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【行业讨论】木材股将大放异彩

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 楼主| 发表于 7-4-2008 10:09 PM | 显示全部楼层
Firmer prices bode well for timber sector
By Jose Barrock

After 12 months in the doldrums, interest in timber companies is starting to pick up again. Plywood prices, which had been depressed for about a year, are on the rise once again, spurred on by Japanese housing starts, which have rebounded after a sluggish 2007, analysts say.

In a recent research report, Credit Suisse notes: "Plywood prices have bottomed out and are beginning to pick up. We expect this good news to trigger a sector re-rating, especially since share prices have collapsed." Credit Suisse goes on to state that it has upgraded the timber sector to "overweight" from "neutral", largely premised on plywood prices having bottomed out.

According to the research outfit, plywood prices at present are about US$420 (about RM1,329) per cu m, and are expected to increase to US$450 per cubic metre next year. The research house adds that its checks with industry players indicated that export prices of plywood had gained marginally by about 2% to 5% lately, which could be a harbinger of more good news.

With this better outlook, a turnaround could well be in the works.

Last year, the problem stemmed from a Japanese legislation regarding new building standards, which slowed down approvals as players digested the implications of the new rules. With this uncertainty, and with the lack of approvals for construction, a decline in demand for plywood was inevitable. Japanese plywood imports fell some 18%, its worst dip since the Asian financial crisis about 10 years ago. Japan's Ministry of Land had announced that housing starts had fallen below 1.1 million units last year, which was a 40-year low.

The impact of this legislation has been pretty severe on local companies. Publicly traded timber counters, such as Lingui Developments Bhd, Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd, Subur Tiasa Holdings Bhd and WTK Holdings Bhd, were adversely affected by the falling demand and since mid-last year, they have lost between 30% and 60% of their market capitalisation. This was inevitable as some local companies export as much as 90% of their plywood to Japan.

Nevertheless, with the gloom lifting, most timber companies could well be set to capitalise on the changing trends.

The beneficiaries
Hong Kong-listed Samling Global Ltd, which is the parent of Lingui Developments Bhd, stands to be the main beneficiary, with a large forest concession of some 1.4 million ha locally. Samling also has about 1.6 million ha of forest concessions in Guyana and other concessions in New Zealand. Samling, which is the vehicle of low-key tycoon Datuk Yaw Teck Seng, has a controlling 60% equity in Lingui Developments, and a 52% stake in plantation counter Glenealy Plantations (Malaysia) Bhd.

Other large players have much less in terms of concessions, but nevertheless seem attractive, thanks to their depressed share prices over the past year or so. Tan Sri Tiong Hiew King's Jaya Tiasa has about 713,000ha concession, Ta Ann has 440,000ha, and WTK Holdings about 372,000ha.

Credit Suisse has upgraded Samling from "neutral" to "outperform", as a result of the turnaround in plywood prices.
On the domestic front, Credit Suisse upgraded its call on Ta Ann from "neutral" to "outperform", buoyed by better outlook for its timber business and its 45,000ha of oil palm, which will benefit from strong crude palm oil prices.

Cheap valuations
Malaysia is Japan's largest supplier of plywood, accounting for about half of the country's plywood imports and thus stock prices are trading at attractive levels with single-digit price earnings multiples. It is noteworthy that PE multiples could increase to about 20 times when plywood prices strengthen.

It must be noted that despite the lack of demand, the companies have also maintained relatively strong profits. For the year ended December 2007, Ta Ann posted a net profit of RM97 million on RM669.6 million in turnover. During the year in review, net profit fell by 25.6% despite revenue gaining by about 5.1%.

In its research report, Credit Suisse has forecast Ta Ann posting profit of RM140 million from RM1.1 billion in revenue for the current financial year, which marks an improvement of some 44% and 64.3% respectively, from 2007.

For the six months ended December last year, Lingui Developments posted a net profit of RM77.3 million on the back of RM720 million in revenue. This is a dip of about 52.4% and 15% respectively from a year ago.

"A delay in building approvals caused 2007 annual Japanese housing starts to fall below 1.1 million units for the first time in 40 years, but our Japanese property analysts expect a recovery in 2008, which would fuel a recovery in plywood prices. The drop in imports is the worst we have seen since the Asian (financial) crisis, and we anticipate a recovery in coming months," says Credit Suisse.


[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 8-4-2008 09:07 AM 编辑 ]
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发表于 7-4-2008 10:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
明天就买进lingui, 希望能开翻。。。
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发表于 8-4-2008 08:04 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 记得 于 7-4-2008 10:18 PM 发表
明天就买进lingui, 希望能开翻。。。


WTK target price RM 4,
Taaan Target price RM 10,
Lingui Target Price RM 3
Cymao TP RM 1.00
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发表于 8-4-2008 11:12 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 记得 于 7-4-2008 10:18 PM 发表
明天就买进lingui, 希望能开翻。。。

分身~~你又讲你买的?今天没有交易量哦~
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发表于 8-4-2008 11:13 AM | 显示全部楼层
大家有没有发觉~
很多木材(industrial)股和去年first quaerter比起来~~
profit都decrease了差不多一半~
而且现在多数木材股都是接近0交易的
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发表于 8-4-2008 02:44 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 kray_keigo 于 8-4-2008 11:13 AM 发表
大家有没有发觉~
很多木材(industrial)股和去年first quaerter比起来~~
profit都decrease了差不多一半~
而且现在多数木材股都是接近0交易的

好股只有老板自己买进。
假如老板在丢票。。你也快点丢。
最近这几家老板在收票。好戏就要上场了。
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 楼主| 发表于 8-4-2008 03:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 kray_keigo 于 8-4-2008 11:13 发表
大家有没有发觉~
很多木材(industrial)股和去年first quaerter比起来~~
profit都decrease了差不多一半~
而且现在多数木材股都是接近0交易的

去年first quaerter比起来~~profit都decrease了差不多一半
why? 因为去年木材价格跌。
今年3月, 木才价格已回到2006 年水平。
我相信木材股也因价格飙升而水涨船高
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 楼主| 发表于 8-4-2008 03:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 记得 于 7-4-2008 22:18 发表
明天就买进lingui, 希望能开翻。。。

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=3938.HK
Samling Global - Hongkong
Major share holder  Lingui
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发表于 8-4-2008 03:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 325525 于 8-4-2008 03:19 PM 发表

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=3938.HK
Samling Global - Hongkong
Major share holder  Lingui

你错了~~major share holder是yaw chee ming~本地人~
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发表于 8-4-2008 10:37 PM | 显示全部楼层


3938.HK- Samling Global Hong Kong (Start moving up)
2011.KLS- LINGUI
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 楼主| 发表于 15-4-2008 07:13 AM | 显示全部楼层
由于中国夹板供应减少、日本需求提升,加上雨季影响了大马的伐木活动及产量,木材业者因此普遍认为,木材价格将继续上涨,该领域最糟的情况已经结束。
联昌国际证券行指出,该公司上周五举办的一项研讨会上,木材业者一致认为,基于上述原因,木材领域已经雨过天晴。

出席研讨会的业者,包括大马木材协会(Malaysian Timber Association)主席拿督赛益奥曼,以及5家木材上市公司,即亿顺机构(Eksons,9016,主板工业产品股)、长青纤维板(Evergrn,5101,主板工业产品股)、常成控股(JTiasa,4383,主板工业产品股)、实值木材产品(Pworth,7123,主板工业产品)、及林威(Lingui,2011,主板工业产品股)。

该证券行指出,木材价格跌至最低点后在今年2月已经开始回升,而且中国夹板供应降低,将激励夹板价格。

由于中国政府减少夹板出口税务回扣,导致该国夹板产量减少。今年2月份,其夹板产量按年下滑36万立方米,而且部分业者相信它将进一步下跌20至30万立方米。

分析员披露,如果中国夹板供应持续下滑,其价格在未来的几个月内将反弹。此外,俄罗斯的软木原木供应紧缩,也将使纽西兰、智利及马来西亚等国家受惠。

另外,由于木材业者将上涨的营运成本转嫁到客户身上,因此,原木及夹板价格将在未来数个月内继续飙升。

根据该分析员,日本的产业市场需求提升,也是该领域的转捩点,基于日本木材产品需求恢复,木材价格已经上涨了5%。

雨季影响伐木活动

此外,他说,最近雨季,影响了大马的伐木活动,可能导致我国未来数个月的原木及夹板供应受挫,价格更高。

业者也认为,令吉增值不会造成忧虑,因为在1990年代令吉兑美元为2.50的水平时,他们仍有利可图。

尽管市场一致认为木材领域最糟糕情况已经过去,但是,在看到更明确的征兆前,该证券行分析员仍维持该领域“中立”的评级,同时,持续维持林威及亿顺机构“超越大市”的评级
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 楼主| 发表于 15-4-2008 07:18 AM | 显示全部楼层
LINGUI 很快就会上到RM2.00..
NTA = 2.54
EPS= 11.54 (1/2 year), 20 ( estimate 1 year)
PE = 1.34/20= 6.7




SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31/12/2007

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31/12/2007
31/12/2006
31/12/2007
31/12/2006
RM'000
RM'000
RM'000
RM'000
1Revenue
363,493
409,870
720,020
845,377
2Profit/(loss) before tax
35,077
96,802
59,770
196,866
3Profit/(loss) for the period
32,600
76,126
77,298
162,269
4Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
32,600
76,126
77,298
162,269
5Basic earnings/(loss) per share (sen)
4.94
11.54
11.72
24.60
6Proposed/Declared dividend per share (sen)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00








AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7
Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (RM)
2.5900
2.5400
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发表于 15-4-2008 10:28 AM | 显示全部楼层
今天lingui一下子就起这么多了
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发表于 15-4-2008 12:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 小女人下午茶~ 于 15-4-2008 10:28 AM 发表
今天lingui一下子就起这么多了


木材涨价了。。快点买进。
RM1。49 还是很便宜。
随时会到RM2。00
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发表于 15-4-2008 05:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
新闻。

Tuesday April 15, 2008

Timber product prices on the rise
By LEONG HUNG YEE

PETALING JAYA: Prices of Malaysian timber products have been rising steadily as the raw materials shortage became critical as a result of tropical thunderstorms.

CIMB Research said in a recent report the heavy rain in the country since February had affected timber-harvesting activities and could dent log and plywood supply over the next few months.

“This could lead to a log shortage over the next few months, which is likely to translate into much higher timber prices if demand from Japan picks up quickly during the same period,” it said.

CIMB said China could be one of the key factors in a major turnaround for plywood prices. It said China’s plywood production had declined since the government reduced the export rebate from 20% to 5% at end-2007. If the output continued to fall, a further recovery of plywood prices in the coming months could be expected, it said.
The current situation could lead to a log shortage over the next few months, which is likely to translate into much higher timber prices if demand from Japan picks up.

“Although we believe the worst is over for the timber sector, we take a neutral stance until we see strong signs of a catalyst for the sector,” the research house said.

Meanwhile, analysts said timber products prices were not soaring but gradually improving. They said the prices had risen partly because of the constraints on supply and high transportation costs due to rising oil prices.

“While the construction industry in Japan is recovering, plywood manufacturers were not prepared to ease prices further.

“Rising fuel costs had caused many manufacturers to resist cutting prices. Moreover, some manufacturers were expecting demand to pick up as several reconstruction projects will be launched in China to fix damage caused by recent winter storms,” an analyst said.

Analysts continued to be optimistic about price stabilisation in the near future. However, they expressed concern over the volatility of oil prices as well as a possible recession in the US.

According to Malaysian Timber Association president Datuk Sheikh Othman Rahman, industry players could expect to see better times ahead now that the worst is over for the local timber industry.

He viewed the timber industry as a vibrant industry, contrary to market perception of it being a sunset industry.

“Malaysia’s timber exports have risen to RM23.3bil in 2006 from only RM14bil in 1996, with the largest export markets being Japan, the US and China,” Othman said, adding that timber exports were forecast to reach RM50bil by 2020.

Going forward, Othman expected timber companies to move towards more downstream production. He added that the Government had set up a special purpose vehicle to disburse RM1bil under a 15-year programme to plant 375,000ha of high-value timber trees by 2020.

Meanwhile, two foreign brokerages, Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse also issued calls to upgrade the timber sector last month.

Credit Suisse issued a note to upgrade the Asian timber sector from neutral to overweight. Merrill Lynch's March 4 report said plywood prices had reached a bottom and had started to pick up.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 69&sec=business
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发表于 16-4-2008 09:51 AM | 显示全部楼层
EKSONS 还没什么上涨到,
快买进吧....
证券行 推荐 超越大市!!!!!!
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发表于 16-4-2008 10:15 AM | 显示全部楼层
lingui RM1.60....
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 楼主| 发表于 16-4-2008 10:37 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 记得 于 16-4-2008 10:15 发表
lingui RM1.60....

我的预测股价会和上一次2006一样。
分四个阶段。RM1。30, 1。80, 2。30, 3。00up
下一个关口在 1.80,可能会停留一段时间

DateClosingVolume
10/9/20061.16
234,200
10/16/20061.11
76,800
10/23/20061.15
37,000
10/30/20061.15
134,800
11/6/20061.2
316,400
11/13/20061.52
1,566,300
11/20/20061.78
3,801,700
11/27/20061.75
1,360,500
12/4/20061.7
511,200
12/11/20061.55
923,100
12/18/20061.8
1,799,600
12/25/20061.96
1,717,100
1/1/20072.1
1,008,800
1/8/20072.06
1,071,200
1/15/20072.14
1,047,800
1/22/20072.65
3,758,300
1/29/20073.22
8,747,600
2/5/20073.16
4,244,000
2/12/20073.9
3,504,900
2/19/20073.86
1,505,500
2/26/20073.66
5,082,300


[ 本帖最后由 325525 于 16-4-2008 10:39 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 17-4-2008 01:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 elvingan 于 16-4-2008 09:51 AM 发表
EKSONS 还没什么上涨到,
快买进吧....
证券行 推荐 超越大市!!!!!!


今天还跌了
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发表于 17-4-2008 02:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 维纳斯之吻 于 17-4-2008 01:21 PM 发表


今天还跌了


笑什么,早上头两宗是我卖的,
还赚了些零用钱...
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