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发表于 24-10-2008 01:19 AM
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谢谢
Mr.Business 版主和过路客网友
的分析和讲解 |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-10-2008 02:03 AM
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发表于 24-10-2008 06:36 AM
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原帖由 过路客 于 24-10-2008 02:03 AM 发表 ![](http://cforum4.cari.com.my/images/common/back.gif)
谢幕了吗?做么酱讲的,电台访问完毕了吗? 哈哈。
过路客只是听了专家们的话,重组过后,再随便乱讲而已。(符合这个帖的主题,多阅读其他专家们的话。)
多阅读其他专家的话,会得到更 ...
过路客友:
哈。。。。
这是以礼待人
转贴----
纽约汇市〕美元升至两年新高後回落,因巴西央行大举抛售美元 2008年 10月 24日 星期五 05:
*美元指数升至两年高位後回落
*欧元兑美元跌至两年低点後反弹
*巴西央行抛售美元
路透纽约10月23日电---美元周四下跌,盘中美元指数和美元兑欧元攀升至两年新高,此前巴西央行大举抛售美元,帮助稳定新兴市场汇率,分析师称.
新兴市场货币近几周遭受全球金融危机重创,因美国为基地的投资人出脱在这些市场的资产,汇回资金.
分析师对平稳市场是否能持续表示怀疑,因投资人担心全球经济大幅下滑,企业盈利前景低迷,但周四,投资人对储备货币的信心有所松懈.
"巴西央行出手干预,买入巴西货币,抛售美元,看来起到了稳定走势的作用,不仅是在G10,而且对全球汇市也有影响."RBS Global Banking & Markets汇市策略主管Dustin Reid表示.
"许多这些货币走势出现大幅扭转,巴西央行的行动有扭转形势的效果,但我认为在未来几周或几个月,厌恶风险情绪还将主导市况."
巴西央行两度在现汇市场干预,抛售美元,并表示准备抛售高至500亿美元的美元互换合约.
欧元兑美元<EUR=>升0.5%,报1.2914美元,盘中高见1.2938美元,根据电子交易平台EBS.稍早欧元曾挫至1.2726美元的两年低点.
美元指数.DXY高见86.120,根据路透数据,为2006年末来首见,尾盘跌0.3%,报85.157. 待续
纽约汇市〕美元升至两年新高後回落,因巴西央行大举抛售美元
2008年 10月 24日 星期五 05:27 BJT
**新兴市场货币反弹**
美元兑巴西货币BRBY重挫5.2%,报2.25350,其他上扬的货币包括南非兰特<ZAR=D3>兑美元劲扬5.7%,报10.9500.
美元兑土耳其里拉<TRY=>跌0.2%,报1.69里拉.
新兴市场的困境加剧了投资人对全球经济前景的忧虑,匈牙利和阿根廷等国都采取迫不得已的措施提振受困的经济.这些情势扶助美元在最近几周获得避险买盘.
欧元兑日圆<EURJPY=>升0.3%,报125.80日圆,稍早触及六年低点123.15日圆,根据路透数据.
美元兑日圆<JPY=>跌0.5%,报97.400日圆,根据EBS,稍早挫至七个月低点95.94日圆.
本周美元和日圆兑较高息货币大涨,因风险需求萎缩.蒸发的流动性导致大多数市场的急剧波动.分析师称汇市仍很有可能剧烈波动.
"现状是,投资者仍十分恐慌,他们处于一种稍有动静就会剧烈反应的心态.市场仍受厌恶风险情绪主导,受股市的走势影响也很大."GFT Forex汇市研究部门董事Boris Schlossberg表示.
日圆兑欧元,澳元和新西兰元等高息货币大涨,因投资人出脱利差交易.
英镑兑美元<GBP=>跌0.4%,报1.6229美元,稍早挫至五年低点约1.6046美元,因投资人担心该国仍易受金融危机冲击.
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楼主 |
发表于 24-10-2008 11:36 AM
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回复 283# liyen1708 的帖子
如今货币的形势不稳定,抓美元相当风险的。
昨天才看报纸,某银行预测可以达到 RM3.642 兑换 $1.00。
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/17453
先不要预测美元走势,但是,投资者往美元、日圆去,不是避风港,就是利差交易(carry trade)。
也许,未来三个月,美元还是会持续上升,也许不会。完全在于投资者的看法。
本地银行完全是以马币的角度去看待。
但是,身为一个负责任的银行,不应该拿客户的钱来作赌注,这个根本是高风险投资。
万一引发美元抛售情况,问题就来了。
之前说过,如果按照本地分析家的看法投资货币,已经大亏几次。
希望这些分析家们说这些话的时候,有自己的根据。 |
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发表于 24-10-2008 11:39 AM
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回复 284# 过路客 的帖子
如果手上有美元的网友,先不要换回来。我手上有一点。。。![](static/image/smiley/default/titter.gif) |
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发表于 24-10-2008 11:41 AM
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发表于 24-10-2008 11:42 AM
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我也有一点,最死是澳元也有。
看着它跌倒 2.60-2.70 时,打算对冲一下,兑换了一点。
现在跌到新元水准。真的跌到母亲都生疏了。 |
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发表于 24-10-2008 11:46 AM
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回复 287# 过路客 的帖子
对外汇没研究,不过澳元应该还有减息的空间,可能还会跌 (报纸写的)。美元相对而言比澳元安全。讲到这里就想到之前银行很热烈推出外元存款例,我想大部分存户现在应该是亏汇率了吧。 |
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发表于 24-10-2008 11:54 AM
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过路客友:
(这只是我个人看法而已,不一定是对或正确 )
各国都对这次的美国救市能力,存了怀疑
到底是真的救市为名,还是救自已,把一直以来的问题没解决,推向国际,
由国际,来帮帮忙,处理这烂摊子。。。
而现在巴西,敢敢走出这一步,救了自已
下来,也会多国来跟风的抛售
其时,印度,也在早前,做试探的抛售债券。。。
在紧急关头里
多国,都会护盘自已国家的货币
美国,这次的债务,只能算是,救的一时,后遗症,就不易解决的事。。
再加上,美国的黄金储存,比多国更多,
对多国,长远来看,不是好事。。
美国的美元货币,一直在危机而升,算不算是特别的人为呢???
就只有美国,本身才清楚。。
美元贬值,会有这样的可能
国债这样大,一定要平衡回去
只有美元多数量流通在市场
也会是对持美金的国家不利。。
到时,更伤痕累累的。。。
或许,现在的各国
都想,不要以美金为重要角色。。。
[ 本帖最后由 liyen1708 于 24-10-2008 11:58 AM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 24-10-2008 11:56 AM
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没办法,就算是知道不利,但仍要用外币进货,一来一往 conversion loss 很高。所以一定要留点外币,作自己的“外汇储备”。哈哈。
兑换了一点,减少了一点损失。剩下一些,留着用来买货咯。
一喜、一忧,美元涨,也赚了一点。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-10-2008 12:03 PM
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原帖由 liyen1708 于 24-10-2008 11:54 AM 发表 ![](http://cforum1.cari.com.my/images/common/back.gif)
过路客友:
(这只是我个人看法而已,不一定是对或正确 )
各国都对这次的美国救市能力,存了怀疑
到底是真的救市为名,还是救自已,把一直以来的问题没解决,推向国际,
由国际,来帮帮忙,处理 ...
如果其他国家的金融机制没有问题,美元早已经剩半条命了。
货币是个比较奇怪的机制,它不像股市,整体价值会下跌。
如果市场都是抛售货币,十一个人抛售欧元,九个人抛售美元,美元对欧元还是上升。美元被抛售,兑换欧元还是上涨,有点不太逻辑,是吗?这就是货币制度。
但是,这种货币救市增量的情形持续,长期来说,等于通膨。
如今我们看到的问题,其实通缩。所以股市、能源、黄金等,都下跌。
物品通膨,投资货币通缩。不会乱吧?如果有空,会随便写一写这个东西。 |
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:13 PM
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原帖由 过路客 于 24-10-2008 12:03 PM 发表 ![](http://cforum3.cari.com.my/images/common/back.gif)
如果其他国家的金融机制没有问题,美元早已经剩半条命了。
货币是个比较奇怪的机制,它不像股市,整体价值会下跌。
如果市场都是抛售货币,十一个人抛售欧元,九个人抛售美元,美元对欧元还是上升。美元被 ...
这也是我个人想法而已
为何在金融危机的时后
美金,一直扶持而上
反而其他商品都背下跌很多
这是不合常理
而这次的,多国的投资者,都很茫然的
唯有看,只要在市场,升值的,都会去跟风
这风吹来的,是美元占上风
而,投资者,有没有想过
当有一天,美元被抛售的话
也是投资者,多一次的危机
美国的国债,也以兆来算了
这笔美丽的帐,也会有一天
去填写下去
到时走的下下策,就是
美元数量,多到吓人。。。
东西一多,价值就没这样好了。。。 |
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:16 PM
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:17 PM
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回复 289# liyen1708 的帖子
巴西卖出美元,买入巴西货币,是为了稳定本国的汇率。意思就是说外资在快速卖出巴西资产,换成美元,因此巴西货币汇率大跌 (The real has sunk 31 percent from a nine-year high of 1.5545 reached on Aug. 1 )。汇率大跌会导致外债膨胀,公司破产,后果不堪设想。所以巴西在设法救自己。
巴西现在根本不是在考虑是不是要继续持有美元,其实对她来说,越多美元对她越好。。。
Brazil to Pump $50 Billion in Currency Market to Shore Up Real
By Andre Soliani and Jamie McGee
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank will pump the equivalent of $50 billion into currency markets, its boldest move yet to stem a two-month, 28 percent tumble in the real that has saddled companies with losses and stoked inflation.
The real soared after the announcement, climbing 5.2 percent and erasing an initial slump of as much as 5.8 percent. Authorities said the injection will be in the form of contracts that will allow investors to protect against further declines in the Brazilian currency.
Today's plan responds to concerns that the real's tumble will bankrupt companies in Latin America's biggest economy after some of the biggest exporters reported more than 5 billion reais ($2.22 billion) in derivatives losses. Those worries stem in part from the collapse in Mexico of retailer Controladora Comercial Mexicana SAB this month following a rout in the peso.
Brazil has ``been aggressive, ahead of the curve compared to other central banks,'' said Gerardo Margolis, a vice president for emerging markets at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. He said the $50 billion swap sale plan will help shore up the real for at least a few days. ``It's a huge number.''
Policy makers injected the equivalent of $22.9 billion into the foreign exchange market from Oct. 8 to Oct. 20 in the form of swap sales, dollar loans and outright dollar sales, central bank President Henrique Meirelles told a congressional committee in Brasilia on Oct. 21.
Brazilian companies may lose as much as $10 billion from currency derivatives after the real's tumble, Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA economist Tomas Malaga said today.
The Brazilian real's losses had quickened this week. It sank 11 percent the past two days amid concern that the global financial crisis will drive neighboring Argentina to default for the second time this decade.
`Forceful Approach'
The central bank followed up today's announcement by selling $2.3 billion worth of swap contracts and buying an unspecified amount of reais. The bank said in a statement it will hold further swap auctions to meet ``liquidity needs'' in the market. The swap contracts support the real by providing investors a hedge against its decline.
``The central bank is taking a forceful approach,'' said Vladimir Caramaschi, chief strategist at Credit Agricole do Brasil. The swap offer ``is another exit for those who need to cancel hedging positions.''
The real rose as much as 6.2 percent to 2.24 per dollar today. It traded at 2.2608 at 4:29 p.m. New York time, from 2.379 yesterday. The real plunged early in the day, falling to as low as 2.526 per dollar after Standard & Poor's said it may cut Russia's debt rating.
Commodities Slump
``You have Argentina, the Russia downgrade,'' said Flavia Cattan-Naslausky, an interest-rate and currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Greenwich, Connecticut. She said she expects Brazil to pull out of the crisis because the country has ``deep'' money markets and growing investment.
The real has sunk 31 percent from a nine-year high of 1.5545 reached on Aug. 1 as the global crisis has driven down prices on the country's commodity exports and eroded demand for higher- yielding, emerging-market assets. Only the South African rand, down 35 percent, has fallen more over that time.
Brazilian prices, as measured by the IGP-10 index of wholesale, consumer and construction costs, rose 0.78 percent in the month ended Oct. 10 after declining 0.42 the previous month.
Brazil had foreign currency outflows of $3.39 billion between Oct. 1 and Oct. 21, central bank economist Altamir Lopes told reporters today in Brasilia. In September, before the global crisis deepened, the country received $2.8 billion in inflows from trade and investments.
Tax Scrapped
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, seeking to reverse those outflows, eliminated today a financial tax on foreign investors' purchases of fixed-income securities and loans. Lula scrapped the tax, known as IOF, of 1.5 percent on foreign investors' purchases of some financial products and of 0.38 percent on foreign-currency loans, according to the Finance Ministry.
``This makes a lot of sense,'' Cattan-Naslausky said. ``No one likes capital controls.''
Brazil is ramping up interventions to prop up the real after building up a record $208.7 billion of reserves during a six-year commodities rally. The UBS Bloomberg CMCI Commodity Index has fallen 43 percent since peaking on July 2.
While the real's drop has bolstered the government's finances because it holds more foreign currency than it owes, some companies have been squeezed.
Companies ranging from pulp maker Aracruz Celulose SA to food processor Sadia SA and cement maker Grupo Votorantim announced currency losses of more than 5 billion reais ($2.19 billion) from hedges and bets that the real would extend a four- year rally.
`Stress'
The Itau forecast for as much as $10 billion in companies' currency losses represents a 23 percent loss on about $44 billion at risk in currency derivatives among Brazil companies, said Malaga, chief economist for the second-largest non-government bank. Former central bank deputy governor Paulo Vieira da Cunha last week said potential losses on the contracts may be a combined $27 billion.
``Nobody would imagine the currency could reach such a level,'' Malaga said in a phone interview. ``This problem will still cause stress for some individual companies, but we are not talking about the risk of a systemic crisis.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne ... j2sI&refer=news
Despite Billions to Prop Dollar Brazil Real Drops over 30%
Written by Newsroom
Thursday, 23 October 2008
US dollar Brazil was forced to appeal to 22.9 billion US dollars in the past month, including sales of foreign reserves, derivatives and loans to prop the weakened Real punished by investors fleeing from emerging markets to more secure assets.
More over sales of reserves to buy the Brazilian currency in the spot market totaled 3.2 billion US dollars from October 8 to October 20, Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles said in testimony before congress. The other types of intervention, including loans and currency swaps, don't affect the level of reserves.
"Even smaller economies, like Mexico, have spent more than us," Meirelles said in Brasilia. Mexico's central bank bought 6.4 billion worth of pesos on October 10 alone to shore up the currency.
The Real has lost a third of its value against the US dollar since reaching a nine-year high August first, causing some of the biggest companies to report more than 5 billion reais (2.2 billion USD) of losses from bad currency bets. The Bovespa stock market index has fallen 32% in the period.
So far this month the Brazilian currency has dropped 20%, the third-worst performer among the 16 most-actively traded currencies, trailing only the South African rand and Mexican peso.
In a decree published Wednesday, October 22, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva authorized the Central Bank to engage in currency swap transactions with foreign central banks. Brazil's international reserves stood before the crisis at US$ 200 billion.
In addition to foreign-exchange interventions, the Brazilian central bank has taken measures to inject more than US$ 71 billion in the banking system to ease a credit crunch that's hurting small and medium-size lenders.
Meirelles told Congress that bank lending fell 13% in the first eight business days of October from the same period the previous month.
However Latin America's largest economy is "performing well" amid the "severe" global credit crisis, Meirelles said. The government's debt as percentage of GDP has fallen because the country is a net dollar creditor, he said. Capital levels at Brazilian banks exceed the minimum amount required under the Basel guidelines, he added.
Meantime, Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega also addressing congress said that economic growth in 2009 should slow to between 4 and 4.5% from an estimated 5% this year.
"Brazil's economy is more dynamic and has several comparative advantages over advanced economies," Mantega said. "The sole fact that only 13% of our GDP comes from exports is an advantage, we depend more on domestic demand than foreign markets, so we'll be less affected than China in case there's a reduction in global trade."
http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/10075/1/
Brazil's Central Bank Could Borrow Fed Funds -Paper
Thu, Oct 23 2008, 12:02 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Brazil's Central Bank Could Borrow Fed Funds -Paper
SAO PAULO -(Dow Jones)- The Brazilian Central Bank is negotiating possible loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve with the intention of using the money to help stabilize the local foreign exchange market, local newspaper Folha de S. Paulo reported Thursday.
The newspaper did not reveal its sources.
Contacted by Dow Jones Newswires, central bank officials were not immediately available for comment.
According to the newspaper, the intention of the central bank is to use loan dollars provided by the Fed in order to inject dollars into the local forex market, and thereby preserve Brazil's foreign currency reserves.
Brazil's foreign currency reserves totaled $201.5 billion as of Oct. 21. So far in October, the country's reserves have dropped by $5 billion after the central bank sold dollars to the market through a series of auctions.
A government order announced Wednesday allows the central bank to participate in currency swap operations with central banks of other countries to ease recent foreign currency liquidity restrictions.
Wednesday, Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles said the government had no immediate plans to use the measure, but would add it to its arsenal of options to deal with recent tight credit conditions. "This is a preventative measure," he said. "There's no necessity to use it at the moment but it could be useful if there's a need or convenience."
In late September, the U.S. Federal Reserve established swap lines with the central banks of several countries, including Australia, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Those came in addition to already existent lines with the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada.
The authorization for central bank swap operations is the latest in a series of measures by Brazil's government to furnish liquidity to tight local credit markets.
Since a worsening of the global financial crisis in September, the central bank has injected $22.9 billion directly into local markets to provide liquidity through direct dollar sale auctions, sales of foreign exchange swaps and sales of foreign currency credits to local banks.
The bank has also cut reserve requirements on time and sight deposits to free up more than 80 billion Brazilian reals ($33.89 billion) in funds to the local financial system.
-By Rogerio Jelmayer, Dow Jones Newswires; 5511-2847-4521; [email protected]
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=oxUE9cWkb7%2Br3Ccb87Xjhw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
http://news.google.com.my/news?h ... mp;btnG=Search+News |
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:23 PM
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原帖由 Mr.Business 于 24-10-2008 12:17 PM 发表 ![](http://cforum4.cari.com.my/images/common/back.gif)
巴西卖出美元,买入巴西货币,是为了稳定本国的汇率。意思就是说外资在快速卖出巴西资产,换成美元,因此巴西货币汇率大跌 (The real has sunk 31 percent from a nine-year high of 1.5545 reached on Aug. 1 )。汇率 ...
你好
谢谢你的资料
也许,这个问题真的是深入蒂固了
大家都会深信
持有美元,是最安全的事
(用在我不是修金融科的局外人看事 )
现在美国,问题
会一棒接一棒而来
接受美元是安全货币是好的
只是美国的坏问题,存在的太多
如果,我讲如果而已
有一天
这些问题,一起迎面而来的话
让人措手不及
美元就会出事了,
美元
就会变了,不是想像最好的避风港了
[ 本帖最后由 liyen1708 于 24-10-2008 12:30 PM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:28 PM
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原帖由 liyen1708 于 24-10-2008 12:13 PM 发表 ![](http://cforum1.cari.com.my/images/common/back.gif)
这也是我个人想法而已
为何在金融危机的时后
美金,一直扶持而上
反而其他商品都背下跌很多
这是不合常理
其实是很合理的。大量资金 (银行,对冲基金,投资资金,保险公司)在卖出世界各地的资产,然后换回美元,所以美元汇率起咯。为什么她们要卖呢?deleveraging,应付客户的redeem, 要筹钱,知道不卖会跌得更惨, margin call。。。等等理由。
至于商品下跌,很多人说是因为经济衰退。需求减少,导致价钱下跌。我个人认为最主要的原因是抄作资金在卖出这些商品,没人抄了,不就是下跌咯。。。 |
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:36 PM
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回复 295# liyen1708 的帖子
我的看法并不是要证明美元是安全货币什么的,我要告诉你的是现在全球市场缺水,所以资金在卖出各个国家的资产,换回美元。为什么要换成美元呢?几个原因:
1. 那些资金原本就是从美国来的,现在要回去美国,自然要换成美元;
2. 有些资金之前是借钱来抄作的,她们借的是美元贷款,所以现在要用美元还债;
3. 美元之前已经贬值得很厉害,再贬值的可能性低,相反现在各国经济开始在恶化,货币有贬值的空间。相对来说美元比较安全。
我小小投资者可以看出,那些精明的抄作基金自然也会看出,会不会乘机选基本面不好的国家攻击获利呢?这是很可能的事,毕竟相似的事已经发生过很多次。。。 |
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:37 PM
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:40 PM
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发表于 24-10-2008 12:45 PM
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回复 298# liyen1708 的帖子
你说的只是side effect吧了。如果我是韩国人,我也希望手上的钱都是美元,不是韩元。可是这些side effect只是助兴,不是主力,我以上所说的才是主力 (我认为啦)。因此我说手上有美元的网友,先不要换回来。
我国的特点是一向不是国际热钱的主要目的地,热钱进来的少,出去时应该也还好,可是经济放缓应该不能避免的了。。。
South Korean President Lee warns against foreign currency speculation
20:14, October 08, 2008
South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak on Wednesday accused unnamed corporations and investors that are trying to earn easy money from speculating in the foreign currency market amid global financial turmoil.
"Dollar hoarding appears to be rampant amid the scarcity of the U.S. currency," Lee said.
"Some businesses and individuals seem to think they can get rich quickly by hoarding dollars amid the won's crash in value. But individual greed should be put aside in times of national crisis," said the president.
Lee urged potential currency speculators to stop their inappropriate action, stressing that the nation has enough foreign currency reserves to prevent foreign exchange crisis.
The president said South Korea has nothing to fear, as all of its foreign currency holdings can be instantly cashed and are more than enough to cover its maturing short-term foreign debts.
Moreover, he added that the nation is expected to post export surpluses in the last quarter of this year.
Lee's remarks came as the local currency closed at a near 10-year low of 1,395 against the U.S. dollar amid growing concerns about Seoul's limited foreign currency reserve.
Source: Xinhua
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90851/6511780.html
[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 24-10-2008 12:50 PM 编辑 ] |
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