Technical News|Gdmfx Brokerage|Daily

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: MARKETS STILL WEIGH THE BREXIT IMPACT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the official results of the Brexit referendum became public but exit polls were already showing that the ‘Leave’ side won. The reverberation in the market was huge, with both the Euro and Pound weakening severely.

Technical Outlook

After reaching the low at 1.0911 the pair retraced higher and is now hovering close to 1.1100. Considering the historical event that occurred last week, the short term direction is difficult to anticipate but there’s an overall wave of pessimism and this will probably lead to more downside movement. We may also see a slowdown compared to Friday’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything important on today’s economic calendar but price action will still be heavily influenced by Britain’s separation from the European Union and volatility will be irregular.


GBP/USD

The United Kingdom decided it will no longer be a part of the European Union. This will hold the headlines for quite a while and we will surely see massive swings in the near future. Friday the pair dropped more than 1,700 pips on the back of Pound weakness.

Technical Outlook

The pair retraced after reaching a low at 1.3227, which is a normal thing after such a huge move but considering the overall geopolitical environment, we expect the downside movement to resume. Volatility is still sky-high so stop losses and position sizes should be adjusted accordingly but this pair remains high risk and extreme caution should be used.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today so price action will be driven by the technical aspect and the aftermath of the Brexit.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES THE ASSAULT ON A WEAKENED POUND

EUR/USD

Forex News: The week opened lower, with a gap that was already closed during yesterday’s trading session and afterwards the pair continued south, without breaking support.

Technical Outlook

Although we saw some bullish action yesterday, overall strength belongs to the bears and the US Dollar is winning the battle. For today we expect a continuation of the down movement, probably through 1.0960 and towards the low at 1.0911 that will probably be broken in the near future. The oscillators are close to oversold but given the whole Brexit turmoil, their importance has diminished.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:00 am GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the European Central Bank Forum, in Sintra. If he touches on the UK situation, we will likely see some effect on the market and as always, caution is advised.

The U.S. Final version of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 12:30 pm GMT, expected to show 1.0% change compared to the previous 0.8%. Higher values are beneficial for the greenback but the Final version is the least important so we don’t expect huge movement. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT an American Consumer Confidence survey is released, acting as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The forecast is 93.2, little changed from the previous 92.6 but higher values usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday belonged to the bears as well, and the entire day price moved lower after a big weekly gap that we don’t expect to be closed soon.

Technical Outlook

Last week’s low at 1.3227 was broken yesterday and at the time of writing the pair made a new low at 1.3119. We anticipate a move lower, probably into 1.3000 area in the near term but this doesn’t mean that retracements will not occur in the meantime. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both severely oversold but as stated before, this has less importance given the current situation. Volatility is still high and irregular movement still possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicator releases but an EU Summit starts today, with the UK exit as the main topic, so we expect strong movement.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EU SUMMIT: EUROPEAN LEADERS DIGEST THE UK SITUATION

EUR/USD

Forex News: European leaders have met yesterday in Brussels to discuss the Brexit and the potential damage it will do to the European Union; the market recuperated some of the losses but nothing substantial. The Summit will continue today.

Technical Outlook

Uncertainty still rules the market because now there are talks about a second UK referendum and possibly a delayed separation from the EU. Yesterday the pair climbed and breached the resistance at 1.1100 but now we see clear signs of rejection and we expect downside movement to resume; if this is the case, the first notable target is 1.0960 but a move above 1.1100 will most likely take price into 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary version of the Consumer Price Index is released and expected to show a change of 0.1% compared to the previous 0.3%. Usually this is an important release but today the EU Summit will continue in Brussels and EU leaders will discuss United Kingdom’s separation from the European Union so we expect this to be the highlight of the day and to influence the pair more than the indicator mentioned earlier.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday and volatility remained high but movement slowed down compared to the previous days.

Technical Outlook

The current climb may extend into the next resistance located at 1.3483 but once and if price gets there, we expect it to start moving on a bearish path again. The first target is 1.3227, followed by the historical low at 1.3119. The oscillators are just exiting oversold, favouring a move into 1.3483 but like we’ve mentioned yesterday, the position of the oscillators is not a clear indication of future direction and it doesn’t hinder a drop even before 1.3483 is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The EU Summit will be today’s main market mover as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BREXIT FALLOUT BRINGS FED RATE SPECULATION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar weakened yesterday and this allowed the pair to move up, breaking 1.1100 resistance. Most of the dollar weakness was generated by speculation that the Fed will not raise rates until 2018 to prevent a deeper impact of the UK exit.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1100 opens the door for a move into 1.1150. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity of the latter level and the two combined will create a confluent zone of resistance that will possibly become a good place for the pair to resume downside movement. Of course the geopolitical aspect still remains the most important and price direction will depend mostly on that rather than technical support and resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Flash Estimate version of the Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:00 am GMT and is expected to show a 0.0% change from the previous -0.1%. The release may be mostly overlooked by market participants, especially if the actual value matches analysts’ prediction but under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound recuperated some of the losses and moved higher yesterday, mostly on the back of weakness in the US Dollar, generated by speculation about Fed rates.

Technical Outlook

It appears as the weekly gap will be closed soon and the pair may find resistance around 1.3655. If this happens, we expect the bears to regain control of price action and the pair to move below 1.3483; the Stochastic is approaching overbought and this adds to the possibility of movement south. The pair remains high risk.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Final version of the Gross Domestic Product will be released today at 8:30 am GMT. This indicator acts as an overall gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important. Nonetheless, higher values than the previous 0.4% can strengthen the Pound but the extent should be limited.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, BEARS READY TO TAKE BACK CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: European inflation showed slight improvement yesterday and this initially strengthened the Euro, taking the pair into resistance, where the bullish momentum faded and rejection was seen.

Technical Outlook

The resistance level at 1.1150 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average created a strong confluence zone that rejected price lower yesterday. The Stochastic shows a bearish cross close to its overbought level and this, combined with the rejection seen at 1.1150, sets the stage for a drop towards 1.0960. On the other hand, if a four hour candle closes above 1.1100, we might see another attempt to break 1.1150 and the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable economic release is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector and usually acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Today’s expected value is 51.3, same as previous and higher numbers can bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Price action slowed down yesterday and the pair started ranging on the lower time frames. After a timid move above 1.3483, price returned below this level.

Technical Outlook

The bullish retracement seems exhausted as shown by the return below 1.3483 and this suggests that the bears may step back in, attempting to move the pair towards 1.3227. The Pound is still weakened by UK’s decision to leave the European Union and this favours moves south, probably towards 1.3000 in the medium term. A clear close above 1.3483 would make 1.3655 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released and the anticipated value is 50.0, almost unchanged from the previous 50.1. Higher numbers are indicative of optimism and may strengthen the Pound to a limited extent.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR IRREGULAR VOLATILITY AS THE U.S. CELEBRATE INDEPENDENCE DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released Friday showed a value of 53.2, better than the forecast 51.3 but despite this, the pair climber for most of the day, breaching resistance.

Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a long upper wick appeared on the candle that breached the line. This is a sign of rejection that makes us anticipate a drop through 1.1100 and into the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. If 1.1100 support rejects price, we expect a break of the 50 period EMA and 1.1150 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s Independence Day so banks across the United States will be closed and volatility will be affected, especially in the New York session. On the Euro side things are slow as well so we may have an overall ranging day.


GBP/USD

The pair moved back into support but momentum faded and it looks like now both bulls and bears are undecided about the next direction. The economic indicators released Friday went mostly unnoticed.

Technical Outlook

The sideways movement seen Friday is likely to continue today so we expect the pair to remain between 1.3227 and 1.3483. On the other hand, a bearish break of 1.3227 support will probably extend into the low at 1.3119. Price direction will also be influenced by the economic data released but the New York session will probably lack major developments due to Independence Day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released, showing the state of the construction sector as perceived by about 170 purchasing managers. The anticipated value is 50.6, slightly lower than the previous 51.2; higher numbers show optimism and usually send the Pound higher.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON POUND AS BOE RELEASES FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT

EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected price action yesterday was slow and this was mostly due to the fact that U.S banks were closed, celebrating Independence Day and on the Euro side no major indicators were released either.

Technical Outlook

The only notable move seen yesterday was a bounce at the bullish trend line. However, at the time of writing, this bounce hasn’t generated a break of resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, running through price. If bullish momentum picks up and 1.1150 is surpassed, we expect a move into 1.1240 during the days to come but this will depend a lot on the economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Factory Orders are released today at 2:00 pm GMT. This is an indicator with a mild impact, that measures changes in the value of orders placed with manufacturers. Higher numbers than the forecast -0.7% usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Pound-Dollar had a slow day, with sideways movement and no major developments.

Technical Outlook

Price remained above 1.3227, moving sideways for the most part of yesterday and this type of behavior usually suggests that a strong move (breakout) is in the making. However, the direction of this potential breakout is hard to anticipate so keep an eye on 1.3227 because a close below it will likely push price into 1.3119. To the upside, 1.3483 remains the first level of interest and although it’s a long travel, price may be able to complete it if volatility is generated by today’s fundamental developments.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will make public the Financial Stability Report and half an hour later, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the report. This document contains the Bank’s point of view regarding overall stability and risks in the financial sector and may contain hints about the direction of monetary policy. The report combined with Carney’s press conference can generate strong movement and potentially irregular price action.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: THE WATERFALL CONTINUES: POUND STRUGGLES TO FIND SUPPORT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued its slow movement yesterday but remained above the bullish trend line. The U.S. Factory Orders came out close to analysts’ expectations and the event did not generate strong impact.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action crated minor resistance at 1.1186; if this barrier is surpassed soon, we expect a touch of 1.1240 but currently price is testing the bullish trend line and we may see a breakout. If 1.1150 holds and the trend line is broken, we will likely see a move into 1.1100 and even lower. The pair has been moving north for a few days but candles are small and now long wicks appear in their upper side. This is a sign of rejection, thus we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed will release today at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details of their latest meeting and insights into the reasoning that determined the most recent rate decision. More importantly, this document may contain hints about future direction of monetary policy and if this is the case, the US Dollar will move strongly so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The Pound resumed bearish action yesterday after a period of sideways movement and continued to depreciate to a low of 1.3050. The Financial Stability Report and Carney’s press conference did not help an already weak Pound to rebound.

Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair had reached a low at 1.3050, breaking the levels seen immediately after the Brexit vote on June 23. This low will probably be surpassed soon and we expect our target of 1.3000 to be reached today. The pair is likely to pause or bounce higher near this strong psychological support but the bullish side is clearly very weak now and the possibility of extended moves north is slim. First resistance may be provided by the zone around 1.3120.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will be affected today by the technical side and by the U.S. events as the United Kingdom did not schedule major economic releases.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: WITNESSING HISTORY: POUND BELOW 1.2800

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair broke the bullish trend line ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and once those were released, price moved up to test the recently broken 1.1100. Most of the dollar weakness was generated by the fear that Brexit turbulences may hinder future economic growth.

Technical Outlook

The pair is currently testing 1.1100 resistance after showing rejection near 1.1025 but even if resistance is broken, we don’t expect a strong move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The overall bias is bearish considering the geopolitical situation, so we expect a break of 1.1025 minor support and a move towards 1.0960. As an alternate scenario, a break of the 50 period EMA will likely take price above 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look into American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report is not as important as the Government released data that comes out a day after but still, higher numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the US Dollar. The forecast for today’s release is a change of 158K compared to the previous 173K.


GBP/USD

The Pound is still struggling to find support but failed to do so yesterday and the waterfall continued, with a new low being created at 1.2796.

Technical Outlook

We’ve seen another huge drop and a new low created at 1.2796 but signs of rejection have appeared. The massive drop calls for a bullish retracement and both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are oversold, favouring a move up. This being said, the overall bias is clearly bearish and all moves north should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total output generated by the manufacturing sector. The expected change is -1.2% compared to the previous 2.3% and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound but under present conditions, we don’t expect a strong impact.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: ENDING A WILD WEEK WITH A BANG: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The jobs data released yesterday by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) showed slight improvement compared to previous readings but the event did not have a major impact and the pair ranged for most of the day.

Technical Outlook

It looks like price found strong resistance at 1.1100 so now we expect it to star moving lower, towards 1.1025. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also above price, angled downwards and this increases the chances of extended moves south but a lot will depend on the American jobs data that’s about to be released.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Non-Farm Payrolls report is released, showing the change in the number of employed people in the U.S.. This is widely regarded as the most important indicator for the jobs market in the U.S and higher numbers show increased economic activity and suggest that consumer spending will pick up in the near future. The expected number is 174K, a huge increase from last month’s 38K and anything close or above this value will likely strengthen the US Dollar. Volatility usually increases and caution is always advised.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday, which was expected after another massive drop. The greenback wasn’t affected a lot by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and overall price action was slow compared to the previous days.

Technical Outlook

The current climb may extend into the zone around 1.3100 but once and if that happens, we expect the bears to step in and take back control. It’s also possible to see a drop even before 1.3100 is reached but either way, the first bearish target is represented by the 1.2800 zone. A break of the historical low created at 1.2796 will probably trigger an extended move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair’s direction will be heavily influenced by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls but on the Pound side there are no major announcements.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: MARKET IN A RANGE AS INDECISION DRIVES SHORT-TERM PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. employment showed great improvement as seen from Friday’s NFP that posted a number of 287K, compared to the forecast 175K. However, most of the new jobs were created in the lowest paying sectors and this triggered a whipsaw that took price higher.

Technical Outlook

Price jumped up and down at the time of the NFP release but still remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. There is a great degree of indecision as shown by the long wicks of the NFP candle, so we expect the pair to remain between the 50 EMA and 1.1025 for most of today’s trading session. As an alternate scenario, a break of either one of these technical levels will likely trigger an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings are today’s only notable event but these are closed to the press and a formal statement will be released once they have completed. Sometimes, participants talk to press representatives during the day and usually that is a reason for volatility but unless important matters are discussed, we don’t expect strong movement.


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow session Friday compared to the previous days and at the NFP release it behaved erratically, jumping up and down.

Technical Outlook

The pair is capped to the upside by 1.3050 and to the downside by 1.2880; these are minor levels of resistance and support and we expect price to remain between them for the most part of today’s trading session. A bullish break of 1.3050 will open the door for 1.3119 and if 1.2880 is surpassed, we expect 1.2796 to be hit. This being said, we don’t believe that price will surpass the outside levels (1.3119 or 1.2796) during today’s trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events on today’s calendar so we expect price action to be influenced mainly by the technical aspect.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: POUND STILL IN THE FOCUS AS BOE GOVERNOR CARNEY TESTIFIES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The economic calendar was light yesterday and the Eurogroup Meetings didn’t bring any major news developments so overall the trading session was slow and ranging.

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced close to 1.1025 but the bulls didn’t manage to take price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This shows that the market is still ruled by indecision and makes our bias neutral until either 1.1025 support or the 50 period EMA is broken. Once this happens, we expect the market to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day from a fundamental standpoint as no major indicators are released. Price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Price remained in a relatively tight range yesterday and didn’t move past support or resistance. This was mostly due to a lacklustre fundamental scene.

Technical Outlook

Today we anticipate a break of the channel created between 1.3050 resistance and 1.2880 support but the direction is difficult to predict, given the sideways movement seen lately. Of course the big picture is still very bearish but this doesn’t exclude some bullish movement which can find resistance at the confluence zone created by 1.3120 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a break of 1.2880 will probably trigger a move below 1.2796, thus creating a new low.

Fundamental Outlook

An important event can strongly influence the Pound today: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today at 9:00 am GMT before the Treasury Select Committee. The main topic will be the Bank of England Financial Stability Report and erratic movement is a distinct possibility during the testimony, so caution is advised.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: TIMID BULLISH RETRACEMENTS AHEAD OF KEY BOE RATE DECISION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved above the 1.1100 barrier yesterday but the climb couldn’t be sustained and price did not continue on an upward path. The economic calendar was light, contributing to the overall lack of determination.

Technical Outlook

The move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1100 did not trigger an extended climb and the pair is already showing signs of rejection. This makes us believe that if price moves back below the 50 EMA and closes a candle without long lower wicks, then it will continue until 1.1025 is reached. As an alternate scenario, if the pair remains above the 50 EMA, we expect it to head into 1.1150 and possibly 1.1186.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another slow day ahead, without any major economic releases on the calendar. Price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney mentioned during yesterday’s testimony that “the exchange rate move can help with that adjustment […]” referring to the post-Brexit conditions. This gave the Pound a push and sent the pair above immediate resistance.

Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3119 resistance but overall the picture is still very bearish and the oscillators are approaching overbought. While an extended move to the upside is not impossible, the more price climbs, the probability of a drop increases and we expect the pair to start moving south again soon. The first barrier and potential turning point is represented by 1.3227 but keep in mind that Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate so it’s very possible to see slow price action until then.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound is not affected today by major economic releases, thus direction will be determined by the technical side.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BOE EXPECTED TO CUT RATE TO COPE WITH BREXIT AFTERMATH

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair didn’t show clear direction yesterday and it seems like the majority of investors are waiting for the economic events released later in the week before choosing a side.

Technical Outlook

Price is currently trading above the 50 period Exponential moving Average and above 1.1100 but lacks a clear bias and all moves are quickly reversed. This type of behaviour will probably end with a breakout followed by an extended move in that direction but so far the market is in indecision mode and the next direction is difficult to predict. The levels to watch are 1.1025 as support and 1.1150 as resistance but keep an eye on the economic releases because those may have a strong impact.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Producer Price Index comes out and is expected to show a 0.3% change from the previous 0.4%. This indicator tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services and can have inflationary implications because a higher producer price usually leads to a higher price paid by consumers. Figures above expectations for this indicator trigger US Dollar strength but this is just the rule of thumb and the impact of each release may differ.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved sideways after an initial bullish impulse and remained above the Moving Average. However, movement was sluggish and a big part in this was played by the fact that market participants are waiting for BOE’s rate decision and are afraid to choose a direction.

Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the level at 1.3227 but it seems like the bullish move is close to being exhausted so we expect a drop below the mentioned technical levels. Considering today’s huge announcement, the technical aspect is secondary, volatility may increase and price may move erratically. Extreme caution is advised!

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to cut rates from 0.50% to 0.25%. If this comes true, the Pound is likely to drop further but of course, this is not a certainty and the pair may react differently than expected, depending on how market participants will interpret BOE’s decision. The event is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT and is accompanied by a breakdown of the members’ votes as well as a Monetary Policy Summary, which will contain details of the reasons that determined the rate decision.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BOE MAINTAINS RATE UNCHANGED, POUND CLIMBS SIGNIFICANTLY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair climbed yesterday ahead of the U.S. Producer Price Index but the better than expected value of the indicator brought back some of the US Dollar’s strength and most of the gains were erased.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1150 was breached yesterday but price soon bounced lower, so this level is still valid. If early in today’s session the pair descends below 1.1100 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect more bears to step in and take price close to 1.1025 support. On the other hand, a clear break of 1.1150 will open the door for a move into 1.1240.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a busy day for the US Dollar that starts with the CORE version of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the price that consumers pay for the products they purchase and this version excludes food and energy from calculation. The expected change is 0.2%, same as last month, and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback.

At the same time (12:30 pm GMT) the US Retail Sales are released, expected to show a 0.1% change from the previous 0.5%. Since sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the entire consumer spending, higher numbers also strengthen the US Dollar.

The last event of the day is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 93.7, almost the same as the previous 93.5. Consumer sentiment is indicative of future consumer spending, thus higher numbers show optimism and strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to maintain the rate at 0.50% and this strengthened the Pound during yesterday’s trading session, making it reach resistance.

Technical Outlook

The key levels for short term price action are 1.3119 (1.3120) as support and 1.3483 as resistance; a break of either one may trigger an extended move in that direction. BOE’s decision to maintain rates unchanged will probably extend its effects during today’s trading session so we expect price to climb above resistance but keep in mind that the US Dollar will also be affected by a lot of indicators today.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England governor Mark Carney will speak today in Toronto about the financial climate and this appearance may trigger increased volatility on Pound pairs, especially if he will drop hints about the next rate change. The event is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and caution is advised.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED AS BEARS RE-ENTER THE MARKET

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Retail Sales released Friday showed a positive change of 0.6% while the forecast was just 0.1% and this brought strength to the greenback, taking the pair into support.

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced once more at 1.1150 resistance and is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; also the oscillators are headed downwards but not oversold and all these signs point towards a break of 1.1025 support zone. If this happens today, we expect the pair to move into 1.0960 zone and as an alternate scenario, a bounce higher will probably find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a lacklustre fundamental environment today as no major announcements are scheduled. Price action might be slow and ranging as a result.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears managed to take price below support, mostly on the back of better than expected U.S. data. This erased all the gains made by the Pound Thursday when the BOE decided to keep the rate at 0.50%.

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.3227 but has bounced at 1.3119 support. Today we expect a re-test of this support and the way price behaves there will probably decide the direction for the day: a break will probably take price into the zone around 1.3050, while a bounce and a move above the 50 EMA will open the door for another re-test of 1.3483 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound is not affected today by any major economic releases, thus price direction will be likely determined by the technical aspect.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ZEW, BRITISH INFLATION DATA TO TRIGGER LARGER SWINGS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was incredibly slow and mostly sideways. This was mostly due to the lack of major economic releases.

Technical Outlook

The movement seen yesterday doesn’t reveal a lot of clues about future direction but the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this tilts the balance slightly towards the short side. A break of 1.1025 will likely trigger a move into 1.0960, while a move above the 50 EMA and above 1.1100 resistance will probably take the pair into 1.1150 again.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a busier day than yesterday, starting with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey of about 275 German professional analysts and investors that tries to gauge their assessment of a 6-month economic outlook. The expected figure is 8.2 (previous 19.2) and higher numbers suggest optimism, usually strengthening the Euro.

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits are released, and expected to show a figure of 1.15M (previous 1.14M). These are annualized numbers and better values can strengthen the US Dollar because the construction sector is an important part of the U.S. economy.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a slow day, without major new developments and the pair lingered close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the most part of the day.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading closely above the 50 period EMA but movement is slow and without a clear bias. The latest strong impulse is bearish and we expect it to continue until 1.3119 is tested again but this will depend a lot on today’s economic indicators. If the Pound strengthens, we don’t expect the resistance at 1.3483 to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data is released today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A small increase to 0.4% from the previous 0.3% is expected and because inflation is currently considered too low, higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Pound. As always, the U.S. indicators will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GATHERS MOMENTUM, THREATENS SUPPORT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Building Permits numbers matched analysts’ expectations but the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey disappointed by showing a -6.8 reading (anticipated 8.2). This weakened the Euro and took the pair lower.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched yesterday but the bulls lacked the strength to break it and the pair soon dropped below 1.1025 support. The break is not a clear one and so far both sides lack the conviction necessary for a strong breakout. If today the pair remains below 1.1025, we expect the bears to make a run for 1.0960, otherwise the 50 EMA is the first bullish target.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major economic indicators for the US Dollar and Euro so we expect the technical side to be the main market mover. We may see a slow day based on the lack of news releases.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s action was slow but the pair moved lower for the most part of the day. The British CPI showed improvement but not enough to trigger Pound strength.

Technical Outlook

The pair reached the zone around 1.3120 and is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a clear breakout did not occur. Once price moves below 1.3120 and re-tests it from below, then we can consider this level resistance and we expect a drop into 1.2880 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:30 am GMT we take a look into the British unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change. This indicator shows changes in the number of individuals that asked for social help due to their unemployed status and usually a higher reading is indicative of decreased economic activity, weakening the Pound. For today’s release the expected figure is 4.1K (previous -0.4K)

GDMFX

今晚欧央行恐无新意，黄金已入底部回升

>>一、日内基本面分析

       IMF首席经济学家奥伯斯法尔德昨日表示英国公投脱欧给世界经济造成风险叠加，英国脱欧可能会导致金融机构撤离伦敦。欧盟委员会也发布英国退欧对欧盟影响的初步评估，前景主要受到英国不确定性的影响，英国公投结果增加了欧盟经济前景面临的风险。英国脱欧预计拖累明年欧元区GDP增速0.25-0.5个百分点，英国脱欧预计拖累英国明年GDP增速1-2.75个百分点。此外，“美联储通讯社”John Hilsenrath：若经济数据较好，美联储可能在9月再次加息；鉴于英国公投后金融市场企稳且美国经济增长显示出提速的信号，美联储官员似乎对年底前加息更有信心。上述消息整体上对美元构成支持，美元昨日强势拉升，非美货币全下下跌，不过黄金价格小幅拉升。

      近日美元的强势上涨压倒一片大众商品以及非美货币，自美国公布6月非农数据强劲之后，美国的经济数据包括美国零售销售、CPI，新屋销售数据等重磅数据都表现较好，支撑美元指数强势上涨突破97关口。据彭博，利率期货合约显示，美联储12月加息的概率自上月底的9%大幅攀升至42.6%。这对其他非美货币和大宗商品造成打压。黄金昨日在跌破整理区间后开启暴跌模式，昨日最低下探至1312.6，最高1338.4，盘中波动26美金，日线收报1315.9，跌幅达1.21%。日内关注北京时间19:45，欧洲央行将公布利率决议。随后的20:30，德拉基将召开新闻发布会。欧洲央行可能不会在此次会议上下调利率，但不排除会进一步放出鸽派信息。一旦有进一步宽松动作那么美元或继续上涨，黄金将被继续打压。此外，美盘关注美国上周季调后初请失业金人数以及6月NAR季调后成屋销售，美元是否会回调还看美国经济数据公布的情况。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

日元投机净多头减少25%至47545份，其中空头大举加仓1.43万份
上周刚转为投机净多头的澳元净多头迅速回升至16216份
黄金净多头自历史高位回落了6%至297463份

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：黄金日线来看，昨日大阴收尾，在经历前段时间的窄幅震荡走势之后，这根阴柱也算是拉开了近段时间震荡的区间，日线上方布林带上轨开始加速向下运行，5日均线和10日均线还是死叉看跌形态，今天早间开盘走跌的走势直接运行在了30日均线下方，整体来看，黄金第三波跌势还没有走完，阴柱已经打开下跌力度，而运行在30日均线下方，形成连续看跌走势，这两天黄金的行情肯定要去布林带下轨走一圈，下轨支撑1301。4小时盘面来看，昨天回落走势，力度逐渐加强，连跌阴柱逐渐放大，在第一次触及1313的时候走出反弹走势，反弹收阳走势力度刚好，不破1320关键压制，再次走低，形成完美的下跌回落调整走势。布林带随着下跌走势逐渐开口，短周期的均线逐渐形成，短期还有下跌的空间。操作上建议短期可以逢低吸入！

XAGUSD:白银昨日继续下行，最低至19.30区域，跌破19.60支撑，日线以中阴线收盘；白银盘面很简单，继续延续空头走势，接下来将向下试探19.10/19.0区域，这里或许会有反弹，如跌破将运行至18.50/60区域以及18.0整数关口！同样上方的话，我们需要关注19.60压力位，今日的重点，要跌依然不能反弹太多，反弹太多将会改变强空头的走势格局！所以，操作上今日建议反弹19.40附近以及上方直接做空损19.65即可，目标19.10~18.70！首次触及19.0区域可做短线反弹多单。

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种               方  向       入场区域        支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空          1.1060          1.0920          1.1090
GBPUSD              空          1.3260          1.3000          1.3310
AUDUSD              空          0.7500          0.7320          0.7530  
USDJPY               空          107.50          105.60          108.00
XAUUSD              多          1308.0          1302.0          1325.0
XAGUSD              多          19.00           18.70            20.30
Crude-Oil            空          46.50           44.50            47.00  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期       时间          事件                                           重要性        前值        市场预测
07/21     19:45     欧元区7月央行利率决议                   高           0.00%          0.00%
07/21     20:30    美国7月费城联储制造业指数             中           4.7             4.5  
07/21     20:30    美国上周续请失业金人数                  中            214.9万        214万  
07/21     20:30    美国上周初请失业金人数                  中           25.4万         26.5万

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EURO WEAKENS, POUND STILL IN RANGE MODE AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Central Bank kept the rate unchanged, as it was expected and Mario Draghi’s press conference created a whipsaw where price moved higher just to reverse almost immediately.

Technical Outlook

Movement during yesterday’s press conference was pretty strong but lacked clear direction and now we can see rejection off of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Price returned below 1.1025 and is now headed for the low at 1.0980 but considering the choppy movement seen lately, we expect it to bounce higher once this lower target is reached. As long as the pair remains below the 50 period EMA, our bias is bearish, anticipating a touch of 1.0960 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Manufacturing PMI is released today at 7:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 53.6 (previous 54.5). This is a medium impact indicator that usually doesn’t create strong movement but under normal circumstances, a higher reading than the forecast strengthens the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound was hit yesterday by a -0.9% change for the Retail Sales and the pair dropped for about 100 pips as a result; however, some of the losses were erased later in the session and overall the pair had mixed movement.

Technical Outlook

Price is ranging between 1.3227 and 1.3119 or briefly exits the channel and then returns inside. This type of movement usually predicts that a strong breakout will occur but the direction is hard to anticipate. Until one of the mentioned levels is broken and then re-tested, we have a neutral bias on the pair and we turn our attention towards the economic releases because these will probably decide direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing and Services PMIs are released, attempting to gauge the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors regarding economic health post Brexit referendum. The expected figure for the Manufacturing PMI is 47.8 (previous 52.1) while for the Services sector the forecast is 48.9 (previous 52.3). Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.