MEGAN 怎麼回事?

sazayik

chinchai 于 15-3-2005 12:54 PM  说 :
Hi,  Kawan  megan 的股友.

          虽然网络是虚拟的地方,  但我比较喜欢在网络里说实话.

          对不起!!   我不是捣旦,  我真的是说真心话..........

          到今天 15/3/2005. 我没有买过一 ...

看来 MEGAN 真的是佳礼理财论坛的超级明星股，一旦有不好的评论，都恐会遭有心人乱剑射伤，连一向来快言快语的 UNCLE CHINCHAI 都得小心翼翼的发言。

我在想，难道投资一个股一定要大家的认同吗，不能有负面的评论吗？大家的投资手法都不一样，观点也不尽相同，所以一只股票有正反两方面的评论是不足为奇。没有可能去强迫其他人去认同一项观点，就如 UNCLE CHINCHAI 说的一句令我印象深刻的话：若要人似我，除非两个我。即无两个我，何不多听听来自各方面的评论，也许还能启发或补充本身观点的不足。

在股市中，正正未必得正，负负也未必是正，要想走得长远，正负才是正。因为小投资者都不是公司中有执行权力的大股东，无法全盘了解公司的想法和政策，所以必须多听多看，才来分析。

说回 MEGAN，对於公司回购本身的股票，我有乐观和悲观的看法。

乐观方面，因为这月尾 MEGAN 会公布它第三季财务报告，在准备报告的当儿，也许发现这季表现不错，在大市盘整之际，趁低回购以扶持股价。

悲观方面，既然公司有多余的现金，为何不尽早解决或减轻债务？最近马弊受美元下滑影响，兑换率节节下跌。MEGAN 债务组合中有马弊，美金和新元。下跌的兑换率(马弊对新元)，足以让 MEGAN 的债务进一步增加，可能会加剧其他投资者的悲观。

至於是乐观多过悲观，亦或是悲观当道，那是见人见智了。


P/S：KLSE。8K 和 UNCLE CHINCHAI 您是我所钦佩的两位前辈(不敢说欣赏，因为我年纪小过二位)。KLSE。8K 循循善诱，UNCLE CHINCHAI 言简意赅，虽投资手法不尽相同，却一样纵横股市数十年。两位的人生经历和经验，值得我们借镜。盼多与我们分享您们的故事。谢谢

haryewkun

OSK 也是强烈看好 MEGAN。当时的价格是 RM 1.37，他们认为可以在十二个月内达到 RM 2.00 。。。等于是 50% 的涨幅预估了。。。

OSK Research: Megan
http://www.lcmart.com/viewthread.php?tid=1192

今天买了 1。30 一点点，希望明天来得更低。

上当了！ 突然来个私底下配股10%，怪不得顶了那么多天，原来是有目的，，MEGAN真的很难搞，，SIAL，，

元显

Avenue Securities Sdn Bhd, on behalf of the Board of Directors of MMHB, wishes to announce that the Securities Commission had vide its letter dated 15 March 2005 (which was received on 16 March 2005) approved the Company's application for an extension of the deadline to implement the Private Placement for another six (6) months up to 28 September 2005.

This announcement is dated 16 March 2005.

invest2229

龙剑飞 于 16-3-2005 08:55 PM  说 :
上当了！ 突然来个私底下配股10%，怪不得顶了那么多天，原来是有目的，，MEGAN真的很难搞，，SIAL，，

那会影响什么？请解释。谢谢。

Harimau

呵... 配股是从去年谈到现在的了，不是什么新鲜事。配股的目的，就是减轻债务啰。

想不到这个冰箱股，这么久以来依然是佳礼的热门股...

nvdie

invest2229 于 17-3-2005 09:28  说 :


那会影响什么？请解释。谢谢。

原本 EPS 是盈利除于１００％ 的股票但现在却要除于１１０％的股票了。EPS 将会减少了些。。。。

hengcw

18 March, 2005
Page 1 of 2
RHB Highlights
Megan Media Holdings Berhad : Rising Production Cost To Offset The Benefit Of Firm ASP MARKET PERFORM
Megan Media Holdings Berhad (RM1.32)
Rising Production Cost To Offset The Benefit Of Firm ASP
Market prices of CD-Rs and DVD-Rs have stayed firm in the international market. But, the benefits will be offset by
rising production cost (i.e. the prices of polycarbonate resins).
We are keeping our MARKET PERFORM rating on Megan Media as its prevailing PER multiples reflect the earnings
risks associated with its highly geared-balance sheet and intense industry competition. Indicative fair value is pegged at
RM1.53/share, based on 5x FY04/06 PER.
Firm ASP in the past months. Average selling prices (ASP) for CD-Rs and DVD-Rs have been relatively firm since end-
2004. Currently, ASP for CD-Rs are hovering at US$0.20/unit, up from US$0.10 each at end-2004 while that of of DVD-R
is maintained at end-2004 level’s of US$0.60 per piece. This trend is expected to sustain into the coming months given that
leading optical disc manufacturers (like CMC Magnetic and Ritek) have indicated their intention to raise OEM prices for
2QCY05 by 10-15%. We believe that rising production cost and tight supply of polycarbonate resin have restricted the
manufacturers’ ability to reduce product prices.
(To recap, selling prices of CD-R and DVD-R were severely hit by the excess supply condition globally in 4QCY04. During
the quarter, the selling price of CD-R fell by 40% from US$0.17/unit at the beginning of year 2004 to US$0.10 each at end-
2004 while DVD-R prices fell by 30-40% to US$0.60/unit during the same period.)
Table 1 : Megan Media’s ASP
ASP (US$/unit) 1QCY04 4QCY04 Current
CD-R            0.17   0.10   0.20
DVD-R           1.00   0.60   0.60
Source : RHBRI estimates
But production cost is also on the rise. Prices of polycarbonate
resin, the main raw material used in the production of CD-Rs and
DVD-Rs, have risen by 70-80% from around US$1.80/kg at the
beginning of year 2004 to US$3.10/kg currently, in tandem with the
surge in crude oil prices. Additionally, there was also some
tightening in supply of polycarbonate resin since end-2004.
Hence, overall profit margins will remain low. Megan Media sources its polycarbonate resins from suppliers in
Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan. It has not encountered difficulties to source for polycarbonate resins but it is also not
spared from the margin squeeze due to high prices of polycarbonate resins. We are keeping our projected EBIT margin at
12-14% for FY04/05-07, below the historical range of 12-26% recorded since the company started its data storage business
in 1995.
MALAYSIA RHB RESEARCH
KDN PP 7767/9/2005 18 March, 2005 (Company No: 233327-M)
Chart 1 : US Crude Oil Price At 15-Year
Record High
18 March, 2005
Page 2 of 2
Maintain FY04/04-06 earnings forecasts and MARKET
PERFORM rating. No change in our FY04/05-07 net profit
forecasts. At current price, Megan Media’s prospective PERs of
5-6x may appear undemanding against 3-year average earnings
growth of 10.1% p.a. However, the low PER multiples reflect the
earnings risks associated with its highly geared-balance sheet (at
net gearing ratio of 1.3x as at end-Oct 04), aggressive capex
(RM160-200m annually) and Megan Media’s smallish capacity
size compared to its Taiwanese peers, Ritek and CMC, (which
are trading at forward PERs of 4-20x). Our indicative fair value
for Megan Media is pegged at RM1.53/share, based on 5x
FY04/06 PER.

wtk75

哇。。。。这么长的一篇文告。。。。看到头晕

公司在一时周转不灵的情况下，逼不得已，只好要求股东们同舟共济，挨挨义气,等渡过了当前的难关再说，董事善用这笔新的资金，这是大家都愿意见到的，配了一次，过了难关，财政稳定下来，舒一口气，便不用再配股了。
如果配股所筹的资金是用来发展业务，公司将来的盈利会增加，如果只是为了还债，公司只不过减低利息的负担，盈利不会有进展，倒不如把资金投资在别的展望更佳的公司，否则就只有继续受董事们的鱼肉！

vcycle

龙剑飞 于 16-3-2005 08:55 PM  说 :
上当了！ 突然来个私底下配股10%，怪不得顶了那么多天，原来是有目的，，MEGAN真的很难搞，，SIAL，，

不好意思，請問一下私下配的股是什麼價格呢，我沒有留意到。

[ Last edited by vcycle on 19-3-2005 at 11:12 PM ]

vcycle 于 19-3-2005 11:10 PM  说 :

不好意思，請問一下私下配的股是什麼價格呢，我沒有留意到。

[ Last edited by vcycle on 19-3-2005 at 11:12 PM ]

不太清楚，不过以目前的MEGAN股票趋势来看，应该不会高过1，30，大概是1，2X 左右吧！
P/S-相信老虎兄会比较清楚

vcycle

謝謝龍劍飛大哥。
    虎大哥收在甲萬的股，是否還有一些希望呢，收收再看下吧。
我上兩星期期第一次買進了一點，1.32。
希望他是在這裡築底。

糊涂

龙剑飞 于 19-3-2005 11:35 PM  说 :

不太清楚，不过以目前的MEGAN股票趋势来看，应该不会高过1，30，大概是1，2X 左右吧！
P/S-相信老虎兄会比较清楚

一般上私下配售股票的价格是 - 5个交易日平均价再折扣10%。
所以这对小股东并不是一件好事。

奥萨马宾拉丁

怪侠一枝梅 于 10-3-2005 02:01 PM  说 :
跌破RM1.30再进货。。。

今天已经跌破1.27了.

洪老大

再等多几天吧，就要出 quarterly report 了。由去年第四季度开始，DVD光碟的价钱已起了０。１美元, 但原料价也起了７０－８０％,  且看看Megan的成绩如何。

vcycle

shuhjiunho 于 11-3-2005 04:52 PM  说 :


呵呵。。。应该还会再跌。。。

嗚嗚~~~~~~沒聽 uncle 話，現在扭耳朵了，嗚嗚~~~~~~~

糊涂 于 20-3-2005 08:52 AM  说 :


一般上私下配售股票的价格是 - 5个交易日平均价再折扣10%。
所以这对小股东并不是一件好事。

所以，现在MEGAN管理层认为先有的股价并不适合私下配售股票，才延迟咯。
有个疑问，会不会抄高5天，然后即刻宣布私下配售股票？

shuhjiunho

vcycle 于 22-3-2005 12:17 AM  说 :

嗚嗚~~~~~~沒聽 uncle 話，現在扭耳朵了，嗚嗚~~~~~~~

Megan这种股，如果不想做到心中无股价的境界，那么就一定要学到与庄共舞。在股价偏低的时候发出Private Placement有利为那些Private Placement的“股东”。在股价偏低的时候，这些“股东”能够买到“最”便宜的股。

如果短期没有再发出Private Placement的话，股价短期就会上升，所以这些“股东”能够乘机套利赚钱。别忘记，最新的业绩成绩又要除了，那么这些股东肯定“大炒”一番。呵呵！

要投资Megan，一定要学习“心中无股价”，没有日子很难过！呵呵！