本地化语言，随便谈谈

macgyver_168

当初我看到全世界走向这个方向时（几乎现在所有的政策，都是往这个方向去），我根本没想到 Rothschilds 还是什么的，只是觉得很多事情，很不透明化。为何市场很多专家说金融问题其实是 5兆或更多，但美国政府竟然笨到要用 7000亿去救市场？

7千亿，8千多亿，这只是个数字，还可加注，大大的数字，
目的是要稳住人心。
佳丽的什麽贴看过，忘了。

macgyver_168

外汇？

全世界印钞票，全世界的货币不是都贬值吗？

要保值，黄金，地产？

Mr.Business

原帖由 过路客 于 18-10-2008 10:13 AM 发表
再来，当本地股市在周五终于“奇怪地”同步下跌，每个人都提出各种看法，连政治也扯进去。arroyo 向世界银行借钱的消息，没关系吗？arroyo已经承认了亚洲、东南亚国家的困境，各国开始竞相向世界银行借钱。世界银行说“精神上支持”，arroyo 却自行宣布已经得到贷款。后面出了什么问题？

过路客不提我还没留意到这新闻。。。


Cabinet man downplays Arroyo gaffe
By TJ Burgonio
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:55:00 10/18/2008

MANILA, Philippines—They all looked alike.

A Cabinet official on Friday made light of President Macapagal-Arroyo’s gaffe over a $10-billion bailout for Southeast Asia and balked at the idea of a public apology, claiming it was just a visual mix-up.

The President said Wednesday the World Bank had committed a $10-billion facility for the region to cushion the global economic crunch.

The World Bank, however, denied the matter the next day, saying only that it was willing to help East Asian countries deal with the economic crunch.

It was later confirmed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), not the World Bank, was the one that earmarked the $10-billion support facility.

Ms Arroyo based her announcement on the reports of her economic managers, specifically Finance Secretary Margarito Teves, who met with executives of the World Bank and the IMF in Washington DC last week.

They look alike

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said that he, Teves and Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya had met with the bank and IMF officials at the same time and a number of times, and it was difficult to tell them apart.

“They’re Caucasians and they look alike. It’s not easy to distinguish them. It’s possible that also caused the mix-up,” Recto said Friday in a phone interview.

Ms Arroyo claimed the package was sealed during meetings of the economic managers with finance officials of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), and their partners from Japan, China and Korea.

It was Teves who relayed the World Bank’s alleged bailout package to the President, who announced it before the Union of Local Authorities of the Philippines, and delegates to the Asean 100 Leadership Forum in Malacañang last Wednesday.

But Bert Hoffman, World Bank country director for the Philippines, denied this Thursday, saying the bank made no commitment to such a package. Later in the day, Teves relayed to Trade Secretary Peter Favila that the offer had come from the IMF.

Jim Adams, World Bank vice president for East Asia and the Pacific, also said the bank did not anticipate the establishment of such a fund, but its subsidiary, International Finance Corp. was considering setting up a $1-billion special fund to recapitalize small- to medium-sized banks in poor countries with insufficient government capacity.

The President, who attended the inaugural ceremony of the 7th Assembly of the Asian Conference of Religions for Peace at the University of Santo Tomas, refused to comment on the gaffe yesterday.

She merely smiled when asked by reporters about the mix-up on her way out of the UST Medicine Building to her car.

No need to apologize

Recto, who is also the director general of the National Economic and Development Authority, rebuffed suggestions that the government issue an official communication, including an apology, to the World Bank and the IMF.

“There’s no need to apologize. The global crisis wasn’t caused by the Philippines, nor was it caused by Asia,” he said on the phone, adding: “We should not make a mountain out of a molehill.”

When asked if the mix-up was an embarrassment to the government, Recto said: “I don’t see anything embarrassing. It’s just a mix-up of funds and multilaterals.”

Undersecretary Anthony Golez, deputy presidential spokesperson, laughed off Sen. Panfilo Lacson’s call for Teves’ resignation.

“We can’t expect anything good to come from the critics,” he said yesterday in an interview over government station Radyo ng Bayan. Whatever the President and Teves talked about on the bailout, “that was between them,” he added.

Per Recto’s account, the World Bank and IMF officials mentioned the $10 billion in one of the meetings that revolved around the Asean.

Recto said he got the impression that the executives had added up the available facility for each of the 10 Asean member-countries and came up with the $10 billion figure.

“It came from them. But they didn’t want it to be a regional fund,” he said, pointing out that the IMF grants loans to countries on a bilateral—not a multilateral—basis while the World Bank makes investments.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20081018-167075/Cabinet-man-downplays-Arroyo-gaffe


How ready is ‘island of calm’ for the storm? President’s men have ready answers, but risks abound      
Written by Mia M. Gonzalez, Reporter   
Wednesday, 15 October 2008 18:09

ON the day the US Senate initially rejected the original bailout package, President Arroyo directed her economic managers to work on safety nets and responses suited for whatever outcome there may be.   The September 30 meeting yielded an action plan disclosed to the public only in general terms but not in detail, supposedly to keep “naughty” speculators from preempting it.  The action plan is anchored on  accelerated spending on infrastructure and agricultural development to support economic growth, while keeping the P75-billion deficit cap for this year and the balanced-budget target for 2010. Growth targets have been scaled down to a more “realistic” and “credible” band of 4.4 percent to 4.9 percent in 2008 and 4.1 percent to 5.1 percent in 2009, which, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto had said, takes into account “the possibility of the US still going into a recession” despite the bailout package.

‘RP is ready’

At their action-plan meeting, the economic managers had conference calls with economists of “international institutions” whom they declined to name, who informed them that “a recession in the US is not far-fetched,” even with a bailout plan in place.

Recto had said on several interviews with the media that while a bailout package would “help stabilize a credit crisis” it is not a guarantee against a US recession next year.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Deputy Governor Nestor Espenilla Jr. had said in a news briefing with economic managers in Malacañang on October 2, the day the US Senate approved the revised bailout plan, that the BSP foresees “no problem down the road” for the Philippines in terms of the US financial mess.

“Some of our financial institutions have been affected primarily because of the contagion effects but since these banks are strong in their own right, we see no further problem down the road,” he said.

He added that the situation of the Philippine banking system is not the same as in the US and Europe, where governments acted swiftly to bail out key “systematically important banks”  and key financial institutions because of solvency issues. Philippine banks, Espenilla said, “have no solvency issues at this time.”

Authorities had said earlier the quick response by two of the largest (Banco de Oro and Metrobank) Philippine banks with exposure to the bankrupt Lehman Brothers Inc., in making timely, full disclosure of such exposure and how well-provisioned they are for potential losses, had greatly helped stabilize the local financial market and avoided bank runs.

Meanwhile, Espenilla said the Philippines had experienced solvency problems during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and obviously “[we] learned our lessons and prepared for it so in this instance, we’re quite ready for it.”

Espenilla also assured the public that the BSP’s gross international reserves are “very safe” because the BSP “has followed an extremely conversative policy with respect to the management of the reserves wherein safety of principal is the primary and overriding consideration so you should have no concern over that issue.”

In a briefing for the Senate on September 29, BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. illustrated, through a pie graph, the extent of the Philippine banking system’s exposure to Lehman brothers: a mere sliver at less than half of 1 percent of total assets, including transactions related to Special Purpose Vehicles and derivatives. A few days later, however, BSP officials acknowledged that, from their continuous tracking of data and submissions from banks, the “less than half of 1 percent” is actually a full 1 percent—though still a ratio we can live with.

Tetangco, briefing senators, had also noted that the capital adequacy ratio of universal and commercial banks is at 14.46 percent, “higher than the BSP prudential standard of 10 percent and the Basel standard of 8 percent,” and that the latest nonperforming loan ratio is below 4 percent, “the lowest level since the 1997 Asian crisis.”



Managing inflationary pressures

Days before the revised bailout plan was finally approved by the US House of Representatives, Mrs. Arroyo assured a crowd in Balangiga, Eastern Samar, that her first priority is shielding ordinary citizens from inflationary pressures to keep food prices in check, and providing safety nets to those most vulnerable to price spikes.

Less than a week later, after global markets tumbled despite moves by US and European governments to bail out their key financial institutions, she ordered her economic managers to map out a contingency plan to shield ordinary Filipinos from the adverse impact of a possible recession of developed economies. She directed labor and foreign affairs officials to craft a similar plan for overseas Filipino workers in affected countries.

The latter plan, however, may hit a snag owing to budget constraints. The Blas Ople Policy Center, in a strongly-worded statement last weekend, noted the very low priority that the Departments of Foreign affairs and of Labor and Employment are getting in the 2009 appropriations bill. This, even though the two agencies are crucial to protecting the economy’s decades-long “goose that lays the golden egg,” or the overseas Filipino worker (OFW).



Tweaking oil tariffs

The Department of Finance is reviewing the guidelines for the automatic oil-tariff adjustment mechanism, which had raised oil tariff from zero to 1 percent because of lower world oil prices, with the end-in-view of possible revisions in consideration of public welfare but without compromising the government’s fiscal position.

The government is also relying on Congress to do its share in building up the country’s economic defenses by passing the proposed 2009 budget on time so that the Executive can spend more, and tax-reform measures such as the rationalization of fiscal incentives and sin taxes.

But again, that intent to “spend more” especially on infrastructure to prime the economy and make up for years of underspending while the government chased its balanced-budget goal, may run into a hard wall with the economic developments in the world. Interviewed at the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meetings in Washington, D.C., private banker Aurelio Montinola said that while the Philippine banking system is stable, the threat may come from the inflationary impact of rising construction materials that could hamper infra spending, and eventually crimp growth.

Finance Secretary Margarito Teves had said in a Palace news briefing that the administration will focus on improving revenue collections and the passage of the two revenue-enhancement measures instead of pursuing new taxes, which the President had ruled out till the end of her term.

Teves said the Bureau of Internal Revenue will continue enhancing its audit systems and increase its taxpayers database through cooperation with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Land Transportation Office  and local government units.

The Bureau of Customs is expected to soon implement its “fuel marking” project, which would allow its officials to detect whether high-value fuel such as jet fuel is being misdeclared as kerosene.

Another anticipated revenue source is the privatization of government shares in Petron, which  the government wants to sell for P25 billion by end-Novermber, and the Philippine National Oil Co.-Exploration Corp. for P16 billion.

Malacañang is also preparing to convene the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council to discuss interbranch cooperation in the face of what Mrs. Arroyo has called “the most significant global economic and financial crisis in a generation.”



Hard times ahead

Government preparations are geared for hard times ahead, even if officials insist that the Philippines is better equipped to handle a global financial crisis now because of its strong macroeconomic fundamentals.

At the 29th Masskara festival in Bacolod City on October 1, the President said that even if the economic situation in the country remains stable, the government will not be complacent and will continue to work on measures to avert any ill effects.

She added that with the US financial woes, “there are hard times again” and “this time the government is averting the effects of a global economic slowdown brought about by the volatile global economic situation” through measures to manage inflationary pressures.

She said food stability and food security will continue to be major priorities of her administration.

When the bailout plan was finally set in motion, Press Secretary Jesus Dureza issued a statement echoing the President’s guarded optimism and urged the people to brace themselves for “hard times ahead.”

Dureza said: “Hard times will start being felt by everybody, not only among masses but among all sectors. There might be some inflationary effect. This means that prices of basic commodities will probably start to act up again.... So we should be ready for more problems to face us.”

The President’s economic reform agenda, he said, “has somehow helped us weather the storm but having said that, the President has called on us to stay the course.”  And added, “this recovery will still take a long time.”

The government will strengthen and look for new markets, including China and India, as US demand is expected to weaken, and is relying on the ever-dependable OFWs to support the Philippine economy to lean on,  especially as many of them work in the  Middle East.



Hard-hit sectors assured

In the meantime, Mrs. Arroyo has assured various sectors to be hit by the expectedly protracted US economic slowdown that the government will do all it can to help them weather the economic storm.

A day after President Bush inked the bill authorizing the $700-billion bailout package, the President told top executives of the Philippine semiconductor and electronics industry that her government is committed to enhancing the sector’s competitiveness by spending more on infrastructure development. She also said the government would work on keeping inflation in check by ensuring the steady supply of affordable food and implementing measures  to soften the impact of high oil prices, which, in turn, would stave off calls for a wage hike.

“Our economy is more resilient today than ever before and I would say more resilient than some other countries in our region. In some other country, which is also an attractive area for your investments otherwise, the overheating is so much that the government has to cut down on infrastructure spending. We have not reached that stage of overheating, and we are not cutting down. In fact, we are increasing infrastructure spending,” she said.

She said this is possible because of the economic and fiscal reforms her administration has implemented over the years, which strengthened the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and banking system “so our economy is strong enough to withstand the external financial turmoil.”

In the days to come, she is expected to repeat a line she has said over and over again to assure any audience anywhere in the country that the Philippines stands on solid economic ground and would not be toppled over by recent developments now and in the long term: “Against the gale force winds of the global economy, we remain bullish on our country and your industry. We are optimistic about our future, your future and we’re deeply committed to be a force for the good of your industry which is good for the people.”

Such words sound reassuring, but whether they would prove true in the end, only growth and inflation figures can tell.

http://businessmirror.com.ph/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=446:how-ready-is-island-of-calm-for-the-storm-presidents-men-have-ready-answers-but-risks-abound-&catid=34:perspective


World Bank does 'not anticipate' Asian crisis fund: statement

MANILA (AFP) — The World Bank Thursday said it was ready to help Asian nations weather the financial crisis but did "not anticipate" a proposed regional emergency fund.

"We stand ready to support all of our member countries across East Asia to deal with the challenges arising from the financial crisis," the bank's East Asia and Pacific vice president Jim Adams said in a statement.

The World Bank however does "not anticipate the establishment of a regional facility," neither has it discussed "commitment of funds at the regional level," he said.

Philippine President Gloria Arroyo on Wednesday announced that finance ministers from the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc "had reached an understanding to establish a standby facility" to assist members experiencing severe liquidity problems.

She said the World Bank was committed to providing initial funding and that along with the IMF "it will draft the implementing mechanism."

The funds, she said, could be used to buy toxic assets and recapitalize troubled financial institutions.

Adams said the bank had held "numerous discussions" with individual countries during the recently held World Bank-International Monetary Fund annual meetings about ways to mitigate the impact of the crisis.

"The World Bank is also supporting the initiatives of the ASEAN members to share information and develop a coordinated response," Adams said.

He said ASEAN countries continue to perform well amid the crisis after instituting fiscal reforms following a similar problem that beset the Asian region in 1997.

"Like all countries, Asian economies must be prepared to deal with any effects of the turmoil," Adams said.

The bank could provide increased lending, equity investments and safety net programs to governments and the private sector for them to manage the impact of the credit crunch, Adams said.

ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iosJ48UHP4JgLf1YrSu4XAOUiYfA

过路客

原帖由 micmic0339 于 18-10-2008 12:10 PM 发表


买外汇？

哈哈，这个好风险，我们不知道它的走向。

好了，我说出自己的看法吧。

黄金、原油，是地球的有限度矿物质，长期一定看涨，如今却货币紧缩，也许投资者没钱往这些地方投资，所以它们的走势比较难测。

房地产，价格会泡沫化，但数量很难泡沫化。比方，在首都一带的有地房屋，已经越来越珍贵。发展商的新计划有地房屋，只在其他地点如 shah alam、putrajaya、seri kembangan、rawang 等，属于市中心的外围地带发展。所以，首都的有地房屋，价格会逐渐攀升。公寓等的价格，比较难测。
但是，如今经济刚陷入衰退，供过于求，房屋价格也许会下挫些许，所以要捡便宜货，也许可以再忍一忍。

真正好的投资，我大胆假设而已，当作话题好了，不是买入建议。

还是金融机构本身。尤其是被市场大幅度抛售的金融股票。

但是，投资这些有两个大风险：
第一、我们不知道谁会被市场淘汰出局。如果投资错误，会烧伤得很厉害。
第二、我们不知道行情何时好转。可以是一年，可以是两年。可能更长的时间，没人知道（或许幕后黑手知道）。

市场不能没有金融机构。况且，现在各国政府“不太透明化”的拯救金融机构，让人看得有点一头雾水，不知道政府在做什么。还说国有化，插手干预银行的行政等。这个非常、非常地脱离“资本主义”精神。

为何政府要选择性地拯救金融企业？什么原因？从来没人公开讨论这个问题，也从来没有政府公开给一个明确的答案。

金融危机发生前，没人过问为何政府让这个问题持续恶化，到没办法补救才来出手相救，背后有什么故事，也许几十年过后，将来有人会写一本阴谋论的书来大谈这件事。

如今问题发生了。如果我是美国财政部长，要处理，也不是死路一条。综合来说，有两个极端的方法，一是见死不救（让经济自己循环过来，很多大型企业家会一天内破产）。一是放钱进去救（拖长经济衰退期，下跌速度比较慢，但很多企业家不会一天内破产）。

要救，只有不断放钱进去，把之前“虚幻”的价值，补到足够为止。问题是，钱哪里来？

大量印自己国家的货币，撇开贬值不说，单单在浮动市场下，肯定被抛售到一文不值。

所以，唯一的做法，就是全世界一齐提高货币量。

这个解决方法，看似容易，要洽谈也不容易。究竟，什么国家，应该提高多少货币量？每个国家的 GDP 不一样，陷入问题的程度不一样，国家债务不一样，兑换率不一样，如何制定什么国家的货币量提高多少？

我们只知道，世界各国的政府，已经给予担保，用“大量印刷钞票”来拯救自己的国家金融危机。不相信，可以再看首脑会议过后，各国各自发表的一致言论。可惜，会议本身的结果，连一页的一致言论和解决方法，都没有。没人觉得奇怪吗？

所以，结论是。

- 把钱收起来。下等做法。

- 待危机过后，经济衰退稳定下来，把钱投资有地房产、能源等，属于中等做法。至少，投资的项目，价值会和货币价值同步上升。假设，货币流通量大增而造成的贬值，RM1 面包变 RM3，那么 RM300千的房地产，将升值到 RM900千，这是一个假设。因为，如果问题解决了，人类还是要往屋子里住，总不能露宿街头。房地产，永远都有国家人口、国家收入、国家货币流通量、国家生产总值等，存在一个同等的对比价值。比较简单的是，拿年收入对房地产的价格比例，作国家房地产价值衡量。

- 把钱拿来投资被政府拯救，被市场严重低估的金融业，属于赚钱最快的做法。

但是这个做法的风险最高，我们不知道哪家金融机构可以渡过难关，哪家不可以。也不知道何时才会回弹。可以肯定的是，这些被拯救的银行，从“没有钱”，变到“有钱”，那些钱，是拿全世界人民的钱平分而来的。

（如果谁要把背后黑手故事，如 rothschild 家族等扯进去，也相当“合理”，但是，不要阴谋论了，只谈已经发生的事实就好。）


这只是一种大胆的假设。

欧贝亚

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inq ... nplays-Arroyo-gaffe
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/busin ... b-asean-crisis-fund
http://www.bworldonline.com/BW101808/content.php?id=002

看了关于ＩＭＦ借钱给菲律宾的新闻，觉得有几点要注意的：
1）不是ＷＯＲＬＤ ＢＡＮＫ要拯救东南亚。
2）ＩＭＦ的建议是提供十亿美金的贷款给东南亚的每一个国家，相信一些国家比如新加坡和文莱根本不会用这贷款。菲律宾的领导层把十个国家的十亿加了起来成为百亿美金的贷款，听起来数目很大。

政府的30仙石油津贴是如何操作的？是不是每个月的定价，政府都会津贴30仙给石油公司？还是如果原油价格跌了，政府就不需要津贴那么多了？那津贴是付给油站、ＰＥＴＤＡＧ、ＥＳＳＯ等公司还是ＰＥＴＲＯＮＡＳ？

津贴政策的取消长远来说对国家是好事。政府现在应该做的是消除赤贫、提供援助给低下收入阶层、以及“反贪污“。“理想“中的政府，省下来的津贴、也应该用来减低税率，以鼓励投资和消费。当然，现实和理想总是有差距的，所以我们才需要一个稳定的两线制。

欧贝亚

提高货币数量是对金融业的利好因素，这点我赞同；毕竟金融业的收入主要取决于它们所拥有的资产的指定巴仙率。这点其实比较有利与那些能够掌控市场的流动资金最大比率的一些银行，也许可以比较HSBC、BoA、Citibank等公司。

然而，要注意欧洲主倡的ＢＲＥＴＴＯＮ ＷＯＯＤＳ ＩＩ协议到底是怎么一会事。

Mr.Business

过路客的level对我来说太高了，我只是说说我以为的。。。

全球的经济风暴的背景因素有很多因素，很多报道提过，我这里也不多说了。。。

我以为现在的问题是钱太少！

银行和保险公司手上持有的ABS和ABS的子子孙孙贬值，所以要write down。银行和保险公司要找钱补充capital ratio，找不够就得倒闭，所以要卖资产。

MorganStanley和Goldman被批准成为商业银行，得将leverage ratio从之前的30倍减到10倍。要如何减呢？卖资产。

Lehman Brothers倒闭导致在她所属户口的大量基金被冻结，基金的钱和股票不能被动用，所以卖出其它资产拿回现钱。

基金面对大量redeem，而且也担心资产越跌越厉害，所以先行卖出资产。

Lehman Brothers倒闭，AIG的评级被降低，Iceland的银行倒闭，她们很多的ABS或子子孙孙的评级被降低，这些东东是被当做抵押品的，所以现在面对margin call，基金迫切卖出资产应付margin call。


现在全球面对恶性循环，银行间和国家间互不信任。例如Iceland，她的基本面本来就差，当投资者对她失去信心，抽出资金，她不死也得死。。。就是这个背景下，各个国家开始宣布全面担保存款，因为我们是面临信心问题。现在在传南韩，Dubai不稳定，如果一个不小心她们也是死定。。。

说了这么多，我的论点其实就是"钱不够用"，所以各个政府投入大量资金入市。。。。

全球过去的消费其实是过度的，我相信消费将减少，需求减少，供应也得减少，制造业，运输业和其它相关行业将大受影响。

资产泡沫破灭，股票和地产的价钱将跌。Cash还是king, 多多益善。

每个人都会受影响，随着时间过去我们将看得更清楚。。。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 18-10-2008 01:26 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

我认为现在是"钱不够用"的时候，应该担心deflation，不用担心inflation。

资产泡沫破灭，消费大量减少，对石油，钢跌，农作物，电子产品的需求大大减少。我国很多制造业的产量在需求减少下显得太高，小心出口制造业。

抄作基金大大减少，我暂时不认为石油棕油会被再抄作，小心油气棕油股。

借贷成本将增加，小心高负债企业。

将有企业倒闭员工失业，小心银行股。

总得来说，我还是认为Cash is King，请保存你的购买力。。。

欧贝亚

从德国反对欧联的统一ＢＡＩＬ ＯＵＴ ＦＵＮＤ来看，现在世界的经济大国分为两大阵营：
1）CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ＝ 美国、英国、法国、西班牙、澳洲、印度、意大利
2）CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS ＝ 俄罗斯、德国、中国、日本、中东、东南亚、荷兰、比利时、挪威、ＦＩＮＬＡＮＤ、瑞士、瑞典。

在加印货币的同时，我相信世界各国也肯定会考虑汇率的走向。现在由法国主导、英国附和的ＢＲＥＴＴＯＮ ＷＯＯＤＳ ＩＩ建议，会不会对那些CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS的国家不利呢？比如：强逼CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS的国家在很短期内把货币大幅增值，间接使美金债务贬值、并加强美国、英国等国的企业竞争力。

Mr.Business

市场缺水。。。The foreign reserve dropped US$9.3 billion (RM32.55 billion) in the second half of September to US$109.7 billion on Sept 30. According to CIMB Research, last month’s drop marked a record pace of contraction since the last time foreign reserves fell as sharply was in the fourth quarter 2005, when it dropped US$9.8 billion.

09-10-2008: Foreign reserve continues to shrink
by Fong Min Hun

KUALA LUMPUR: Rising outflow of foreign investment money and shrinking trade surplus as a result of lower commodity prices are draining the country’s foreign exchange reserve.

The foreign reserve dropped US$9.3 billion (RM32.55 billion) in the second half of September to US$109.7 billion on Sept 30. According to CIMB Research, last month’s drop marked a record pace of contraction since the last time foreign reserves fell as sharply was in the fourth quarter 2005, when it dropped US$9.8 billion.

In terms of ringgit, the foreign reserve fell by a smaller magnitude of RM8.7 billion in the second half of September to RM379.4 billion as at end-September, compared with a decline of RM12.1 billion in the first half of September.

The smaller contraction was due to the foreign exchange revaluation gain, following the strengthening of major currencies against the ringgit during the quarter.

“The bearish market sentiment that has been trampling both domestic bond and equity markets arising from the severity of the global credit crisis has caused massive liquidation of foreign portfolio holdings of Malaysian stocks,” said CIMB.

“Besides that, investors’ sentiments were dampened by the unsettling political situation and macro concerns over the higher fiscal deficit,” it added.

CIMB Research said the bearish sentiment in the debt and equity markets as well as Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) efforts in propping up the ringgit had also contributed to the decline in foreign reserves. The ringgit, according to the research house, had depreciated 5.3% year-to-date.

Foreign holdings in fixed income instruments fell to RM100.6 billion at end-July from RM104.8 billion at end-June 2008 and its peak of RM126.5 billion at end-April, said RHB Research in a research note.

It observed that foreign holdings of debt papers had declined by RM4.2 billion in July. Although the July drop was smaller than the decline in June where foreign holdings decreased by RM7.6 billion, it did however continue a multi-month downward trend.

“This (the drop in July) was the third straight month of decline, suggesting that they are likely to have continued unwinding their positions in the months ahead,” the research house said in a note yesterday.

The foreign divestments were mostly government bills and Malaysian Government Securities.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... a-98350a00-74d64170


'Reserves enough to meet risk of capital inflow halt'
By Rupa Damodaran         
Published: 2008/10/06

Malaysia's foreign reserves are seen to be more than adequate to defend the value of the ringgit even if the entire stock of mobile foreign capital in the country were to reverse, says Citi

MALAYSIA may have recently dug into its foreign exchange reserves to defend the ringgit from an outflow of capital, but it still has enough reserves to handle any total stoppage of foreign capital inflow, says Citi.

"The reserve buffer remains substantial and should be more than adequate to cover the risk of an outright exit of all mobile foreign capital in the country," Citi said in a report.

It described foreign capital as holdings of domestic equity, local bonds and short-term debts.

The risk of a sudden halt of financial inflows is measured by the size of a country's external financing requirements relative to its foreign exchange reserves.

Malaysia's significant current account surplus and limited external debt would put it among the most resilient economies in Asia if financial flows should dry up.

This contrasts with more vulnerable economies such as South Korea, which faces a huge repayment of debt principles, and Vietnam and India which have large current account deficits.

Malaysia's external position is still relatively resilient despite significant portfolio outflows.

"Malaysia's foreign reserves are seen to be more than adequate to defend the value of the ringgit even if the entire stock of mobile foreign capital in the country were to reverse," Citi vice-president for Asia Pacific economics and market analysis Kit Wei Zheng said.

Unlike other Asian countries such as China and Thailand, portfolio capital flows are more important in determining the value of the ringgit as the reserves are relatively small compared to foreign hot money.

Citi noted that much of the foreign exchange intervention has been through forward book rather than spot reserves.

In the second quarter of this year, Bank Negara Malaysia's forward book declined by US$4.9 billion (RM17 billion), while its spot foreign exchange reserve position rose by US$5.5 billion (RM19 billion).

Between July and mid-September, however, spot foreign exchange reserves declined US$6 billion to US$119 (RM21 billion to RM414 billion), while forward foreign exchange reserves fell US$3.55 billion (RM12 billion) in July, suggesting a cummulative loss of at least US$9.55 billion (RM33 billion) in the third quarter.

Citi has revised its end-2008 forecast for the ringgit to RM3.60 against the US dollar from RM3.45, reflecting its revised Singapore dollar forecast to S$1.50 versus the greenback.

Since the Singapore dollar is the second largest currency in the ringgit trade weighted basket, any weakness in the Singapore dollar will likely pull the ringgit down as well.

Zheng said that lingering concerns over inflation, structural deterioration of the fiscal deficit and political uncertainties would also likely impede foreign inflows into the Malaysian Government Securities market and, perhaps, the equity market.

As at June 30 this year, foreigners held RM104.8 billion of Malaysian debt securities. Zheng said, however, that the figure might have fallen to RM80 billion to RM90 billion by the end of last month, an indication of further capital outflows.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... p030a1.xml/Article/




20-10-2008: Najib’s top priority is to avert recession

......
Unhindered capital flows threaten the effectiveness of any monetary easing. In this information age and globalised world, with the click of a mouse, millions of dollar can be instantaneously taken out of the country for higher yielding assets and financial instruments overseas.

In a recent report, Kenanga Research said with the expectation of a large net outflow of portfolio funds of about another RM30 billion to RM50 billion in the second half of 2008, Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) foreign reserves may see at least a US$10 billion to US$20 billion reduction back to the US$90 billion level by year-end.

As at Sept 30, 2008, BNM’s foreign reserves stood at RM379.3 billion (US$109.7 billion), versus the peak at RM408.5 billion as at July 31, 2008.

Any downward adjustment of interest rates may weaken the ringgit further, adding to inflationary pressure. The central bank may have no choice but to act if the slowdown in the last three months of the year pointed to a marked decline in the first quarter of next year.
......

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_1838224f-cb73c03a-687ea900-6257f6ae

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 20-10-2008 03:35 PM 编辑 ]

过路客

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 18-10-2008 12:57 PM 发表
1）不是ＷＯＲＬＤ ＢＡＮＫ要拯救东南亚。
2）ＩＭＦ的建议是提供十亿美金的贷款给东南亚的每一个国家，相信一些国家比如新加坡和文莱根本不会用这贷款。菲律宾的领导层把十个国家的十亿加了起来成为百亿美金的贷款，听起来数目很大。

1) 政治家。他们在玩字眼游戏。
我们来重组事件发生经过。

开始阶段，几乎菲律宾的政府高层都说是 world bank。world bank 否认。

后来菲律宾内阁成员才改口说是 IMF。原本说已经答应，现在改口说 IMF 在“考虑”阶段。
IMF 也否认。

然后，联络不上任何人。

如果知道 arroyo，你会觉得，她不是个糊涂的人。连 IMF 和 world bank 都分不清。

2) IMF 也否认。你提供的第三个 link (abs cbn)也提到了。

所以，这个含政治动机。菲律宾再粗心大意，也不会连连犯错几次，弄错两家机构，数额也没肯定。

但，重点不在这里，重点在于，菲律宾已经“脱口”承认，从当初亚洲各国（尤其东南亚）表示没有牵涉危机，如今已经暗示，身陷“困境”。

这个消息发布的时候（14-16日），刚好美国股市周四隔夜上涨，周五亚洲股市仍然下跌，记得吗？

我只是想说明，预测股市的朋友，不应该只看美国指数，我们这里也有自己的议程。如果不退后一步来看，将不会明白，为何亚洲股市和美国指数“脱节”。

如此而已 。

过路客

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 18-10-2008 12:57 PM 发表
政府的30仙石油津贴是如何操作的？是不是每个月的定价，政府都会津贴30仙给石油公司？还是如果原油价格跌了，政府就不需要津贴那么多了？那津贴是付给油站、ＰＥＴＤＡＧ、ＥＳＳＯ等公司还是ＰＥＴＲＯＮＡＳ？

暂时来说是，每个月定价，但是月头、还是月中，没有一个肯定。就连国会还在讨论，究竟应否每个星期还是双星期等检讨一次。本地政府一贯作风，先实行，后解决。

津贴制度，没记错，应该还不透明化。

津贴是给所有各个油站公司。但必须从这个角度去想，我们是原油净输入国，还是净出产国？
如果是净输入，津贴高于税收。
净原油出产国，政府得到的，比津贴的高。
（当然，也要看津贴幅度和税收幅度）

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 18-10-2008 12:57 PM 发表
津贴政策的取消长远来说对国家是好事。政府现在应该做的是消除赤贫、提供援助给低下收入阶层、以及“反贪污“。“理想“中的政府，省下来的津贴、也应该用来减低税率，以鼓励投资和消费。当然，现实和理想总是有差距的，所以我们才需要一个稳定的两线制。

好，就算我们不和其他原油产国的津贴制度比较，如果政府真的有心取消津贴来造福百姓，这么做，当然是非常、非常好！

消除赤贫、提供援助给低下收入阶层、基建发展等等。

如今津贴大幅度取消后，我们看见政府实施了什么呢？

好像有提升公共交通系统。但，我们也看到雪兰莪有几千辆废置的巴士，白白被浪费了。

谁是公共交通系统的主要负责公司，公司背后高层是什么人？知道了吗？

政府拿着那些钱，去了哪里，做了什么？

过路客

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 18-10-2008 01:12 PM 发表
提高货币数量是对金融业的利好因素，这点我赞同；毕竟金融业的收入主要取决于它们所拥有的资产的指定巴仙率。这点其实比较有利与那些能够掌控市场的流动资金最大比率的一些银行，也许可以比较HSBC、BoA、Citibank等公 ...

我不赞同提高货币数量是好事。

但这么做可以解决金融危机的说法，我赞成。

小明、阿里、穆都，每天收入 RM16、RM16、RM18。（RM50）

村里有 50 个面包，每个 RM1。他们每天可以吃 16、16、18 个面包。

来了个大恶，他每天收入 RM50，因为他很大吃，要买很多面包吃。（加起来共 RM100）

村里的 50个面包，被竞购，所以涨价。每个 RM2。

小明、阿里、穆都、大恶，只能个别分到 8个、8个、9个、25个面包。

因为大恶的出现，小明、阿里、穆都以同样的收入，买到一半的货品而已。

货币增加，并非好事。

我们每个人会变相地更加贫穷。

Genghiss

马国情况比较特殊，如果贪污后得来的钱用在本土市场其实还会适当刺激经济。但贪污后得来的钱全用来在国外，钱流通量少。我们自然感觉到经济不好。

过路客

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 18-10-2008 01:22 PM 发表
说了这么多，我的论点其实就是"钱不够用"，所以各个政府投入大量资金入市。。。。

全球过去的消费其实是过度的，我相信消费将减少，需求减少，供应也得减少，制造业，运输业和其它相关行业将大受影响。

这也等于说，生产减少，GDP下降，对吗？

经济衰退的征兆。

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 18-10-2008 01:33 PM 发表
我认为现在是"钱不够用"的时候，应该担心deflation，不用担心inflation。

资产泡沫破灭，消费大量减少，对石油，钢跌，农作物，电子产品的需求大大减少。我国很多制造业的产量在需求减少下显得太高，小心出口制造 ...

生意兄，两者都可能发生。

其实可以是通货膨胀，可以是通货紧缩。很难知道。

可能两者在不同层面，同时发生。

但是，货币贬值是肯定的，因为货币数量增加了。

再举一个例子。

小明活在一个经济衰退期，货币贬值，通货紧缩和通货膨胀同时发生。房屋跌价，食物涨价。

排屋 - RM300千跌到 RM250千。（贬价）
云吞面从 RM4 涨到 RM6。（涨价）

但经济不景气，小明收入少了，就算更便宜的排屋，小明没钱买。
但是云吞面，他不能天天空着肚子不吃。

所以，小明是更加贫穷了。

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 18-10-2008 01:33 PM 发表
总得来说，我还是认为Cash is King，请保存你的购买力。。。

货币量增加，我的看法也改变了。

几个月以前，我也抱着同样看法，cash is king。

现在，觉得 cash is prince。

也许，将来会觉得 cash is nothing。

Genghiss

如过我是那卖面包的，我赚了大恶，小明、阿里和穆都的钱。
我也会跟大恶买鱼，小明买米，阿里买菜，和穆都买蛋。

来了个大恶，他每天收入 RM50，因为他很大吃，要买很多面包吃。（加起来共 RM100）
村里的 50个面包，被竞购，所以涨价。每个 RM2。

同样的道理他们总不会傻到不起价吧。所以他们最终赚的钱也比过去多。回到最初，我们只是用了＂钱去换物品＂吧了。只是人比较贪心，比较喜欢拿过去的钱和现在的钱拿来作比较。

过路客

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 18-10-2008 01:22 PM 发表
MorganStanley和Goldman被批准成为商业银行，得将leverage ratio从之前的30倍减到10倍。要如何减呢？卖资产。

将杆杠减少，有两个做法：

1. 注销资产。
当 A 银行贷款 RM100千给 小明的时候，会计上 A 银行的 account receivable 多了 RM100千， AR 是在 asset 的计算。

因此，当我们说某家银行的资产有几百、甚至几千亿的时候，其实大部分都是贷款等高杆杠的项目，真正的硬体资产占不多。

所以，减低杆杠，把烂帐注销（write off）就可以。

（以上是错误资讯，谢谢生意兄的提点。 ）

（减少贷款，银行的 cash / capital 还在。注销贷款，银行拿出的 cash 就没了。）

更改版本。

只要银行减少贷出的款额，就可以降低杆杠。

2. 另外一个做法。

提高现金、股票等的资产。

现在美国政府，各国政府，正在做着的事情。

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 18-10-2008 01:46 PM 发表
市场缺水。。。

全中！

[ 本帖最后由 过路客 于 18-10-2008 04:15 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

我认为过去的资产泡沫是有过多资金追逐有限的资产的造成。现在我们面对的是credit crunch，deleveraging。。。资金在卖出手上的资产换回现金，是哪些资金在卖？Lehman Brothers，Goldman，Morgan Stanley，Bear Stearn，美林，AIG，Iceland的银行，Citibank，大大小小的抄作基金。。。大家没看到Citibank连在我国的总部大厦都要卖出，就知道她们多么缺水。

另外我也以为石油和原产品的价格的上涨最主要是因为之前基金在抄作，并不是因为供需因素。

我们不是政府，不能随意印纸币，现在还是应该多多保留现金，不要在这时候买资产。

PS：以上只是我的想法，随时会因为事态发展而改变。

过路客

原帖由 Genghiss 于 18-10-2008 02:46 PM 发表
同样的道理他们总不会傻到不起价吧。所以他们最终赚的钱也比过去多。

很好，大家的脑筋开始动了。

但是，市场的货币，不会无端端增加的。

给你参考一个资料。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

注意里面的各个图表，市场流动的实体钞票，在经济学来说，是叫 M0。

很多国家控制通货膨胀、经济，即使投资者投资货币等，都是不断参考 M0 等的流通量。

过路客

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 18-10-2008 02:49 PM 发表
我们不是政府，不能随意印纸币，现在还是应该多多保留现金，不要在这时候买资产。

当然，不是这个非常时期买产业，更不是在这个时候买金融公司的股票。

也许一年后，也许两年后，但是现在开始要注意行情了。

我们假设。

如果市场有 1 万元。

为了解决金融问题，市场突然多了另一个 1万元，后果是什么？

如果没有发生通货膨胀，没有发生货币大量增加，cash is king 的道理，永远是对的！

但如果真的发生那些情况呢？

过去的历史告诉我们，金融、战争危机后，一些国家的货币大幅度贬值。

cash，不一定是最可靠的物品。