【EVERGRN 5101 交流专区】长青纤维板

origen

有阴险的东西隐藏吗？达利大兄有疑心。。
个人觉得如果相信管理层的诚信，这个时候会是开始建仓的时机。。

Friday, February 29, 2008



Not-So-Green

Evergreen has attracted positive coverage from analysts, who maintain "outperform" and "buy" calls with target prices ranging from RM2.80 to RM3.23. In 2007 , it reached a year-high of RM2.10 on May 23, 2007, against a low of RM1.14 on Feb 12, 2007. Now it trades at just RM1.32. What gives? Its supposed to double in 2-3 years time? Evergreen has just announced its results 4Q2007 ended 31/12/2007. For QE31/12/2007, Evergreen's net profit increased by 52.4% y-o-y from RM17.3 million to RM26.4 million on the back of a 24.0%-increase in turnover from RM137 million to RM170 million. However, when compared with the immediate preceding quarter, the net profit has dropped by 25.8% on the back of 16.1%-decline in turnover. The lower net profit was attributable to the increase in log prices as well as hike in glue prices and freight charges. No reason was given for the decline in turnover. It is possible that the drop in turnover is attributable to a fire in its Johor plant in mid-September that had partially damaged some production facilities.Evergreen's presence in diversified markets allows the company to spread its risks and avoid being exposed to a market downturn in countries like Japan or the US. Also, the company is poised to tap growth in many different countries.

For the nine-month period, Evergreen achieved a 36.4% gross margin, up 7.3 percentage points year on year, due to higher prices for medium density fibreboard. The fire, at one of Evergreen's production lines in Johor last September, affected 10% of its production. Its no secret so, the fire is an anomaly and should not affect investors' opinion.

For FY2007, Evergreen's net profit increased by 98.2% from RM59.8 million to RM118.5 million, while its turnover has increased by 38.5% from RM528 million to RM732 million. Its trading at less than 6x current year's earnings and only 4.5x next year's earnings. Something is not right. Evergreen is such an easy stock to love. Look at the margins and PER but there must be even bigger reasons why people are not buying, why institutional investors not biting? Its not for a lack of coverage also: DBS and Citigroup are among the long time promoters of the stock. What about issued shares, at 480m, its adequate enough to attract decent sized funds. The controlling shareholder holds 42.3% and LTH holds 7.0%. Free float is good. No issue there. Cost of glue and electricity could be rising as they are the main cost factors but with such sterling margins above 30%, that should not be an issue going forward. Medium density fibreboard prices has risen from an average of US$260 pcm to US$305 in 2007, and the trend is firm to flat this year. Maybe the weaker USD is creating some pressure on margins as 85% of revenue are priced in USD. Economic slowdown in US and Japan could be a negative for the company. Rising methanol, oil, freight costs and bunker fuel costs all add up. At current share price, the company is likely to pay 7.5 sen in dividend in FY08 and 9.0 sen in FY09, which translates into a very attractive dividend yield of 5.5% and 6.6% respectively. For yield players, that's excellent with strong upside for the stock price as well.

The only nagging thing is there shouldn't be such a mis-priced stock in our midst unless there is something sinister. Hence I wouldn't advocate jumping in at present levels as everything is too attractive. In horse racing when a 3 to one chance moves out to 10 to one, it usually doesn't win 99 out of 100 times. Evergreen is getting more attractive by the day, unfortunately, that does not make me feel good at all.
Posted by Salvatore_Dali at 12:12 AM 3 comments

Mr.Business

请问文章的link是？我想看看那3个comment讲什么。谢谢。

origen

在这里..http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

好网站。

[ 本帖最后由 origen 于 29-2-2008 10:29 AM 编辑 ]

origen

在这里，我也顺便让大家知道下锯木业目前的行情（有别于plywood，MDF。。）去年应该是谷底（价格和需求量来说），不过现在在需求量方面开始有一点订单回来（至少欧洲，美国还是非常非常衰弱），个人认为需求量方面今年中可能会回到较正常水平，不过价格要高升的话可能需要更多的时间。。不过也请大家留意世界经济的走向。。
圆木和树桐价钱没有太大的调整（即使在去年～我想将来也不会有）所以大家寻找木材股时，一定要注意该公司有没有本身的圆木和树桐来源。。
Evergreen 聯營方式在雪州開發一塊1萬2177英畝的森林保留地好像还没有正式批准。。

Mr.Business

长青

origen

达利大兄新看法，少了负面与不祥的的观点。。
[size=180%]
Update On Evergreen Fibreboard
[size=130%]Notcontent to leave my doubts alone over Evergreen's share price followingmy post, I have dug and searched and asked around for information.Managed to talk to a couple of people who are close to the company(analyst/ fund manager) and came away better informed. It seems thatthe sell down was part and parcel of the over-riding sell down ontimber related stocks, and many were apparently in single digit PER aswell. That could very well been from the housing slowdown in the US.

[size=130%]ForFY2007, Evergreen's net profit increased by 98.2% from RM59.8 millionto RM118.5 million, while its turnover has increased by 38.5% fromRM528 million to RM732 million. Its trading at less than 6x currentyear's earnings and only 4.5x next year's earnings.Medium density fibreboard prices has risen from an average of US$260pcm to US$305 in 2007, and the trend is firm to flat this year. Maybethe weaker USD is creating some pressure on margins as 85% of revenueare priced in USD. Economic slowdown in US and Japan could be anegative for the company. Rising methanol, oil, freight costs andbunker fuel costs all add up.  Atcurrent share price, the company is likely to pay 7.5 sen in dividendin FY08 and 9.0 sen in FY09, which translates into a very attractivedividend yield of 5.5% and 6.6% respectively.
[size=130%]WhileI am not keen to hold any kind of stocks in general, Evergreen could bean exception with those kind of yields. The owners apparently wanted tobuy more shares, which I would strongly object to using company sharebuybacks. The best solution I can give them is to announce loudly theprevious year's dividends and the projected dividend for 2008. Theyield figures would speak for themselves. 6% yield is nothing to sneezeat. Having found a better comfort level (nothing sinister within thecompany), Evergreen will be back in my buy list.. Instead of anoutright buy, its becoming a long term buy. Still a buy nonetheless,and there are not many making my list of late.
[size=130%]

Posted bySalvatore_Daliat9:53 PM0comments




Friday, February 29, 2008

Mr.Business

这算是坏消息吗？

General Announcement

Reference No CC-080305-20C4C

Company Name	:	EVERGREEN FIBREBOARD BERHAD
Stock Name	:	EVERGRN
Date Announced	:	05/03/2008

Type	:	Announcement
Subject	:	EVERGREEN FIBREBOARD BERHAD ("EFB" or "the Company") TERMINATION OF MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH SCHRADER UMWELTMANAGEMENT GMBH & CO KG ("Schrader GMBH")
Contents	:	Referto the announcement dated 7 December 2007 in relation to the Memorandumof Understanding ("MOU") between the Company and Schrader GMBH, wewould like to announce that the said MOU has been aborted as one of thecondition precedent is unable to be met. This announcement is dated 5 March 2008.

origen

我想有一些负面的影响，因为将来原料来源方面就会处于比较被动的局面，不过之前股价大落可能已经反映这事，无论如何，再观察一些日子。。。

scsiang82

Evergreen Fibreboard calls off deals
Published: 2008/03/05

EVERGREEN Fibreborad Bhd has called off its plan to buy a Schrader Umweltmanagement GMBH & Co KG (Schrader GMBH) subsidiary, Schrader Forest Management Sdn Bhd, whose business is forest management and nursery forest planning.

It also called off the deal to jointly harvest and develop 12,177 ac of the Bukit Tarek Forest Reserve in Selangor.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... 0305195324/Article/

Mr.Business

股价。。。

EVERGRN
(5101) 17:00:51
Last Done        1.300
Change        -0.030
Day High        1.330
Day Low        1.300
Best Buy        1.300
Best Sell        1.310
Volume(Lot)        1814

tan81

最近比较少留言了，潜水一阵子。
今天， 在东方日报看到关于这家公司的分析。马上被它的4倍本益比吸引了。
我一向来很排斥财经新闻的介绍或基金的介绍。
他们总是没有好公司可以介绍。
可是，长青的分析，还是吸引了我。来这里搜索，才知道那么多人热烈讨论了。
希望我还不迟。

又是一家业绩很好，可是股价不断下滑的公司。难怪许多人想起了手套。
可是，它的本益比和派息，不是手套可以比的。

看到许多人从基本面看，认为是一家好公司。而我，却半信半疑。
去年到今年，净利增加了66M，长期债务却增加了83M。短期债务还增加了68M.
大家对它的债务增长如此迅速，没有戒心吗？

如果债务增长，属于可以控制的范围，和作为增加盈利的杠杆，这是好债务。
可是看到长青的债务增长和盈利一样，根本没有杠杆的作用。
大家觉得我的分析对吗？

没有净现金的公司，很多时候，不属于好公司。

Mr.Business

其实我自己还是常常被低本益比的股票所吸引，可是我常告诫自己，不能单单被低本益比所吸引，市场给这么低的本益比自然有她的理由。

长青是不错的公司，不过如果用林森池选股的标准，她不是很符合标准。长青的产品是MDF，和plywood是互相可以取代的，这类替代品前景通常不好，因为可以被取代。另外公司也很受经济循环的影响。

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 7-4-2008 06:30 PM 发表
以下是林森池选“千里马”的标准，我国有哪些公司可以被他选为千里马呢？

“千里马”的标准

　　据林森池统计，从1977年至1997年，在香港33只指数成份股中，只有8只股价升幅超越恒生指数，因此除非投资少数的“千里马”，否则很难真正跑赢指数。巴菲特在60多年的投资生涯中持续超越指数，靠的就是投资在少数的“常胜军”身上。

　　林森池筛选中国“千里马”企业有七条标准：
1、中国经济现正处于由工业带动的起飞时刻，正如日本在20世纪六十至八十年代一样，高速经济增长营造大好营商环境；

2、要合乎拥有“市场经济专利”的要求，这些公司的服务或产品，必须是无可取代的；

3、市场对这些服务及产品的需求是重复性的，所以有增无减；

4、竞争无可避免，但不是陷入“割喉式”的过度竞争；

5、公司行业前景比较稳定，受经济循环的影响比较轻微；

6、公司纯利及营业额的增幅都要比经济增长快；

7、股东资金回报率不少于双位数字。

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 23-1-2008 09:21 AM 发表
我昨晚在思考Evergreen是不是可以投资的好公司，她的moat在哪里。

她的产品MDF是不可替代的吗？好象不是哦，MDF本来就是plywood的替代品，她的价钱应该是受plywood的价钱而影响。也就是说，MDF不是不可替代的产品，也没有多大pricing power。

现在全球最大MDF生产国是中国，可是生产的MDF都是供内需，一旦中国需求放缓，中国MDF与其他国家竞争，Evergreen能赢吗？Evergreen经得起考验吗？

我的结论：
1. MDF不是不可替代的产品，也没有多大pricing power；
2. Evergreen还没真正与中国厂家竞争过，胜算未知；
3. 还看不出Evergreen有在全球市场争霸的能力。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 8-4-2008 09:28 AM 编辑 ]

草下飞

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 8-4-2008 09:26 AM 发表
其实我自己还是常常被低本益比的股票所吸引，可是我常告诫自己，不能单单被低本益比所吸引，市场给这么低的本益比自然有她的理由。

长青是不错的公司，不过如果用林森池选股的标准，她不是很符合标准。长青的产品 ...

不好意思，我的看法和你有出入，我认为如果一间公司生产的东西要是属于垄断性的，那当然好。。。可是这种公司少而又少。。。我问你，全马有多少间银行？以前很多，现在慢慢减少。在以前，你不去大众银行，可以去别间银行，为什么现在大众那么成功？

管理层最重要。。。把每件小事做好就是好公司。。。把其他同行挤掉的是强公司。。。再说，MDF比plywood便宜，又环保。。。而且未来发展空间还是很大的。。。最近中东和越南对MDF的需求量增大不少。。。

你可能说以后搞不好会有比MDF更便宜的替代品，没错，可是好公司会求变，随着市场需求转变。。。可能以后也会进军更多领域。。。至少，我看得见evergreen的改良，有一种processed后的MDF，卖价比普通MDF更高。。。evergreen也有卖一些，属于初段研究。。。要是成功，以后赚幅更大

老散一名

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 16-2-2008 06:15 PM 发表
長青的图真是很惨一下。。。

其實我是不會看圖的啦，但我卻覺得這張圖很好看。
這個星期我都在究研長青的財報，可惜很多英文都看沒有，不能做評估。
但，如只是財報的數據，我已經是可以接受了。
雖然負債開始升高，雖然盈利成長跟不上生意成長，雖然生意成長又跟不上負債成長。
但，在新的財報中已有改善的訊號。

草下飞

原帖由 老散一名 于 8-4-2008 11:40 PM 发表

其實我是不會看圖的啦，但我卻覺得這張圖很好看。
這個星期我都在究研長青的財報，可惜很多英文都看沒有，不能做評估。
但，如只是財報的數據，我已經是可以接受了。
雖然負債開始升高，雖然盈利成長跟不上生意 ...

回复你和tan81，据我所知，并不是盈利成长跟不上负债的提升。因为最近evergreen在扩展。在泰国加了一条生产线，估计会对2008年尾的总生产提升到1.06 million m3 MDF/annum（现在大概为800，000m3), 就是32。5%的生产增加。未来一年MDF的价钱应该不会有太大的波幅（因为供应吃紧），所以如果revenue也起了32.5%，net profit可能就不只32.5%了。还有，因为公司也买了新的发电厂来供应厂里的能源需求。还有，因为glue resin的价格起了（制造MDF的原料），公司也买了制造glue resin的厂。这样又可以节省一笔钱，可见公司想要赚整个process flow。。。所以才会增加负债。。。这是可以接受的。。。

Mr.Business

原帖由 草下飞 于 8-4-2008 11:59 PM 发表
回复你和tan81，据我所知，并不是盈利成长跟不上负债的提升。因为最近evergreen在扩展。在泰国加了一条生产线，估计会对2008年尾的总生产提升到1.06 million m3 MDF/annum（现在大概为800，000m3), 就是32。5%的 ...

好。你有做功课。真诚希望你投资成功。

老散一名

原帖由 草下飞 于 8-4-2008 11:59 PM 发表


回复你和tan81，据我所知，并不是盈利成长跟不上负债的提升。因为最近evergreen在扩展。在泰国加了一条生产线，估计会对2008年尾的总生产提升到1.06 million m3 MDF/annum（现在大概为800，000m3), 就是32。5%的 ...

所以所以 net cash used in fanancing activities 幾年都紅紅，三年都紅那很難頂的咧，雖然今年也是紅的，但，盈利開始跟上來咧，還有其它喔，可以再看看。

Mr.Business

想不到你会对长青有兴趣？可以说说有兴趣的原因吗？

老散一名

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 9-4-2008 12:05 AM 发表


好。你有做功课。真诚希望你投资成功。

為什麼你贊它，不贊我老散。

Mr.Business

请来反驳我以下的看法。

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 23-1-2008 09:21 AM 发表
我昨晚在思考Evergreen是不是可以投资的好公司，她的moat在哪里。

她的产品MDF是不可替代的吗？好象不是哦，MDF本来就是plywood的替代品，她的价钱应该是受plywood的价钱而影响。也就是说，MDF不是不可替代的产品，也没有多大pricing power。

现在全球最大MDF生产国是中国，可是生产的MDF都是供内需，一旦中国需求放缓，中国MDF与其他国家竞争，Evergreen能赢吗？Evergreen经得起考验吗？

我的结论：
1. MDF不是不可替代的产品，也没有多大pricing power；
2. Evergreen还没真正与中国厂家竞争过，胜算未知；
3. 还看不出Evergreen有在全球市场争霸的能力。