【VITROX 0097 交流专区】伟特机构

股友

原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 12-2-2008 08:24 AM 发表
＂我和你說一句，你有沒有想過，能把公司推上市的都是爛公司。因為一下把公司賣了就袋袋平安囉。因為我是老闆，公司很賺錢，我跟本不會想和人分享。＂

我不是很认同你这句话，但我想知道这是以你的逻辑来推论得出 ...

没有错啊。股票市场只有两次赚钱的机会：１。老板把公司推上市筹资的时候，看knm和LCL等老板们的身家。２。上市公司私有化的时候出高价和你买回，例maxis，malakof，petaling garden等。其他时间是在赚牛毛和散仔们自相惨杀。

tan81

Vitrox 在2005年的旧新闻

Corporate: Vitrox chips away at competition
A common but expensive problem that crops up in the production process, especially in the semiconductor industry, is the occurrence of damaged or malformed components or chips. Quality control by conventional manual inspection can only be conducted once the components arrive at the end of the production process. By then, the damage may be irreparable, thus resulting in loss of valuable production time and cost.
The earliest technologies that were introduced in the country to detect such deformities were essentially imported, and the companies that benefited most were multinational corporations (MNCs) based abroad. Even now, there are only two prominent players in the world for such machine vision inspection equipment, namely ICOS Vision System Corp (Belgium) and Cognex Corp (the US). Sensing the vast potential that the field presented, Chu Jenn Weng and Steven Siaw sought to develop similar technologies here.
Combining industry experience of about 30 years, the two founded Vitrox Technologies Sdn Bhd in Penang, and began offering a wide range of machine vision solution systems. Since 2000, they have designed and developed automated machine vision systems specifically for inspection work at the end of the line production process of the semiconductor industry.
"The market for such machine vision systems was dominated by the larger MNCs and we realised that we had the technical knowledge and ability to develop these systems ourselves," says Chu, who is executive chairman and managing director of Vitrox.
The company became Vitrox Corp Bhd in June 2004 with a view of listing on the Mesdaq Market. The group is primarily focused on providing competitive automated machine vision inspection systems for product and process quality controls to semiconductor manufacturers, systems integrators and original equipment manufacturers.
Chu says Vitrox has successfully secured clients, foreign and domestic, through its ability to customise solutions to meet the specific needs of the customers.
"For example, we provide value-added service for our customers in China by incorporating simplified instructions in Mandarin for the solutions that we supply them. Our true strength lies not only in the quality of the products we supply but also in the manner we adhere to the requirements of the end user," he adds.
China and Taiwan together represent Vitrox's largest overseas market, says Chu, adding that foreign income accounts for about a third of the company's revenue. But Vitrox is working on reaching beyond these countries and expanding into North Asia and Europe, he explains.
"Of course, we need to develop more complex systems to reach the different markets because the equipment required there needs to be far more sophisticated. Our biggest competitors come from abroad and to compete on their turf, we need to be better equipped."
Vitrox has garnered a number of awards in the short span it has been in the business. Among the notable ones are the Best of Industrial Application Award and the Prime Minister's Best of the Best Award (Overall Winner) presented by Multimedia Development Corp under the MSC-Asia Pacific ICT Awards 2004. The group also took the SMI Best Overall Award 2004 by the Small and Medium Industries Association of Malaysia.
Its award winning 3D Lead Vision Inspection System is a product that allows for the inspection of high-speed machines for lead deformation in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Vitrox uses a five-view optical module developed in-house, which produces enhanced performance over the current industrial standard of three to four views.
Siaw, who is the executive and operations director of Vitrox, says the company uses the awards as its marketing tool and to motivate its team of 50 employees.
"The listing exercise will allow the business to grow more aggressively and help the group attract suitably qualified locals to join us where they can excel," he adds. "The company will continuously deploy better products with modern technology and also expand its reach to industries other than semiconductors."
Vitrox's earnings have been on the rise since its inception. The company's start-up cost was RM500,000, while retained capital as at end-2004 was RM12 million. For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2004, the company made a net profit of RM5.23 million, up 60.9% from the RM3.25 million recorded the previous year. Revenue rose to RM13.65 million from RM6.57 million previously. In 2001 and 2002, net profit was RM297,000 and RM1.21 million respectively.
Vitrox will be launching its prospectus on Aug 16, and is targeting listing on the Mesdaq Market by the middle of September. It will be issuing 17.6 million new ordinary shares of 10 sen each at an indicative price of 68 sen each. Of the total, three million shares are for the public, while the rest is for employees and private placements. The company is aiming to raise RM10.5 million from the listing exercise.
A substantial portion of the RM10.5 million will be channelled into research and development and market expansion, while the remainder will be utilised to repay some borrowings, says Chu.

tan81

1 Oct 2007: Small-Cap-Corner: ViTrox: Making more from seeing better

The three founders of ViTrox, Chu Jenn Weng, Siaw Kok Tong and Yeoh Shih Hoong, collectively own 71.4% of the Penang-based company. Both Chu and Siaw were former employees of Hewlett Packard, and bravely went where no Malaysian had gone before. They set up ViTrox Technologies Sdn Bhd in 2000, with the objective of becoming a world leading vision inspection company. Indeed, Malaysia needs more people like these, who can compete with the best in the world and create high-end jobs for subcontractors in the IT, automation and machining industries.
ViTrox's core product, vision systems, accounted for 80% of its sales in 1HFY2007. Vision systems are high precision computer systems that use visual imaging and artificial intelligence to quickly check integrated circuits (chips) for finishing defects. In spite of the semiconductor industry slowing down in 1HFY2007, ViTrox recorded a 36% growth in revenue from 1HFY2006 due to strong demand from end users. Its vision system solutions are widely used by customers in the US, Mexico, Europe, China, Taiwan, South Korea, India, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia.
In the international arena, ViTrox's vision systems are more cost-competitive than those offered by competitors, namely ICOS Vision System (Belgium) and Cognex Corp (US). Based on the strong earnings growth of both these companies, which indicates the good prospects of the vision systems market, ViTrox expects continuous demand for its product going into the second half of the current year. According to the Automated Imaging Association, the global vision systems industry will be worth US$10 billion (about RM34.2 billion) by 2008. This represents a CAGR of 8.8% per annum from 2003 to 2008.
Among ViTrox's new products is its automated optical inspection (AOI) machine. Unlike vision systems, which check integrated circuits, the AOI machine uses a camera to scan larger areas on a printed circuit board (PCB) and flexible PCBs for manufacturing defects. The miniaturisation of PCBs has been driving up the demand for AOI as a quick and accurate solution to verify the quality of a PCB. ViTrox has started producing AOI machines for its customers in China, Taiwan and South Korea. The selling price of a medium-end AOI machine ranges from US$100,000 to US$200,000.
Yet another of its products involves the design and development of an electronic communication system. This is a standard intelligent electronic interface card that uses system-on- chip technology for cost-effective and high-speed communication for the equipment automation and designing community. ViTrox expects this new business unit to boost its revenue in 2007 and 2008 from the RM3 million posted last year.

Comment
Dr Strange was one of my favourite characters in Marvel Comics. His all-seeing eye of Agamotto could see through any lie, deception or illusion and free those trapped in their own illusions. He would have certainly made a great analyst.
Like Dr Strange, ViTrox specialises in seeing what the naked eye cannot and is being handsomely rewarded for it. To identify small defects quickly and accurately is an art, and science, not many can master. In fact, ViTrox only has a handful of competitors (mainly US-listed Israeli and European companies) in the field. Hence, net margins are high at around 30% to 40%. These are expected to be sustained due to the technological barriers to entry and oligopolistic nature of the industry. ViTrox spends around 5% of its revenue on R&D. Other than its technical expertise, ViTrox enjoys a low-cost base, tax incentives and close proximity to customers in Asia.
With such margins, it aims to boost unit sales to drive profits, which it has successfully achieved by boosting marketing expenses, participating in more trade fairs and motivating key staff by offering stock grants as part of its total compensation plan. The rise in operating expenses from these efforts is more than compensated for by much higher sales.
A potentially high growth area for ViTrox in 2008 is the AOI business. With global demand for AOI machines expected to rise from 600 units per annum in 2007 to 1,000 in 2010, or growth of 66%, the company is well placed to capitalise on this window of opportunity. Assuming that it succeeds in capturing some 3% of global demand in 2008, it could potentially generate RM11 million in revenue. The AOI business is also an oligopolistic industry, with only a few other competitors, such as Orbotech and Camtek, both of the US.
ViTrox's strong technical team, its growing market share, better pricing and improving quality imply that it should be able to maintain its strong sales momentum. Indeed, its steady performance over the past few quarters despite sluggish market conditions is testament to the resilience of ViTrox's business model.

Valuation
Notwithstanding the sharp decline in its share price recently (from a peak of RM1.28 on Jan 15, 2007), the company's commendable second-quarter results, an extension of its strong performance over the last three years, indicate that the company's fundamentals remain intact. Going forward, its shares are likely to reflect its improving fundamentals. At 73 sen, the shares are trading at a FY2007F PER of 9.1 times, based on an EPS of eight sen (based on consensus earnings). Its global peers, namely Cognex (33.5 times), Icos (38.5 times) and Orbotech (30.8 times) are trading at a much higher FY2007 PER.
The company has net cash of RM10.4 million due to strong cash flow from its business. If this is deducted from ViTrox's market capitalisation, its shares are only trading at a FY2007F PER of 8.5 times. Imputing a PER of 13 times (less than half the ratings for its international peers) its CY2007F earnings and adding back cash per share of 6.6 sen, its valuation is around RM1.08, which means a potential upside of 48%.
Sales of its core product, vision systems, are growing at 30% per annum but a potential surge in earnings, should the AOI business take off, may not have been factored into its valuation. For greater clarity, we need Dr Strange's all-seeing eye of Agamotto.

tan81

重点是这两段：

Among ViTrox's new products is its automated optical inspection (AOI) machine. Unlike vision systems, which check integrated circuits, the AOI machine uses a camera to scan larger areas on a printed circuit board (PCB) and flexible PCBs for manufacturing defects. The miniaturisation of PCBs has been driving up the demand for AOI as a quick and accurate solution to verify the quality of a PCB. ViTrox has started producing AOI machines for its customers in China, Taiwan and South Korea. The selling price of a medium-end AOI machine ranges from US$100,000 to US$200,000.

A potentially high growth area for ViTrox in 2008 is the AOI business. With global demand for AOI machines expected to rise from 600 units per annum in 2007 to 1,000 in 2010, or growth of 66%, the company is well placed to capitalise on this window of opportunity. Assuming that it succeeds in capturing some 3% of global demand in 2008, it could potentially generate RM11 million in revenue. The AOI business is also an oligopolistic industry, with only a few other competitors, such as Orbotech and Camtek, both of the US.

8years

看了大家那么多的资料，我觉得有好有坏。我认为应该看看aoi的推出时对公司的盈利有多少推高才可以决定要不要买。

其实目前我对各种资料的显示认为并不值得买进，但是竟然aoi有可能改变公司的命运，那么就必需再等待看看。我非常在意单一顾客的危险。

虽然看起来管理层好像还可以信赖，不过由于公司才上市，没有经过时间的磨练，我们很难了解公司的好坏。所以等待aoi时间将会过的同时，我们就可以了解更多东西。

tan81

谢谢你的时间。

目前 Vitrox 的 Revenue 在 30M左右，80% 来自于SRM的生意。
管理层对于AOI的建议售价为RM500K-RM600K。市面上的高品质AOI售价是RM1M。
如果2010年，AOI的销售量为1000台，Vitrox 的C预测可以得到10% 的份额。
那就是100XRM500K=RM50M 的业绩，不包括SRM的生意（也许那时也不重要了）。

保守估计，如果AOI的市场没有成长，2010 年还是600台 （07年的销售量 ），那就是60XRM500=RM30M的业绩。

8年兄看的没有错。AOI是改变公司命运的关键。
目前，可以等待AOI的销量，是否可以达标。

Mr.Business

就象各位网友讲的，单一大客户就占了Vitrox的70%营业额，这是不能接受的：
1. SRM清楚Vitrox对她的依赖性，如果SRM要欺压Vitrox，Vitrox会是下方；
2. 就算你不在乎这一点，其他投资者会在乎，所以给Vitrox的估价就不高。

顺便谈谈AOI，我从前在PCBA的subcon做过，subcon通常是用人手(印尼外劳),circuit testing和functional testing来抓PCBA的缺陷，而我刚巧也看过推销员来推销AOI。。

1. 一片PCBA有上百的零件和IC，AOI能抓多少呢？所以可能用AOI来抓主要IC，之后一样要用人手,circuit testing和functional testing来检查PCBA，这样AOI不是很多余？

2. AOI是用标准的照片作为标本，来抓PCBA的缺陷，之后也得让人来肯定是不是真的defeat，可是SMT machine通常不能确保所有的soldering都很完美，可是不完美不代表是QC reject，AOI是死的，所以分辨不出，所以可能QC通过的soldering，对于AOI却是reject。
结论：AOI对于厂家并不是必需的，所以不好对AOI有太大期望。

tan81

非常重要的资料和专业的看法。
谢谢你。

看来，可以尝试问他们的管理层，如何看待和解释这些问题。

piao2

呵呵，内行人点出的果然是一针见血。

Mr.Business

原帖由 tan81 于 12-2-2008 11:17 AM 发表
A potentially high growth area for ViTrox in 2008 is the AOI business.With global demand for AOI machines expected to rise from 600 units perannum in 2007 to 1,000 in 2010, or growth of 66%, the company is wellplaced to capitalise on this window of opportunity. Assuming that itsucceeds in capturing some 3% of global demand in 2008, it couldpotentially generate RM11 million in revenue. The AOI business is alsoan oligopolistic industry, with only a few other competitors, such asOrbotech and Camtek, both of the US.

2007年global demand for AOI machines才只有600台：

1. AOI很贵，而且寿命应该很久，一间工厂应该不会每年都买一两台吧？

2. 工厂要买AOI，一定会考虑warranty和service，不是说机器便宜就可以了，这方面ViTrox能赢过国际大厂？而且已经买进AOI的工厂，要再买进，应该会考虑原来供应商。

结论：
AOI的市场需求不大，竞争强，ViTrox很难抢过原来竞争者的客户，要在世界各地建立warranty和service center又要花大量资金。。。这AOI的生意似乎不是很好做。不是说ViTrox不会成功。可是我们身为小投资者需要跟公司一起冒险吗？ViTrox现在的valuation不是没有道理的。。。既然AOI的对ViTrox的将来很重要，那如果你要投资ViTrox，你就需要确保ViTrox的AOI能在竞争中胜利。

PS：还要研究semicondutor industry和PCBA industry。。。

tan81

谢谢你的观点。了解问题所在了。
如果还有看法，请继续提出。

invest_klse

小弟再次路过。。。。

tan81兄，以下是我针对 vitrox 的 AOI  前景的一些意见。

根据你在#104楼的资料：
“the AOI machine uses a camera to scan larger areas on a printed circuit board (PCB) and flexible PCBs for manufacturing defects.”

我觉得，这个AOI machine 的未来发展重点应该是 software 部分。
一个机器有多强的“侦测defect”能力，主要还是看software的强弱。
因为，在照相技术、硬件零件方面，各竞争者之间应该没有设么大差别，vitrox 的优势只有价格。
只有强大的软件发展能力，才能确保 vitrox 未来的竞争力。


而根据你在 #78楼的资料：“Vitrox 是负责软件和完成组装，所有零件生产都是外判工作（Outsource）。”
Vitrox 在发展 AOI 的软件时，是靠自己的。这么一来你就必须考虑：vitrox 的员工，在软件的R&D上有没有长久竞争力？（据我所知，imaging software 并不是那么简单的。）

我觉得：软件 R&D 没有竞争力的公司，很难长久发展 AOI。你觉得呢？


P/S：先声明，我对于AOI 其实没有什么概念，所有的知识都是从你的资料中了解来的。若有什么错误，请指正。

[ 本帖最后由 invest_klse 于 12-2-2008 10:11 PM 编辑 ]

guomiao88

vitrox 的产品主销是corporate client.
在这高呼的economic recession,
是不是还有厂有花大钱在capex...呢？来expand呢。。。
这也值得探讨。。。

tan81

软件 R&D 没有竞争力的公司，很难长久发展 AOI。

这点看法，非常正确。有些问题，现在是没有答案，因为Vitrox 只是研发成功，还没销售成功。

从新补充一些资料，Vitrox 有 120名员工左右。70% 是在 R&D部门工作。华人员工超过100位。由此看出，Vitrox 的方向是高技术的产品。

C的确有说过，Software 和组装是由Vitrox 负责。其它是Outsourcing。机器也许不是重点。Software的Program 和Imaging 的技术高，才能克服Mr。Business所提的人工　ＶＳ　ＡＯＩ　的比较。

不过，现在还是没有答案。必须从市场销售来看Ｖｉｔｒｏｘ　的ＡＯＩ是否有持久竞争力。

tan81

这个问题，应该比较小。
２００７年，ＡＯＩ的全年销售量只是６００台。会买的，是特定厂家。
对许多小厂家，这不是必需品。但对于高规格和产量非常庞大的厂家，他们还是会把这些经费列为必须开支。
问题是，Ｖｉｔｒｏｘ凭着低价这点，可以说服不在乎资金的大厂家吗？
欢迎大家继续讨论。

我会收集意见，然后向管理层发问。然后回上载给大家分享。

stereo

我想Ｖｉｔｒｏｘ很难说服不在乎资金的大厂家，既然不是必需品，大厂家会比较在乎ＡＯＩ的效果吧！如果技术上能够和其他厂商媲美，就

8years

忘记了感谢tan81不辞劳苦的为大家访问了vitrox的管理层，也为大家带回来了宝贵的资料。这些才是真正投资者应该做的事。tan81的专业精神非常令我佩服，所以特意感谢tan81的劳苦的付出。

事实上，真正有做功课的人是很难亏钱的。如果当年megan有人也不辞劳苦的为大家访问杨天才，我们那里会那么容易相信megan的财报呢？？

我必需再次鼓励tan81的勤劳的精神，我相信这是成功的投资之道，你的付出，我们都看到了。

感谢感谢。下次如果有发现什么好股时也需要请你走一趟。
不过这次忘记了一件很重要的事，下次希望可以补上。那就是我们也必需访问在哪儿的员工的意见。可以借吃饭时间和员工交谈。这也是很重要的因素，而且可信度非常高。最后，我也感谢vitrox管理层的诚实的态度。

pya_ch

谁要到东和帮我走一趟

tan81

由于车子坏了，并没有早到，所以错失了和员工接触的机会。不过，朋友正和我安排中。
有机会和Guard 聊了15分钟。8年兄讲的对。就是因为他，才知道 C的太太就是HR Manager。也因此而知道员工的人数和比例，因为 Guard House 有打卡记录。也对几个老板有个大概的印象。员工的角度是和股东不一样的。

这次是第一次到访上市公司。正如我说的，自己才学习价值投资几个月而已。
不过，真的学到很多。谁有兴趣的，应该尽量去安排和体验。
当天的管理层也有邀我们去吃饭，不过我们没有答应而已。重点是看公司。

谢谢8年兄的肯定。

8years

吃饭是应该的，接触一个人越久才能了解一个人越深。每一句话都可以判断一个人。多言必失，假话会有漏洞的地方，多听才能知。