supply 过多，以租养贷的屋主须要降低租金，直接造成屋主negative cash flow。
到时，屋价可能将走低。

在下认为，这分析是以以下assumption为前提：
1. 多数屋主holding power不好
2. 多数屋主买屋子并非自住
3. 某些情况可能发生，屋主需要短期内抛售（贷款利息，经济表现，汇率，政府政策，等等因素）

不敢各位大大/前辈面前
班门弄斧



首先借《金钱崛起》以最简单的方式，讲解大家难以理解的金融现象，现金、资本、货币、财产等等。（我也是一知半解）

接下来就是重头戏~~如何印钞票。

钱从何而来

钱要往何处去

跟着以3个假设为前提，举例分析。如有得罪，请各位海量。


参考图书：《货币战争5》第四章利率火山，最后的审判日
参考视频：資源導向型經濟 VS 人類史上最大的騙局

aidj

To understand the power of these three innovations, first-year MBA students at Harvard Business School play as implified money game.

It begins with a notional central bank paying the professor $100 on behalf of the government, for which he has done some not very lucrative consulting. The professor takes the banknotes to a bank notionally operated by one of his students and deposits them there, receiving a deposit slip.

Assuming, for the sake of simplicity, that this bank operates a 10 per cent reserve ratio (that is, it wishes to maintain the ratio of its reserves to its total liabilities at 10 per cent), it deposits$ 1 0 with the central bank and lends the other $90 to one of its clients.

While the client decides what to do with his loan, he deposits the money in another bank. This bank also has a 10 percent reserve rule, so it deposit $9 at the central bank and lends out the remaining$81 to another of its clients.

After several more rounds, the professor asks the class to compute the increase in the supply of money. This allows him to introduce two of the core definitions of modern monetary theory: Mo (also known as the monetary base or high-powered money), which is equal to the total liabilities of the central bank, that is, cash plus the reserves of private sector banks on deposit at the central bank; and Mi (also known as narrow money), which is equal to cash in circulation plus demand or 'sight' deposits.

By the time money has been deposited at three different student banks, Mo is equal to $100 but M i is equal to $ 271 ($100+ $90 + $81), neatly illustrating, albeit in a highly simplified way, how modern fractional reserve banking allows the creation of credit and hence of money.

The professor then springs a surprise on the first student by asking for his $100 back. The student has to draw on his reserves and call in his loan to the second student, setting off a domino effect that causes M i to contract as swiftly as it expanded.

This illustrates the danger of a bank run.Since the first bank had only one depositor, his attempted withdrawal constituted a call ten times larger than its reserves.

The survival of the first banker clearly depended on his being able to call in the loan he had made to his client, who in turn had to withdraw all of his deposit from the second bank, and so on.When making their loans, the bankers should have thought more carefully about how easily they could call back the money - essentially a question about the liquidity of the loan.

Extracted from The Ascent of Money, Niall Ferguson, page 49

hao1030

大大好有学问哦
我相信一升利息就会看到不多人半死了，骨牌效应后就更多了
大家要做好准备。

前程似锦

walau，够复杂。
没有金融相关背景，很难完全吸收。
只能半理解半tikam。

文中提到的，银行之间的无现金借贷关系，挤兑的危险性，直到骨牌效应。
是不是和前几年雷曼兄弟那次的金融危机一样？

认同文中提到的，M0 是有限且被控制的。
M1 ，M2， M3， 直到Mn ，却可以无限扩张。

房贷，也是其中一个Mn ，在近几年火热房市得到很大的扩张。
以M0 有限的前提，对金融体系将是一个潜在的危险。

这里我有点不明白。
挤兑，在什么情况下会发生？
挤兑的危险性，有多高？

aidj

前程似锦 发表于 29-5-2014 11:14 PM
walau，够复杂。
没有金融相关背景，很难完全吸收。
只能半理解半tikam。

先暂时忘记兑挤。

把重点放在美联储QE3 tapering上
这点你能够明白多少。

教授如同FED一样开始收水

我们也知道……不是那么容易的

因为

让我欢喜 让我忧 爱到尽头 覆水难收 爱悠悠 恨幽幽 为何要到无法挽留 才能想起你的

不明白，谷歌大神或摆渡
以上提供参考资料。

前程似锦

aidj 发表于 29-5-2014 11:23 PM
先暂时忘记兑挤。

把重点放在美联储QE3 tapering上

QE系列带动低利息，高金融活动，扩张Mn。
而QE3 tapering 把这趋势硬生生斩下，来个刹车，
所以我把QE3 tapering 理解为“间接收水”

不懂对不对。
请前辈赐教。

aidj

前程似锦 发表于 29-5-2014 11:35 PM
QE系列带动低利息，高金融活动，扩张Mn。
而QE3 tapering 把这趋势硬生生斩下，来个刹车，
所以我把QE3 ...

QE3 tapering 把这趋势硬生生斩下，来个刹车

刹车
就是因为不可以刹车，所以才要减速呀。
FED一点一点削减QE规模，就是怕大规模削减QE将会导致股市的震荡或崩盘。

wooyen

aidj 发表于 29-5-2014 11:49 PM
刹车
就是因为不可以刹车，所以才要减速呀。
FED一点一点削减QE规模，就是怕大规模削减QE将会导 ...

QE退场後,好像要慢慢从市场收回美金

digidigi

前程似锦 发表于 29-5-2014 11:14 PM
walau，够复杂。
没有金融相关背景，很难完全吸收。
只能半理解半tikam。

挤悦就是你担心malaysia要泡沫了，你担心bank收不到借贷人的钱要倒了，所以你去bank拿回你的deposit，这样一来，原本是没事的，但是就因为大家的忧虑，结果就真的造成bank一下子被提太多钱，最后多到他真的没钱给回你们了。

在大马，bank negara是有给gaurantee的，就是即使银行倒它会gaurantee你的deposit，不过limit多少我忘了。这样做是提高信心并稳定金融市场。

金融机构之间的借贷也会发生挤悦的问题，并造成钱荒和资金链断裂的问题。

IMResources

不知道你们有看过这记录片吗?

aidj

digidigi 发表于 29-5-2014 11:53 PM
挤悦就是你担心malaysia要泡沫了，你担心bank收不到借贷人的钱要倒了，所以你去bank拿回你的deposit，这样 ...

每间bank个人250K。PIDM不担保衍生金融产品等。

看到目前新加坡各银行努力“吸引”对方银行 FD 资金，何况是大妈的。

aidj

wooyen 发表于 29-5-2014 11:52 PM
QE退场後,好像要慢慢从市场收回美金

好像是退场后的六个月后，预推算是明年四月。

wooyen

digidigi 发表于 29-5-2014 11:53 PM
挤悦就是你担心malaysia要泡沫了，你担心bank收不到借贷人的钱要倒了，所以你去bank拿回你的deposit，这样 ...

好像不是国行保证了
是PIDM

digidigi

wooyen 发表于 30-5-2014 12:02 AM
好像不是国行保证了
是PIDM

是哦？谢谢纠正，其实我也不清楚谁给担保，哈哈。

aidj

前程似锦 发表于 29-5-2014 11:14 PM
walau，够复杂。
没有金融相关背景，很难完全吸收。
只能半理解半tikam。

@前程似锦 你先去网上/书店找《货币战争5》从第一章读到第四章。

作者提醒我们留意关键字：利息掉期

aidj

hao1030 发表于 29-5-2014 10:03 PM
大大好有学问哦
我相信一升利息就会看到不多人半死了，骨牌效应后就更多了
大家要做好准 ...

不多人 是什么人6^^？

aidj

wooyen 发表于 30-5-2014 12:02 AM
好像不是国行保证了
是PIDM

假设PIDM也不太可能破产倒闭呢

wooyen

aidj 发表于 30-5-2014 12:22 AM
假设PIDM也不太可能破产倒闭呢

老实说PIDM的钱从何来?
天才曉得

aidj

两年前，大家投选2014年的网友

http://cforum.cari.com.my/forum.php?mod=misc&action=viewvote&tid=2900675&polloptionid=331433

aidj

前程似锦 发表于 29-5-2014 11:35 PM
QE系列带动低利息，高金融活动，扩张Mn。
而QE3 tapering 把这趋势硬生生斩下，来个刹车，
所以我把QE3 ...

https://www.google.com.my/?q=%E8 ... 88%98%E4%BA%895+pdf
@前程似锦
书读完，PM我。我就开始说个例子。