【MASTEEL 5098 交流专区】大马钢厂

相对论

从下个 Quarter Report 开始, EPS & Price 将会慢慢的下, 还有货的保重

publicpang

2门变7钱.......

相对论

以它的运坐模式是好股来的, 可惜的是不是时候买进, 里面的庄也是够厉害的

jimmylye

还是等916过了才下场咯。。。最近吵到这样厉害。

马桶盖

经济复苏，钢铁需求上涨。。很多钢铁股都有开贴，为什么MASTEEL没有？？ 各位有什么意见？？

马桶盖

Malaysia Steel Works (KL) (Masteel) reported a strong turnaround in
3QFYDec2009, returning to profitability after two consecutive quarters of
losses.
Turnover was still some 25.9% lower y-y at RM195.7 million, due to higher
volume sales and selling prices in the previous corresponding quarter. Recall
that steel prices were near record high levels early 3Q08, just before the
onset of the global credit crisis.
However, turnover was 15% higher q-q as demand and prices gradually
recovered from the lows in 4Q08-1Q09. This was the second straight quarter
of higher turnover for Masteel.
Volume demand was boosted by inventory restocking as fears of the worst
receded and user companies resumed purchases on expectations of better
operating conditions ahead. Utilisation rates at its billet plant and rolling mill
improved to about 65% and 75%, respectively, from as low as 40-50% in the
earlier part of this year.
Steel prices also strengthened. We estimate selling prices for steel bars
averaged at about RM2,000-RM2,100 per tonne in 3Q09, rebounding
strongly from the low of about RM1,750 per tonne in April 2009 and average
of about RM1,900 per tonne in 2Q09.
Masteel’s operating margins improved on the back of both higher plant
utilisation and selling prices.
Net profit stood at RM13.4 million in 3Q09, down some 20.2% y-y but sharply
improved from the previous three quarters. The company’s net profit slipped
a high of RM37.9 million in 2Q08 to net loss of RM30.4 million and RM2
million in 1Q-2Q09, respectively. Profits in 3Q09 pared net loss for the yearto-
date to about RM19.1 million.

马桶盖

We expect operating conditions for the domestic steel sector will continue to
improve going forward.
Demand for steel bars is expected to increase into 2010 with the rollout of
projects under the government’s pump priming activities. However, the pace
of growth may be very gradual.
For starters, there is still ample surplus production capacity industry-wide
following the sharp contraction over the past year. Also, whilst public
construction activities are expected to pick up, the property sector will
probably remain relatively lackluster. The government’s latest proposal to
implement a 5% real property gains tax and higher mortgage rates are
expected to dampen demand.
Steel prices too have been more or less range-bound for the past few
months. In the global market, prices hit the peak in August 2009 before
giving back some gains with underlying real demand still relatively weak.
The short upturn in prices highlights the prevailing problem of huge excess
capacity in the steel industry – rising prices had encouraged steelmakers to
raise production, too much too soon.
There are concerns that underlying real demand will stay weak and the
rebound seen in 2Q-3Q09 was spurred by inventory replenishing and
government stimulus policy.
For instance, the US government’s cash-for-clunkers rebate programme
gave car sales a huge boost in 3Q09. But sales have fallen off once the
programme ended. Similarly, the US property sector is being propped up by
tax credit for first time homebuyers. The tax break, to a certain degree, have
“borrowed” from future demand. Sales may drop again once the rebate
programme expires, in April 2010.
China’s massive stimulus spending has helped stave off an even bigger drop
in global steel production this year. The country’s steel production is forecast
to grow a strong 19% in 2009, partially offsetting double-digit declines in the
US and Europe. But demand may weaken in 2010 amid government plans to
clamp down on industry overcapacity and waning stimulus policies.
Indeed, pressures of over-production have already seen Chinese steel prices
fall by as much as 25%, on average, from the peak in early-August 2009.
China accounts for just under half of the world’s total steel consumption.
Hence, weakness in the domestic Chinese market – and resulting rise in
steel exports – will have significant impact on the global steel industry.
At this point, the outlook for steel is still somewhat hazy although prices have
rebounded in recent weeks and most market observers expect prices to stay
firm next year. On the other hand, few are overly bullish pending further
clarity on the pace of the global economic recovery.

马桶盖

Recent news reports suggest miners are looking to raise iron ore prices for
2010-2011 supply contracts after the 33% cut this year. Spot iron ore prices
are back above US$100 per tonne currently, up from as low as US$60 per
tonne in March 2009. Still, much depends on how upcoming economic data
and demand pans out in the coming months.
On balance, we expect Masteel will enjoy better volume demand in 2010 but
prices could remain range bound. Liberalization of the domestic steel sector
will keep prices in line with global prices. We estimate steel bar prices will
hover between RM1,900 and RM2,100 per tonne.
As mentioned, domestic demand for steel will be boosted by government
pump priming projects but sales growth to the private sector, including
property developers, are likely to be modest. Meanwhile, export markets are
expected to be very competitive, especially if the glut in China persists.
On the positive note, Masteel recently secured a steel bars off-take
agreement with Australia’s Stemcor Australia worth RM120 million over the
next two years. The company has also started exporting to New Zealand. Its
products have received Certification of Product Compliance from the
Australian Certification Authority for Reinforcing Steels (ACRS), an
accreditation accepted in both countries. Exports currently account for more
than one-third of Masteel’s sales.
We estimate the company’s sales and earnings will remain fairly firm in
4Q09, although net profit could be lower due to weaker selling prices, but are
likely insufficient to completely overturn losses suffered in 1H09. Net loss is
estimated at RM8.2 million for 2009.
Masteel is expected to return to profitability in 2010. We forecast net profit at
RM44.8 million or 23 sen per share. Thus, its shares are trading at an
attractive 4.3 times 2010 earnings.

步惊云大侠

经济复苏，钢铁需求上涨。。很多钢铁股都有开贴，为什么MASTEEL没有？？ 各位有什么意见？？
马桶盖 发表于 14-1-2010 04:24 PM

    because it is useless, 哈哈

马桶盖

why are you saying it is useless...please elaborate.

ecoung

回复 2# 马桶盖

Masteel相对其他钢铁股规模较小，所以比较不引人注意...

gyeserlim

等复苏了才来讨论，，，，会不会 慢了点。。。

95023

有留意过它一下，但看到它的profit margin很底下，我就没再留意料
我不懂同行的是否１样。。。。

prince

MASTEEL=masuk akan 死掉，所以没人敢买！
现在hot kinsteel，赶快进场吧！
输钱别怪我，因为你赢钱也没分给我！

tk123

输钱别怪我，因为你赢钱也没分 ...
prince 发表于 15-1-2010 09:18 AM [/quote]

哈哈哈，这一句好过--买卖自负。

马桶盖

有留意过它一下，但看到它的profit margin很底下，我就没再留意料
我不懂同行的是否１样。。。。
95023 发表于 15-1-2010 08:37 AM

MASTEEL

Year end Dec (RM mil)	2007	2008	2009E	2010E
Turnover	548	881.2	705	810.7
Operating profit	75.7	114.6	21.1	85.1
Depreciation	13.3	15.1	16.2	16.9
Interest inc/(exp)	-16.7	-13.8	-13.1	-12.2
Pre-tax profit	45.7	85.7	-8.2	56
Net profit	45.7	79.3	-8.2	44.8
EBITDA margin (%)	13.8	13	3	10.5
Pre-tax margin (%)	8.3	9.7	-1.2	6.9
Net margin (%)	8.3	9	-1.2	5.5

哦。。很低下,但是比起KINSTEEL 又比较好沃

                               FY2008 FY2007 FY2006

Earnings per share (sen)	3.5	14.8	295.6
Net asset value per share (RM)	0.86	0.87	3.84
Gross profit margin	4.20%	14.40%	39.70%
Net profit margin	1.30%	6.10%	31.70%
Return on equity	1.80%	8.80%	30.40%
Return on asset	0.80%	3.80%	11.50%
Current ratio	0.9	0.8	0.6
Gearing	4.1	3.1	2.8

马桶盖

可是如果看回FY2006 & FY2005, margin 是超过30%的。。现在margin低是因为钢铁价格还算低吧。。

95023

价钱是否底我就不太清楚啦，
我不懂这行业。。。
在9月份的季报中：
EBITDA margin还10％不到
我个人认为做酱的生意都很辛苦下
但它的NTA有RM2.00
EPS也由上1季负数转到RM0.0686
cash flow也比上1季好。。。

我觉得是有复苏的现象，
但我不想冒这个险，
因为我的投资经验还很浅，怕输

prince

现在钢铁股真的是苟延残喘，但也是因为profit低，以后被炒的机会才会比较大，当然前提是他不会那么快倒！

草下飞

有一点不是很正常，为什么receivables一直增加，payables却一直减少。。。如果说几经不景气，两者应该是平行的吧。。。人家拖欠你钱，你也拖欠别人钱，经济好，你好来，我好去。。。  5-YR BALANCE SHEET

*All figures in RM'000 *Re-statement Excluded Reclassified & normalised data for comparative use. BALANCE SHEET @ 2008-12-31 @ 2007-12-31 @ 2006-12-31 @ 2005-12-31 @ 2004-12-31 CURRENT ASSETS Cash & Securities 28,514 34,496 38,004 26,967 9,665 Stocks 163,662 114,996 78,926 55,048 38,737 Debtors/Receivables 134,482 110,636 84,565 58,097 53,919 Others 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 326,658 260,128 201,495 140,112 102,321 CURRENT LIABILITIES Short-term Loans 127,577 120,859 167,720 14,419 11,982 Creditors / Payables 50,295 60,065 45,103 102,215 115,979 Taxation 2,288 1,745 0 0 0 Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 Others 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 180,160 182,669 212,823 116,634 127,961 NET CURRENT ASSETS 146,498 77,459 -11,328 23,478 -25,640 LONG-TERM ASSETS Land & Building 85,457 86,423 86,814 83,046 52,588 Plant & Mechinery 313,406 290,726 274,558 233,965 220,364 Investments 9,000 9,000 5,000 5,056 0 Intangible Assets 0 0 0 0 0 LONG-TERM ASSETS 407,863 386,149 366,372 322,067 272,952 SHARE HOLDERS' FUND Paid Up Capital 97,333 73,000 66,500 66,500 66,500 Share Premium 22,977 47,310 41,787 41,787 41,287 Accumulated Earnings 278,968 204,046 161,951 133,427 104,642 Other Reserves 31,030 31,030 31,030 31,030 0 TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' FUND 430,308 355,386 301,268 272,744 212,429 MINORITY INTEREST 0 0 0 0 0 LONG-TERM LIABILITIES 124,053 108,222 53,776 72,801 34,883