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【EKSONS 9016 交流专区】亿顺机构

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发表于 27-1-2005 12:13 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 icy97 于 3-2-2012 01:09 AM 编辑


投机选择   : Eksons Corporation Berhad
信心指数   : 70%
投机期限   : 暂时不定期限(可能会成为我长期投资目标)
现价       : RM1.39
建议       : 逢跌买入
目标       : 最少RM2.00
投机理由   :
  1. 这几个季度的盈利都有增长(复苏股的特征之一)。
  2. 已淡出亏损的纺织业。
  3. 长短期债务都有减少的现象。
  4. 它两个季度的EPS已来到15.29分,而股价则从谷底上扬至1.42 -> 我认为这是一个好现象,
     证明有人开始留意到它的存在了。
  5. 木材价格中长期看好,我们又少了一个后顾之忧。

它的前身是Chongai corporation(5股变1股后被倒置收购),经过了这几年努力之后(2003年在Tawau建第2间工厂后),其业绩与盈利都一直在增长着。苦尽甘来,Eksons开始品尝成果的时刻快到来了,我糊涂愿意陪它继续成长。呵呵,下回有空再向大家介绍这只复苏股!


转载自:
TOYOCHEM CORPORATION BERHAD

[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 27-1-2005 at 02:19 AM ]
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发表于 27-1-2005 12:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
EKSONS, 是三只股里面投机气份最高的一个.....我之前也说过了......
是炒股集团控制的一只股!!!
糊涂坛主如此再介绍,难道又要引诱我玩EKSONS?嘻嘻!!!
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发表于 27-1-2005 01:16 AM | 显示全部楼层
jbtrader 于 27-1-2005 12:21 AM  说 :
EKSONS, 是三只股里面投机气份最高的一个.....我之前也说过了......
是炒股集团控制的一只股!!!
糊涂坛主如此再介绍,难道又要引诱我玩EKSONS?嘻嘻!!!


哈哈,想到ekson又让我想起haman。
去年他说公司的纺织业chong ngai会被倒置收购,事隔要一年了,公司果然卖掉chong ngai!
奇怪,这几个月都没看到他了,他跟里面的operator很熟,所以有炒没炒就问他咯!
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 楼主| 发表于 27-1-2005 02:45 AM | 显示全部楼层
jbtrader 于 27-1-2005 12:21 AM  说 :
EKSONS, 是三只股里面投机气份最高的一个.....我之前也说过了......
是炒股集团控制的一只股!!!
糊涂坛主如此再介绍,难道又要引诱我玩EKSONS?嘻嘻!!!


近来风向不定,来的可能会是龙卷风呢。
远离基本面差的投机股,专注于基本面强的投机股是个较好的选择。
至少可以做到 - 进可攻,退可守。
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发表于 27-1-2005 10:30 PM | 显示全部楼层
Chongai Knitting Company Sdn Bhd 是怎样的公司?大家有研究吗?

Proposed Disposal of the Entire Issued and Paid-up Share Capital of Chongai Knitting

Company Sdn Bhd Comprising of 16,000,000 Ordinary Shares of RM1.00 each for a Total Cash Consideration of RM1,150,000

Contents :

1. INTRODUCTION

The Board of Directors of Eksons Corporation Berhad ("Eksons" or "Company") wishes to announce that Eksons has on 25 January 2005 entered into a Sale & Purchase Agreement ("Agreement") with Incomrise Sdn Bhd ("Purchaser") to dispose the entire issued and paid-up share capital of Chongai Knitting Company Sdn Bhd ("CKC") comprising of 16,000,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each ("Sale Shares") to the Purchaser for a total cash consideration of RM1,150,000 ("Proposed Disposal").

2. BRIEF INFORMATION ON CKC

CKC was incorporated on 31 March 1977 with an authorised share capital of RM25,000,000 comprising of 25,000,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each, of which 16,000,000 ordinary shares have been issued and fully paid-up. Its principal activity is the manufacture of knitwear. CKC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Eksons.

3. TERMS OF PAYMENT

The disposal consideration of RM1,150,000 was arrived at on a "willing-seller willing-buyer" basis, and shall be paid by the Purchaser in the following manner :-
(i) RM115,000 on signing of the Agreement;
(ii) the remaining RM1,035,000 shall be paid over six (6) equal monthly instalments of RM172,500 each, commencing from Feb 2005,

The completion of the sale and purchase of the Sale Shares shall take place on or before 15 July 2005 at the office of the Company.
4. CUT-OFF DATE

The cut-off date is 15 March 2005, whereby the management of CKC will be taken over by the Purchaser and will thus cease to be a subsidiary company of Eksons.

5. CONDITIONS

The Proposed Disposal is conditional upon the approval of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry ("MITI").

6. RATIONALE FOR THE PROPOSED DISPOSAL

The Company had on 19 November 2004 resolved to cease the business operations of CKC with effect from 15 March 2005. The Board of Directors of Eksons is of the opinion that the Proposed Disposal is in the best interest of the Group.

7. FINANCIAL EFFECTS OF THE PROPOSED DISPOSAL

The Proposed Disposal will be satisfied by cash and will not have any material effect on the net tangible assets and earnings of the Group for the financial year ending 31 March 2005.

8. INTEREST OF DIRECTORS AND SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS

None of the Directors or substantial shareholders of Eksons and/or any persons connected with them have any interest, direct or indirect in the above Proposed Disposal.
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 楼主| 发表于 27-1-2005 10:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
它是eksons的独资子公司,占了eksons营业额的3% -〉这几年来都是处于亏损的状况,脱售它对eksons来说是百利而无一害。
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发表于 27-1-2005 11:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
EKSONS

10-Jan-05      1.47     1.48     1.46     1.47    0.020    1,354   
11-Jan-05      1.48     1.50     1.45     1.46    -0.010    3,605   
12-Jan-05      1.46     1.47     1.44     1.44    -0.020    1,469   
13-Jan-05      1.44     1.44     1.43     1.44    0.000    88   
14-Jan-05      1.45     1.45     1.43     1.43    -0.010    1,160   
17-Jan-05      1.42     1.43     1.42     1.42    -0.010    980   
18-Jan-05      1.42     1.42     1.41     1.42    0.000    1,302   
19-Jan-05      1.42     1.42     1.40     1.41    -0.010    1,436   
20-Jan-05      1.41     1.42     1.41     1.41    0.000    1,240   
24-Jan-05      1.42     1.42     1.40     1.40    -0.010    1,174   
25-Jan-05      1.40     1.40     1.39     1.40    0.000    370   
26-Jan-05      1.40     1.40     1.38     1.39    -0.010    625   
27-Jan-05      1.39     1.39     1.36     1.36    -0.030    735   

Highest price during this period is 1.52 on 31-Dec-2004
Lowest price during this period is 0.92 on 18-Aug-2004

成交量少, 处于跌势中, 以退为进, 离场观看!!!

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 楼主| 发表于 28-1-2005 03:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
对于成长型的复苏股,每一次的下跌都是买入的良机。
成交量愈小 -〉卖压愈小 -〉下跌的风险就愈低

没有信心?
那就算算它的合理价格 -〉以Tekala、Subur、Ta ann、WTK、Jtiasa等木材股来做比较。
算算PE、ROE、PEG也就差不多了。
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发表于 28-1-2005 04:12 PM | 显示全部楼层
Hi,  Kawan,糊涂坛主.
            
           Chongai 就是向我租店屋楼上, 作为女工宿舍, 屋租很难收. (才四百零吉).

           下个月合约到期,  不再续约,  因为生意不好, 全部女工都送回印尼.

           据我所知生意很差, 很差,  其他生意我就不晓得, 请注意我是好意的.....哈哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 28-1-2005 04:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
呵呵,那么巧?

Chongai这几年都是亏钱的,加上中国纺织业抢滩 -〉生意可就越难做了。
卖出了Chongai对Eksons来说是百利而无一害,Eksons也能更专注于其核心业务-〉木材+生产超薄夹板。。 -〉这正是我投机的第2理由丫。呵呵!
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 楼主| 发表于 30-1-2005 11:17 AM | 显示全部楼层
从以下的功课中可以得到的一些结论:

1. 复苏股该有的征兆都差不多出现了。
- Profit Margin显著的提升
- 税前、税后盈利都显著提升
- 总债务逐渐减少
- ROE也逐渐提升

2. 绝对有能力为我们开番。
Eksons.gif
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 楼主| 发表于 24-2-2005 07:43 PM | 显示全部楼层
第三季业绩:
EPS = 6.08(不再每季增长,不过却也比去年进步多了。
一月份的木材价格依然标青,第四季的业绩理应会比第三季来得更好。

以下是数据:
Eksons.GIF
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 楼主| 发表于 4-3-2005 11:50 AM | 显示全部楼层
股价已跌至这三个月来的新低1.23,
基于手头上的子弹已用光了,我唯有继续观望 。。
(抱歉,短期来说这投机也可算是失败了)

2月木材价格有趋软的现像,
印尼木材业的去向将会影响接下来的木材价格走势,
嗯,我可必须多加留意了。。
Timber Price.GIF
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发表于 5-3-2005 10:40 AM | 显示全部楼层
要注意是:-

1)        卖出了Chongai+抄原工,要赔多少价钱,3月成绩影响多大?
2)         wtk ,taann等等有伐木权, Eksons没有!
3)        没有伐木权,那就要跟同业比较(没有伐木权木材股)
4)        他是周期股!
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 楼主| 发表于 5-3-2005 11:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
附件没问题丫,我能够看到2月份的平均价格,
至于今年木材业展望,我觉得WTK季报中的Current Year Prospects值得我们去参考..


Although there was some easing in purchase volumes during the quarter in review, the Group remains positive that the hold positions adopted by buyers are only reflective of an initial reaction to possible increase in supply by the Indonesians. The new Indonesian government in stepping up efforts to curb over-production and illegal logging are toying with an increase in logging quota to fuel the country’s downstream production needs.  Its imposition of a ban on the export of logs and sawntimber are still in place.  Also, Malaysians producers have encountered slower production due to recent heavier rainy weather.  

The Group expects timber prices to remain firm through 2Q2005 due to increase in demand from a robust construction, reconstruction and infrastructure activities backdrop in key markets like Japan, India and some Asean countries.  Shipments to Japan and India remain firm at 20% and 35% respectively.  

Given the same undertone, the Group’s plywood division expects similar guidance with respect to demand of its floorbase products to its key market, Japan.  We continue to be the largest floorbase producer in Malaysia and is expected to ride on the increase in the Japanese’s demand of this product from Malaysia.  The Japanese used to source the lion’s share of floorbase products from Indonesia.
Cyclical swings in buying trends are not unexpected in the timber industry.  However, in the broader picture, the Group maintains that the industry is undergoing structural changes with respect to supply and sustainability in the long term; and this is expected to positively impact tropical timber prices.

For the non-timber manufacturing and trading division, its market remains competitive and challenging due to the lower priced products manufactured from China and Asean countries. The Group has confidence to sustain its competitiveness and performance in the next four quarters of year 2005. The Group will continuously adopt an aggressive implementation plan with concerted efforts to develop new products, better products mix and reinforce its marketing strategies and plans.
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 楼主| 发表于 5-3-2005 11:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
USA 于 5-3-2005 10:40 AM  说 :
要注意是:-

1)        卖出了Chongai+抄原工,要赔多少价钱,3月成绩影响多大?
2)         wtk ,taann等等有伐木权, Eksons没有!
3)        没有伐木权,那就要跟同业比较(没有伐木权木材股)
4)        他是周期股!


是的,Ekson与Tekala一样是没有伐木权的木材股。Ekson的主要产品为“3mm以下的超薄夹板”,所以享有较高的赚益。无论如何,木材或夹板价格走低对Ekson来说都不会是件好事。

[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 5-3-2005 at 11:23 AM ]
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衛爾鋼 该用户已被删除
发表于 5-3-2005 11:49 AM | 显示全部楼层
貼上OSK (Mar04,05) 對木材領域作的研究, 以供參考

OSK -- Overweight on Timber sector

Winter season dampened demand
The 4Q coincided with the monsoon season in Sarawak which reduced the supply of logs and increased the unit cost of production. At the same time, the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere also reduced the demand for plywood which is used in construction. This led to a fall in timber prices and the 45.5% drop q-o-q in net profits.
Timber Prices make a Comeback

On a y-t-d basis, the sector reported a spectacular 171.6% growth in net earnings as timber prices resurged following increased demand from Japan and reduced log supply from Indonesia. Comparing 4Q04 with 4Q03, we see the early movers Ta Ann recording a fall in earnings while slower players such as Lingui and WTK were still experiencing lower prices in 4Q03 and have reported y-o-y growth.

Prices Expected to Remain Firm
During the 4Q, buyers had held off given low demand from their customers and on anticipation that log supply from Indonesia might increase. With the spring construction season around the corner in Japan, the International Tropical Timber Organisation has reported increases in timber prices as buyers come back into the market. Indication from Indonesia is also that the illegal logging situation remains under control with perhaps more wood required domestically for the reconstruction of tsunami hit regions in Aceh. With prices expected to remain stable and production increases in companies such as Ta Ann, Lingui and WTK, we remain Overweight on the sector with Ta Ann as our top pick followed by Lingui.
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 楼主| 发表于 11-3-2005 07:56 AM | 显示全部楼层
ArsenalMAS,
谢谢帮我解答。。。

不要這樣嘛,
这些数据是自己整理的,把季度报告的数据纪录在Excel上就行了,也花不上多少时间。

紅凌,
以下世界银行数据的连接处,原产品的价格走势update monthly的。

web.worldbank.org

选-〉Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet)


[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 11-3-2005 at 08:02 AM ]
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发表于 11-4-2005 12:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
Eksons的股价持续下跌。从走势看来,还会下跌吧?不知各位大大的意见如何?
Current Price = RM1.18

2004 FY: EPS = 10。69, PE = 11.04
2005 Total 3Q: EPS = 21.37, PE = 5.52
2005 Est. FY: EPS = 21.37 / 3 X 4 = 28.49, PE = 4.14

算了过后,有点流口水。。。不知各位大大和糊涂大大,有任何关于eksons的消息吗?

谢谢!

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发表于 5-5-2005 11:55 AM | 显示全部楼层
World Bank - May Commodity Price

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