|
|
Technical News|Gdmfx Brokerage|Daily
[复制链接]
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2-5-2016 01:13 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: OVERBOUGHT LEVELS FAVOUR BEARISH RETRACEMENTS
EUR/USD
Forex News: German Retail Sales and Eurozone CPI showed disappointing numbers Friday but nonetheless, the pair climbed to test resistance. This was mostly due to US Dollar weakness across the board, not Euro strength.
Technical Outlook
The pair has reached once again the strong resistance zone around 1.1450 after going through 1.1400 like a hot knife through butter. Momentum belongs to the bulls but the current move is overextended, as shown by the overbought position of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index on a four-hour chart. This makes us believe that 1.1450 resistance will hold and will push price lower once again.
Fundamental Outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech today at 2:00 pm GMT, titled “The future of financial markets: A changing view of Asia”. The impact may be strong given the fact that the topic is related to the financial markets but it may also go mostly unnoticed. However, caution is advised, as always when heads of central banks speak publicly.
On the US Dollar side we have the Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release also at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector, regarding their opinion about economic and business conditions and usually higher than anticipated numbers trigger US Dollar strength. The forecast for today is 51.6 while the previous value was 51.8.
GBP/USD
Friday we saw another attempt to break 1.4650 resistance but this resulted in a small bounce lower, followed by choppy movement. The pair is stalling and lacks clear direction.
Technical Outlook
From a daily perspective the pair is overbought and the bulls are dealing with strong resistance at 1.4650. Also, the Relative Strength Index has started to descend, making lower highs while price is making higher highs – this means that bearish divergence is present and is a strong indication that price might start to descend in the near future. On top of this, the Stochastic is overbought and favors a move lower, thus we expect a bearish session, with 1.4565 as target.
Fundamental Outlook
British banks are closed today in observance of May Day and the Pound will not be directly affected by economic indicators.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 3-5-2016 05:20 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
美国加息成疑，美指摇摇欲坠
>>一、日内基本面分析
上周四(4月28日)公布的一份报告称，美国第一季度经济增长速度创下两年来最低，因为面对疲弱的全球金融形势和油价暴跌，美国消费者开始控制支出，就连企业也勒紧了裤腰带。美国商务部(DOC)公布的数据显示，美国第一季度GDP折合年率增长0.5%，低于去年第四季度1.4%的增幅。报告还称，今年一季度GDP除了创下两年最低增速意外，并且是连续第三年第一季度经济增长令人失望。分项数据显示，全球市场风雨飘摇和油价暴跌导致企业投资出现接近7年以来最大滑坡，家庭支出创出2015年初以来最慢增速。受此影响，美元指数重遭打击，大幅下挫，使得贵金属得到了重要支撑。
美国劳工部在上周四的一份报告中称，美国上周初请失业金人数维持在40年低点附近，表明就业市场依然是美国经济中最强劲的部分。美国劳工部(DOL)公布的数据显示，截至4月23日当周，首次申请失业救济人数增加9千人，至25.7万人。之前一周数据修正后为24.8万人，创下1973年以来最低。数据还显示，波动较低的初请失业金人数4周均值从26.075万人降至25.6万，创下1973年12月以来最低。截至4月16日当周，续请失业金人数减少5千人，至213万人，为2000年11月以来最低。虽然美国上周初请失业金人数维持在40年低点附近，但截至4月23日当周，首次申请失业救济人数增加9千人，升至25.7万人。受此影响，美元指数再度承压下挫，贵金属得到一定支持。
德拉基表示，低利率反映了投资需求不足，欧元区需要扩张的宏观经济稳定政策以提振需求。德拉基指出，对低利率的长期回应将是结构性再平衡，低利率或负利率并非史无前例。货币政策不能提高长期实际利率，只能通过结构性改革完成，结构性再平衡进展过于缓慢；中期来看，扩张性政策对储户有利，欧盟机构改革对于提振需求来说至关重要；从长期来看，提升实质回报率的方法必须是使全球储蓄和投资实现平衡。目前别无选择，只有继续执行扩张性政策直至经济中的过度闲置被消化，以及通胀状况再度与物价稳定目标保持长期一致。
>>二、外汇期货头寸报告
加元投机净多头增加4691份(或64%)至11999份
澳元投机净多头增加15434份(或35%)至59540份
ICE美元指数投机净多头减少2119份(或16%)至11330份
>>三、交易策略
XAUUSD：黄金日线高位小阴应该只是修正，或者回踩确认支撑，日线十字的意义不属于见顶，没有道理在日线震荡很久，终于两阳突破之后就开始走十字回落，但回调还有一定空间，预计在1280-85区域，这个支撑区域我在周评中说是本周行情强弱分水岭，现在仍然维持这一观点，在这之上继续看涨千三，这周一旦跌破那么高点就难出，又要震荡酝酿一段时间才能继续上涨，在昨天美盘回落之后，今天重新突破1303有一定难度，但日线小阴压制也没那么强，倾向于高位震荡寻求支撑，区间1280-1303，不追单，区间内尽量低多操作；日内走势，黄金1280-1303区间内接近交易。
XAGUSD:白银前面上升幅度大，其实上周黄金大涨，白银都只是跟随性的意思意思，最近金银走势并不同步，你方唱罢我登场，周初我们计划回落17.5一线做多，昨天震荡之后晚间回落给到位置，但从日线和小时线的形态来看，调整可能比我想象的还要深一些，所以今天17.5一带多单也不做持有，从日线形态入手，今天反弹17.7-8区域小空，因为前面上升不太稳固，做空一天看后面有没有机会进一步调整下来，如果可能的话看低到17附近再多；日内走势，白银17.7-8轻仓空，止损18，目标17。
GDMFX每日操作简引
品 种 方 向 入场区域 支撑位 压力位
EURUSD 多 1.1500 1.1460 1.1650
GBPUSD 空 1.4700 1.4500 1.4750
AUDUSD 多 0.7630 0.7590 0.7750
USDJPY 空 107.00 105.50 107.50
XAUUSD 多 1285.0 1280.0 1305.0
XAGUSD 空 17.70 17.20 17.90
Crude-Oil 空 45.50 43.50 46.00
>>四、日内消息提醒
日期 时间 事件 重要性 前值 市场预测
05/03 09:45 中国4月财新制造业采购经理人指数 中 49.7 49.9
05/03 12:30 澳大利亚5月央行利率决议 高 2.0% 2.0%
05/03 21:45 美国4月ISM纽约企业活动指数 中 50.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 4-5-2016 09:52 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TRIES TO FIGHT BACK AHEAD OF ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro continued its assault yesterday, proving that the break of 1.1450 was indeed a real one. The economic calendar was light but the session didn’t lack volatility.
Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s bull run found a top (at least a temporary one) at 1.1615 but now it looks like the overbought condition signalled by the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index is finally starting to push price lower. The last few days have been very volatile so today we may see a slower day and we don’t expect the pair to print a new high. First potential support zone is located around 1.1450 but it’s a long distance to travel in a day so we don’t anticipate a touch of this level.
Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look into U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows fluctuations in the number of new jobs created during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls released 2 days later but the impact is strong nonetheless, with higher numbers than the forecast 205K being beneficial for the US Dollar.
GBP/USD
The British Manufacturing PMI released yesterday failed to surpass or even meet analysts’ expectations and as a result the Pound gave back most of the gains achieved during the last days. Now the pair is trading again below 1.4650, a level that acted as strong resistance in the past.
Technical Outlook
The fall seen yesterday brought price very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and to the level at 1.4565. If the uptrend is going to continue, we will probably see a bounce higher in this zone but a bearish break of the moving average would show that maybe a new downtrend is about to start. If this is the case, the first bearish target will become 1.4475, otherwise we may see another attempt to move above 1.4650.
Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction PMI comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the Construction sector. The anticipated number is 54.1, almost identical to the previous 54.2; higher values show optimism and usually take the pair higher.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 5-5-2016 09:17 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
金价回调正当时，你我共享黄金单
>>一、日内基本面分析
北京时间5月4日(周三)隔夜美国公布的4月ADP就业数据表现不如预期，美国4月ADP民间就业岗位创2013年4月以来最低增幅。4月新增ADP就业为15.6万人，大幅不及19.5万预期，创下三年新低，这意味着周五非农数据或表现不佳。此后黄金一度强势反弹10美元，但涨势未能持久。之后公布的美国3月ISM非制造业PMI指数升至55.7，为12月来最高；美国3月工厂订单月率好于预期，意味着制造业颓势可能接近尾声。从数据公布细节看，金融服务业和制造业新增就业大幅下降，这也跟之前美国公布的制造业数据低迷相吻合。这导致美国股市继续延续了前一日交易日的跌势，且跌幅接近前一个交易日。美元指数反倒出现反弹行情，这也导致非美货币出现回撤修正，国际金价也进入第三天修正行情，国际油价出现企稳反弹行情。
虽然本周以来新兴经济体放缓的忧虑重燃，但美元指数仍录得升幅。一方面原因是美联储官员偏鹰派的言论，另一方面是表现尚可的经济数据。在周五非农就业数据公布前，投资者普遍对此前美元的跌势进行空头回补。原油方面，美国EIA原油库存数据大幅增加，但加拿大供应中断、美国和中国供应减少的忧虑却支撑油价回升，油价在震荡中微幅收高。具体市场上，美元指数小幅攀升，非农数据前空头回补头寸支撑美元，当日美国经济数据整体表现好坏参半；欧元兑美元窄幅震荡交投于1.15关口下方，受疲弱的经济数据以及欧洲央行官员口头干预忧虑的拖累；金价从15个月高位进一步回落，受美元走高打压；油价震荡交投，先扬后抑，上周美国原油库存增幅超过预期。
周五非农数据前，美元指数空头回补头寸可能暂时支撑美元。外汇经纪商OANDA驻新加坡资深交易员Stephen Innes称，美国本周晚些时候公布就业数据前，空头轧平仓位可能暂时支撑美元。美国政府将于周五公布更加全面地反应就业市场状况的非农就业报告。一项调查显示，分析师预计4月非农就业岗位增加20.2万，3月增幅为21.5万。失业率预计持稳在5.0%。对于周五的就业报告分析指出，到目前为止，经济成长迟滞并未影响到就业市场的复苏。美元走强和全球需求疲弱重创美国出口，进而拖累经济成长。另外，受去年油价重挫影响，能源行业大幅削减支出，以及企业消化积压库存也制约了美国经济成长。
>>二、外汇期货头寸报告
加元投机净多头增加4691份(或64%)至11999份
澳元投机净多头增加15434份(或35%)至59540份
ICE美元指数投机净多头减少2119份(或16%)至11330份
>>三、交易策略
XAUUSD：黄金将形态走好，然后等非农来做指引是比较好的选择，上周日线和周线收线太好，只要形态不提前走坏，非农就有机会重启上升，而且昨晚ADP数据来看，似乎就业情况并不理想，可能进一步影响到非农数据表现，昨天欧盘1284空获利7美金，美盘1283做多看涨1288，两单全胜，今天再接再厉，只多不空，关注1270一带支撑，前面周初两天调整还不能看出调整力度，通过昨天盘中表现我认为空头力度不是太强，现在调整基本到位，今天尽量低多不要错过后面的上升；日内走势，黄金1273-74多，止损1268，目标1295。
XAGUSD:白银日线已经由前面两天的调整转为昨天的下探回升，看看日线已经给出了答案，走势基本符合预期，因为我们前面小空白银看跌到17一带，回调最低则是17.1附近，在日线下探回升之后，按照白银的波动速度，基本上已经没可能走出大幅下跌，所以依然是17-17.1区域支撑，逢低做多，看后面日线的反弹幅度，应该在非农之前问题不大，后面如果非农利好再重启上升；日内走势，白银17.2多，止损17，目标17.7。
GDMFX每日操作简引
品 种 方 向 入场区域 支撑位 压力位
EURUSD 多 1.1450 1.1420 1.1580
GBPUSD 空 1.4550 1.4400 1.4580
AUDUSD 空 0.7630 0.7500 0.7670
USDJPY 空 107.20 105.50 107.50
XAUUSD 多 1277.0 1274.0 1298.0
XAGUSD 空 17.70 17.20 17.90
Crude-Oil 空 45.50 43.50 46.00
>>四、日内消息提醒
日期 时间 事件 重要性 前值 市场预测
05/05 16:30 英国4月服务业采购经理人指数 中 53.7 53.5
05/05 16:30 英国4月综合采购经理人指数 中 53.6 53.2
05/05 20:30 美国上周续请失业金人数 中 213万
05/05 20:30 美国上周初请失业金人数 中 25.7万 26.3万
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 6-5-2016 07:13 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: BEARS EXTEND GAINS AHEAD OF KEY NON-FARM PAYROLLS DATA
EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday we had another session dominated by the U.S. Dollar and we saw the bears score an important victory by breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside. The fundamental scene was calm, without major economic releases.
Technical Outlook
The pair is now trading below 1.1450 and below the 50 period EMA so we can say that the US Dollar made a spectacular comeback and that it’s very possible to see further downside movement. However, the pair traveled a long distance without retracement so the probability of a bullish correction is now greater. This potential correction is likely to touch the moving average or the level at 1.1450 and if a bearish bounce occurs here, the uptrend is probably over and the pair will head towards 1.1335.
Fundamental Outlook
The technical side will be overshadowed today by the release of the most important U.S. jobs indicator: the Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as Non-Farm Payrolls), scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The report tracks changes in the number of new jobs created during the previous month and higher numbers than the forecast 203K usually create US Dollar strength, thus a move down for the pair. Caution is recommended because volatility increases almost always at the time of this release.
GBP/USD
The Pound had a mixed day, with a worse than expected Services PMI but support couldn’t be broken decisively and overall we saw choppy price action.
Technical Outlook
The pair is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.4475. This support was breached yesterday but price soon returned above it, showing that it’s time for a breather before the next move. This stalemate will most likely come to an end today when the U.S. jobs data is released but until that happens, we don’t expect major developments.
Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases so the main focus will be the NFP and its result will likely influence the pair’s direction.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 9-5-2016 08:48 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: BULLS FAIL TO CAPITALIZE ON DISAPPOINTING NFP, CLASSIC ‘BOUNCE OR BREAK’ SCENARIO IN PLAY
EUR/USD
Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report disappointed Friday, showing a figure of only 160K compared to the forecast 203K. The US Dollar initially lost ground against the Euro but recovered soon after and the pair finished the day almost to the exact place it started it.
Technical Outlook
Currently price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bulls couldn’t capitalize on disappointing U.S. data. This shows that the US Dollar is appealing to investors and that we may see bearish price action as long as 1.1450 is resistance. However, the oversold condition of the Stochastic warns that we may see a move up, but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition so the picture is mixed. The key level for today is 1.1385; a break will make 1.1335 the first target while a bounce will probably take the pair back into the zone around 1.1450.
Fundamental Outlook
The German Factory Orders are released today at 6:00 am GMT, showing changes in the value of orders placed with factories. The anticipated change is 0.7%, better than the previous -1.2% and higher numbers are beneficial to the Euro but the impact of this indicator is often muted. Also today the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by personalities from the financial and political scene. The meetings are closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists and this may generate some volatility.
GBP/USD
The pair behaved erratically Friday at the time of the NFP release and tried to push above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but bounced lower eventually.
Technical Outlook
It looks like the bears are winning the battle but the worse than expected U.S. jobs data is likely to weaken the US Dollar. On top of that, both oscillators are close to their respective oversold levels so the Pound bulls are likely to push the pair higher. If this is the case, the most important barrier will be represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if it cannot be surpassed, we expect bearish action until 1.4350 is reached.
Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will not be affected by major news releases today so the main focus will be on the technical aspect. Note that the Eurogroup Meetings may have an effect on the pair, thus caution is recommended.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 10-5-2016 08:46 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE MAKES WAY FOR TECHNICAL MOVES. BULLISH CORRECTIONS EXPECTED
EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair hesitated yesterday and stalled around the level at 1.1385 despite better than German Factory Orders numbers. Some volatility was seen later in the afternoon but no major advances were made.
Technical Outlook
We still maintain a neutral bias until either 1.1385 or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken. Currently control doesn’t belong to either side price and is trapped between the mentioned support and resistance but the oscillators are close to oversold and this slightly tilts the balance in favour of the bulls. A move above the moving average will likely find resistance at 1.1450 and a bearish break of 1.1385 would make 1.1335 the first target.
Fundamental Outlook
FOMC Member William Dudley will speak today at 7:15 am GMT in Zurich about the international monetary system. Although the discussion is not strictly related to the financial market, some volatility may be generated, especially considering that the rest of the day lacks major economic releases.
GBP/USD
The pair remained below 1.4475 yesterday and even tested the level from below, turning it into resistance. The day lacked major headlines and most of the movement was generated by the technical aspect.
Technical Outlook
Now that price bounced lower at 1.4475, thus confirming it as resistance, we expect the bearish movement to continue until 1.4350 is touched. Once and if price gets here, it’s very possible to see a move back into higher territory, mainly because the current move down is overextended (as shown by the oversold condition of the two oscillators) and a bullish correction is due.
Fundamental Outlook
The only notable indicator is the British Goods Trade Balance, scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks the difference between imported and exported goods and usually, higher numbers than the forecast -11.2B are beneficial for the British Pound.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 11-5-2016 05:48 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: PRESSURE MOUNTS AND THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG MOVEMENT INCREASES
EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair continued its slow movement that still lacks a clear direction. Probably the fact that no major indicators were released had an important part to play in all this.
Technical Outlook
The support at 1.1385 was broken yesterday but the move lacked determination and soon the pair climbed above the mentioned level. The picture remains blurry until some sort of fundamental event takes place or a major economic indicator is released and for the time being, we can note that the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, a fact that favours bearish movement, but the Stochastic has spent a lot of time in oversold, a fact that favours bullish movement. That being said, our bias is neutral until a clear breakout occurs.
Fundamental Outlook
We have another lacklustre day ahead, with the only notable event being the release of the U.S. Federal Budget Balance. It shows the difference between income and spending for the federal government but usually it doesn’t have a strong impact; however, higher numbers than the forecast 116.2B can be beneficial for the US Dollar.
GBP/USD
The Pound completed a timid retracement to the upside but the bulls didn’t threaten resistance and overall we had a slow day.
Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s movement was mainly bullish but we don’t expect the current move to extend past the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.4475. Instead we consider this a good place for price to bounce lower, making a run for 1.4350 support. However, a break of the mentioned resistance zone would make the short term bias bullish, anticipating a move into 1.4565.
Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector. The anticipated change is 0.4% (previous -1.1%) and higher numbers bring Pound strength.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 12-5-2016 05:33 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: POUND BUCKLES UP FOR STRONG MOVEMENT AHEAD OF BOE CLUSTER OF EVENTS
EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro climbed higher yesterday without an obvious catalyst behind the move. Most of the session was bullish, with price approaching 1.1450.
Technical Outlook
The current move is likely to touch 1.1450 resistance but is not backed by a fundamental event or economic indicator so we don’t expect it to extend past the said resistance. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was clearly broken so the short term outlook is bullish but if one of the oscillators (or both) reaches overbought, we expect the pair to turn lower and make another run for 1.1385.
Fundamental Outlook
We have yet another slow day ahead from a fundamental perspective. There’s nothing important on the Euro calendar and on the US Dollar side we have the Unemployment Claims, an indicator which shows how many persons asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous month. Usually this indicator doesn’t have a huge impact but a larger number than the anticipated 277K can trigger US Dollar weakness; the time of the release is 12:30 pm GMT.
GBP/USD
The Pound-Dollar continued its slow movement, with a slight descent due to worse than expected Manufacturing Production numbers; however, the move lower was soon reversed.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.4475 resistance so our bias remains bearish, anticipating a move into 1.4350. A break above the 2 types of resistance mentioned earlier will tilt the balance in favour of the bulls and will make 1.4565 the first target but keep in mind that today the fundamental aspect will play an important role.
Fundamental Outlook
It’s an important day for the Pound as the Bank of England has prepared a cluster of events: at 11:00 am GMT the Inflation Report is released, containing the Bank’s projections for economy and inflation for the next 2 years. At the same time the interest rate is announced (no change expected from the current 0.50%), the rate votes (how each MPC member has voted on the rate change) and a Monetary Policy Summary (containing the reasons that triggered the rate decision). Later at 11:45 am GMT, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report. All these events are likely to trigger strong volatility on all Pound related pairs so we recommend caution.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 13-5-2016 07:56 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: CLOSING A SLOW WEEK WITH A BANG: GERMAN GDP, U.S. RETAIL SALES
EUR/USD
Forex News: The bears made a run for 1.1385 support yesterday but failed to break it and the pair instead bounced higher, currently testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.
Technical Outlook
The bounce seen at 1.1385 can extend into 1.1450 if price manages to pass the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the four hour Stochastic is already showing a bearish cross. This suggests that a failed attempt to move above the 50 EMA will probably trigger a move into 1.1335. However the entire week has been very slow and today we finally have some action on the fundamental scene so that will play an important role for price direction.
Fundamental Outlook
Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Preliminary Gross Domestic is released and expected to show a 0.6% change, better than the previous 0.3%; such an increase is likely to bring Euro strength. The more important event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 0.3%, same as last month. Since sales made at retail outlets represent a major part of the entire consumer spending, higher numbers are likely to generate US Dollar strength, thus bearish movement on the pair.
The last important release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT in the form of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of consumers regarding the current economic situation. The forecast is 89.9 and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.
GBP/USD
The Pound initially weakened at the time of the BOE releases but it strengthened soon after, during Mark Carney’s speech. The interest rate remained unchanged, as expected and all members voted in unanimity.
Technical Outlook
The pair broke the resistance zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.4475, putting the bulls in control of short term movement. This means that we will likely see a move into 1.4565 but a quick move below 1.4475 and the 50 EMA would invalidate such a scenario and would make 1.4350 the target once again.
Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the main market movers will come from the United States and also from the technical side.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 16-5-2016 06:31 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FED官员重申加息，黄金上升趋势未改
>>一、日内基本面分析
美国商务部周五公布的数据前显示，4月零售额攀升了1.3%，为2015年3月份以来最大增幅，在13种主要的销售类别中有11种获得增长；对汽车销售商的需求攀升至今年高点，零售销售和在线贸易者需求涨幅也达到近两年高点。美国商务部(DOC)周五发布报告称，该国3月商业库存和销售月率表现均大幅好于预期，或有利于美国今年第一季度GDP增速上调。详细数据显示，美国3月商业库存月率增加0.4%，预估为增加0.2%，2月修正后为下跌0.1%，与前值一致。此外，密歇根大学5月美国消费者信心指数初值触及2015年6月以来最高，远高于市场预估和4月终值。 具体数据显示，密歇根大学5月美国消费者信心指数初值为95.8，预估为90.0，4月终值为89.0。
评级机构穆迪(Moody's)上周六(5月14日)宣布，下调调降沙特、阿曼与巴林的债信评等，并给予其它几个中东国家负面的评等展望，因低油价继续拖累该地区的政府财政。穆迪将沙特的长期发行人评等下调一个级距至A1，但给予其稳定的评等展望，表示该国上月宣布的全面经济改革可能稳定政府预算。该机构指出，“沙特制订了大胆、全面的计划来推进经济与资产负债表的多元化，即使部分取得成功，也应会稳定其信用状况，进而可使其在将来回到较高的债信评等。”不过，穆迪预计2016-2020年沙特的预算赤字预计平均将达国内生产总值(GDP)的9.5%，这将需要总计3240亿美元的融资。沙特如何填补巨大的预算赤字仍然不确定。
旧金山联储主席威廉姆斯上周五(5月13日)重申美联储升息步伐将是循序渐进的。他进一步指出，美国经济肯定看起来很好，2016年应该很像2015年，就业持续增长、GDP稳定增长、通胀取得进展。今年GDP增幅应该有2%，第一季度经济数据不能完全体现经济势头。美国堪萨斯联储主席乔治(Esther George)上周四(5月13日)再度呼吁加息，并称当前的利率水平对于如今的经济状况而言太低了。她还表示，支持美联储渐进加息，逐步重返更为正常的水平。
>>二、外汇期货头寸报告
欧元、英镑投机多头及空头均大幅减仓
澳元投机净多头大幅减少27%或14237份
黄金机净多头多头连增7周后首次减少
>>三、交易策略
XAUUSD：黄金还处于上升趋势中，短期则在1303遇阻后震荡下行，在非农反弹之后，上周一直接弱势下跌，随后日线始终没能反弹上去，短线在上周一下跌和非农高点1295的基础上看空，正好上周五下探回升，日线既然无法形成连续下跌，那么反弹上来继续测试阻力我们再空，连接1303-1295高点阻力在1284附近，这是周初的反弹做空点，因为上周四冲高1281回落，现在还不确定1284一定会到，但既然周五没有延续下跌，我个人认为应该还是有机会反弹给到的，那么周初我建议多等一等，日线冲高之后我们再空单跟进；日内走势，黄金1283-85空，止损1290，目标1260、1250。
XAGUSD:白银调整相对黄金更清晰一点，虽然在周三的时候再度反弹到17.5这里刷新了周高点，但能够遇阻非农高点继续下跌还是不错的，但白银又与黄金一样，大周期比如月线大阳的前提下，根本看不了大幅调整，放到这周来说，即使与黄金同步下跌，调整极限也就16.5一带，所以操作上周初白银如果反弹接近上周高点17.5可空，最好等黄金反弹1284，然后白银可能17.3，这样同步做空下来，后面再在16.5-8区域布局中线多单，如果后面黄金能继续看涨千三，白银应该有能力触摸18；日内走势，白银17.3空，止损17.5，目标16.5-8后再接多。
GDMFX每日操作简引
品 种 方 向 入场区域 支撑位 压力位
EURUSD 空 1.1350 1.1220 1.1480
GBPUSD 空 1.4380 1.4230 1.4420
AUDUSD 空 0.7330 0.7200 0.7370
USDJPY 空 109.20 107.50 109.50
XAUUSD 空 1277.0 1260.0 1282.0
XAGUSD 空 17.15 16.70 17.30
Crude-Oil 多 46.00 45.50 48.00
>>四、日内消息提醒
日期 时间 事件 重要性 前值 市场预测
05/16 07:01 英国5月Rightmove房价指数年率 中 7.3%
05/16 20:30 美国5月纽约联储制造业指数 中 9.56 7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 17-5-2016 06:26 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY PICKS UP AS INFLATION NUMBERS COME OUT FOR THE U.S. AND U.K
EUR/USD
Forex News: Trading was slow yesterday but the pair showed a timid retracement to the upside, which is currently testing the level at 1.1335. The economic calendar was light, without major events.
Technical Outlook
The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index touched their respective oversold levels and price bounced higher, touching 1.1335. However, the short term control belongs to the bears and now price is re-testing the recently broken 1.1335 level; this is a good place for the pair to resume downside movement but the oscillators are just coming out of oversold and this favors a continuation of the current move up. If this is the case, we don’t believe that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be broken to the upside and instead we expect a bounce lower if price gets there.
Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Consumer Price Index shows changes in prices paid by consumers for their purchases; this indicator is one of the main gauges of inflation and usually has a strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher values strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.4% compared to the previous 0.1% and the time of release is 12:30 pm GMT.
GBP/USD
After reaching the support zone between 1.4350 and 1.4320 the Pound bounced higher but overall we didn’t have substantial developments yesterday and the trading session was rather slow.
Technical Outlook
We expect the current bounce to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once this type of resistance is touched, the probability of a move down will increase. On the other hand, if the pair resumes downside movement right away, we expect it to break 1.4350 – 1.4320 zone and to make its way towards 1.4230 (probably this destination will not be reached in one day).
Fundamental Outlook
Similar to the United States, the United Kingdom releases its Consumer Price Index today. The forecast is a change of 0.5% (same as previous) and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound; the scheduled time of release is 8:30 am GMT.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 18-5-2016 09:43 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES TO BE RELEASED, HEAVY US DOLLAR MOVEMENT EXPECTED
EUR/USD
Forex News: The market showed indecision yesterday, moving down when the U.S. posted better than expected inflation data and then making a complete 180 degree turn, heading higher above resistance.
Technical Outlook
The level at 1.1335 acts as good resistance so far, with several candles bouncing off of it and this makes it an important level for short term price action. A bullish break will most likely extend above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and into 1.1385, while a bearish bounce will open the door for a move into 1.1250 support. The oscillators still favour a move up but don’t show strong momentum and could turn at any moment.
Fundamental Outlook
The FOMC Meeting Minutes are released today at 6:00 pm GMT and this will be the day’s main event. The document shows details of the latest FOMC meeting and often contains hints about future rate changes. If this is the case, we expect heavy movement on all US Dollar related pairs.
GBP/USD
The British CPI released yesterday disappointed, showing just a 0.3% change (forecast 0.5%) and as a result the Pound gave back some of the earlier gains.
Technical Outlook
Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, found resistance at 1.4525 and then bounced lower. Currently it is testing the moving average from above and the two oscillators are starting to turn downwards. All this makes us anticipate a bearish trading session, with 1.4350 as target. On the other hand, if the pair remains above the 50 EMA, we are likely to see another attempt to break 1.4525.
Fundamental Outlook
The British Claimant Count Change is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT. This indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people that asked for social help and usually, higher numbers than the anticipated 4.0K are detrimental for the Pound because they suggest a future decrease in consumer spending and economic activity.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 19-5-2016 08:43 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FED加息升温，黄金高空下降
>>一、日内基本面分析
周三(5月18日)美联储会议纪要的公布使得美元触及三周高点，而金价跌幅超过1%，加息预期的增加使得黄金受到打压。美联储公布4月会议纪要显示，虽然决策者就未来是否有足够的数据为6月升息提供理据表达了多种观点，但如果经济形势允许，6月加息是有可能的。其中几位决策者认为美国经济前景面临的风险目前基本平衡；其它多位委员则认为风险偏下档。部分决策者对金融市场可能没有准确评估6月升息几率表示担忧，强调美联储清晰沟通将如何对未来出炉的数据作出响应至关重要。多数美联储官员认为如数据继续与第二季度GDP反弹，就业市场条件改善以及通胀持续回升的趋势一致，6月加息或将是合适的。
从美联储会议纪要内容中出现最多的就是“许多官员”，他们密切关注全球风险，他们仍然认为前景面临下行风险，而最后以大多数官员认为‘如果’经济保证，6月加息是可能的。好吧，很清楚了6月加息只是一个选项而已，从许多官员的担忧来看，这样的可能性基本很低。再回到数据，4月非农就业数据表现极差，4月的通货膨胀数据零售销售和消费者物价指数CPI表现较好。怎么办？美联储货币政策制定的两个绝对指标：就业和通货膨胀。仔细解读之后不难风险，所谓的鹰派也不过就是没有表现出鸽派言论而已，便被解读为鹰派言论。因此市场对这样的消息消化也将是很快的，焦点可能指向5月就业数据。
高盛发布了一份较为重要的投资展望报告，其中将股市前景下调至‘中性’，并认为大宗商品前景正面，且特别指出石油价格仍有反弹空间。此外，高盛还强调美元短线被低估，未来一年会逐渐反弹。这意味着中期贵金属市场或持续承压。下午美元指数已经反弹突破了94.85附近阻力线，晚上一旦突破95.05附近阻力，金银价格空头则可能会进一步增加。实物黄金方面，黄金ETF今天小幅增持了4.76吨，持仓量上升至856吨。从黄金ETF的持仓来看，虽然短线金价有所承压，但是形成单边空头的概率仍然较低。
>>二、外汇期货头寸报告
欧元、英镑投机多头及空头均大幅减仓
澳元投机净多头大幅减少27%或14237份
黄金机净多头多头连增7周后首次减少
>>三、交易策略
XAUUSD：黄金日线报收实体大阴柱，只要行情不出现反转的信号，那么就坚定顺势看跌的观点。而弱势行情中不能去期望大力度的反弹，否则行情又将演变为震荡修正。现在的局势是顺势做空成必然操作，追求位置的同时不要踏空行情，今日早盘直接1261开空单，直接看跌看新低，下一个目标是1250附近。逆势的多单则暂时放一放了，下方关注低点连接1207.7-1227.4上行趋势线支撑位置，具体位置在1245附近，就算要去多也应该要跌到这种位置去操作。最后强调，当前最重要的操作是顺势做空单，延续性的回落看跌看新低，持有空单。
XAGUSD:白银走震荡下行，昨天我以为随着时间推移，白银会慢慢的突破前面高点的下降趋势线压制走上升，从而带动黄金走上升，可是盘中黄金亚盘首先就在1280开始走回落，白银则继续受压下降趋势线回落，这个行情就变味了，到了美盘就不用说了，黄金我们全部都是空，白银自然没有上涨的道理，隔夜白银大幅下跌到17之下，小时线上反弹继续空，阻力也就是17一带，以昨晚美盘反弹高点为止损看空；日内走势，白银16.95空，止损17.15，目标16.5。
GDMFX每日操作简引
品 种 方 向 入场区域 支撑位 压力位
EURUSD 空 1.1280 1.1150 1.1320
GBPUSD 空 1.4580 1.4400 1.4620
AUDUSD 空 0.7250 0.7100 0.7280
USDJPY 多 109.60 109.20 111.50
XAUUSD 空 1265.0 1240.0 1270.0
XAGUSD 空 17.10 16.50 17.30
Crude-Oil 空 48.00 45.50 48.50
>>四、日内消息提醒
日期 时间 事件 重要性 前值 市场预测
05/19 09:30 澳大利亚4月失业率 高 5.7% 5.8%
05/19 09:30 澳大利亚4月就业人数变化 高 2.61万 1.2万
05/19 20:30 美国5月费城联储制造业指数 中 -1.6 3
05/19 20:30 美国上周续请失业金人数 中 216.1万
05/19 20:30 美国上周初请失业金人数 中 29.4万 27.5万
05/19 22:00 美国4月咨商会领先指标月率 中 0.2% 0.4%
05/19 19:30 欧央行公布4月份利率决议的会议纪要
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 20-5-2016 05:03 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: FINANCE LEADERS GATHER AS THE G7 MEETINGS START
EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair dropped below 1.1210 support,
Technical Outlook
The break of 1.1210 is an important victory for the bears and opens the door for 1.1150 support but now price has moved above the level so we may be dealing with a false break. If this is the case, we will likely see an extended retracement to the upside, probably into 1.1250. This scenario is supported by the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index.
Fundamental Outlook
Today the Group of Seven (G7) Meetings start and will last throughout the weekend. These meetings are attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the 7 member states and can have a strong impact on the financial markets but the effect cannot be anticipated, thus caution is recommended during the day.
GBP/USD
The Pound continued to strengthen, helped by a better than expected reading of the British Retail Sales (actual 1.3%, forecast 0.6%), but bounced lower after a failed attempt to break 1.4650.
Technical Outlook
The bearish bounce seen around 1.4650 combined with the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index is likely to trigger an extended move south, with 1.4565 as first target, followed by 1.4525. Both the Pound and the US Dollar are strong at the moment and this may generate a stalemate, where price remains between 1.4650 and 1.4565.
Fundamental Outlook
British personalities will attend the G7 Meetings and this may trigger increased volatility on Pound related pairs but as mentioned before, the effect is hard to anticipate and will depend on the matters discussed.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2016 08:29 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: BEARS CONTINUE THEIR ATTACK, LIMITED UPSIDE CORRECTIONS EXPECTED
EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s price movement was mixed and the pair stayed close to 1.1200, bouncing above and below it. The economic calendar lacked major events and this contributed to the slow movement.
Technical Outlook
The pair lacks clear direction and lingers around 1.1200 while investors decide the next move. The latest trend is bearish and we expect a continuation after the current retracement is complete but the Stochastic is just exiting oversold, heading up and so is the Relative Strength Index; this favours a move into 1.1250 but we don’t expect this barrier to be broken to the upside today.
Fundamental Outlook
The economic calendar is light but two notable events are the release of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.9) and Services PMI (forecast 53.3), both scheduled at 8:00 am GMT. These surveys are leading indicators of economic health, so higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is often mild if the actual value matches the forecast or comes very close.
GBP/USD
The US Dollar continued to strengthen against the Pound Friday and the pair descended below 1.4525; overall the session was bearish, without any significant upside movement.
Technical Outlook
Today’s highlight will be the battle for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average: if the bears manage to break it, we will probably see a move close to 1.4400 and otherwise we will likely see a move towards 1.4565 (probably these targets will not be reached during the course of one day). The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index show good downwards momentum, favouring a break of the 50 period EMA.
Fundamental Outlook
The Pound’s direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 24-5-2016 08:28 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ZEW, EUROGROUP MEETINGS, BRITISH INFLATION REPORT HEARINGS – VOLATILITY GUARANTEED
EUR/USD
Forex News: European data came out close to analysts’ expectations, thus the impact on the market was moderate; nonetheless, the pair showed bearish movement, breaking immediate support.
Technical Outlook
Price broke the support at 1.1210 and now seems to be headed towards the next bearish target: 1.1150. The Stochastic attempts to a bearish crossover and the Relative Strength Index is also heading south, increasing the chances of a move into support but a quick move above 1.1210 would invalidate such a scenario and would make 1.1250 the likely destination for the day.
Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6-month outlook. Due to their jobs, they are well informed and this makes their opinions matter more so a higher value than the forecast 12.1 will likely strengthen the Euro. Also, the Eurogroup Meetings start today and this is another reason for increased volatility.
GBP/USD
The pair showed choppy movement yesterday, trying to breakout but failing on several occasions. For now price is still between support and resistance but a true breakout is more probable.
Technical Outlook
Price bounced lower at 1.4525 and higher at 1.4475, moving above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the next direction is not decided yet. The Stochastic is crossing upwards below its 20 level, hinting about a potential move up but the Relative Strength Index is still in the middle of the range, without clear direction. All this makes our bias neutral until a strong breakout occurs; if the recently broken level will be tested from the other side, resulting in a bounce, this will further confirm the break.
Fundamental Outlook
The Inflation Report Hearings take place today at 9:00 am GMT; during these hearings, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. The event can generate strong movement, but especially so if the discussions touch the currency market topic.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 25-5-2016 09:42 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: CURRENCY WARS: US DOLLAR GAINS AGAINST EURO, LOSES AGAINST POUND
EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro weakened yesterday, mostly due to a much worse than expected German ZEW Survey. The session was bearish and the 1.1150 target was reached.
Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index has been showing bullish divergence (price is making lower lows while the RSI is just bouncing on its 30 level) for a long time and this makes us anticipate a bullish session. However, if moves up occur, this should be considered just a correction, not a trend reversal as long as the pair is still trading below 1.1210. If the pair continues lower, the next target is the support at 1.1085.
Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is the release of another German survey: the IFO Business Climate. About 7,000 businesses are asked to give their assessment regarding economic conditions as well as a 6 month outlook. Because of its large sample, this survey is highly respected and higher numbers than the anticipated 106.9 strengthen the Euro; the time of release is 8:00 am GMT.
GBP/USD
The Pound strengthened on the back of improved inflation expectations as shown by the Inflation Report Hearings, so the pair had a bullish session, breaking key resistance.
Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.4565 was clearly broken yesterday and the two oscillators show good upside momentum so we can expect to see further movement north, probably into 1.4650. If by the time the said resistance is reached, the oscillators enter overbought, we expect to see a bounce lower. If 1.4650 is broken, the next destination is the high at 1.4765 but this will probably take more than one day.
Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today thus price direction will me mostly decided by the technical aspect.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 26-5-2016 05:48 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: POUND BREAKS RESISTANCE, CORRECTIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF BRITISH GDP DATA
EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had a very choppy day yesterday, without any substantial advances to either side; this was mostly due to a lacklustre fundamental environment and the fact that the only notable indicator of the day showed a figure close to forecast.
Technical Outlook
The pair hovered above and below 1.1150 for almost the entire day and this is a sign that the bulls and bears are taking a breather and don’t show much interest. We still maintain our view that a bullish retracement is coming, because the pair has travelled too far without a proper correction and both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are oversold. If the correction occurs, we are likely to see a move close to 1.1210, otherwise 1.1085 remains the target.
Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years and higher figures than the forecast 0.3% (previous 0.8%) show increased economic activity, potentially strengthening the US Dollar.
GBP/USD
The Pound continued its advance, scoring another victory against the greenback and breaking 1.4650 with authority.
Technical Outlook
The break seen yesterday will probably draw in more buyers who in turn will take price higher in the long run. However, at the moment both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are overbought, calling for a bounce lower. The key resistance at 1.4765 sits in front of rising price and this combined with the position of the oscillators, will probably trigger a move lower.
Fundamental Outlook
The only notable event for the Pound today is the release of the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%, same as previous. This version of the GDP has less importance than the Preliminary and more than the Final version, but usually, numbers above expectations strengthen the Pound.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 27-5-2016 05:42 PM
|
显示全部楼层
|
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR FIGHTS BACK, FUELED BY U.S. GDP DATA
EUR/USD
Forex News: The release of the Durable Goods orders whipsawed the market and we saw US Dollar weakness although the indicator posted much better than expected numbers. The pair’s climb was partly due to technical reasons as well.
Technical Outlook
Price breached the resistance at 1.1210 and almost touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but is already showing signs of weakness. Downside movement is likely to resume but a close above 1.1210 and the 50 EMA will show that the retracement is still not over and that we will probably see a move into 1.12500. When the oscillators will start to turn south, the probability of a move lower will increase.
Fundamental Outlook
At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released, offering an assessment of the entire economic performance in the United States. Higher numbers than the expected 0.8% usually trigger strength for the US Dollar but as seen from yesterday’s release, caution is recommended because market participants may interpret things differently. Also today, the G7 (Group of Seven) Meetings start in Kashiko Island and this is another reason for increased volatility and possibly irregular movement.
GBP/USD
The British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product released yesterday, matched analysts’ expectations and the event went mostly unnoticed. The entire day lacked strong movement and the pair retreated slightly.
Technical Outlook
The bull run seems exhausted now with both Stochastic and Relative Strength Index curving downwards and coming out of overbought. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see a strong drop but certainly increases the chances of such a move. The first lower barrier is located at 1.4650, while to the upside 1.4765 remains strong resistance.
Fundamental Outlook
The economic calendar doesn’t hold anything important for the Pound, so the pair’s direction will be affected by the G7 Meetings and of course, by the technical aspect.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
 本周最热论坛帖子
|
3184 
74
