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GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: FED RATE AND PRESS CONFERENCE: THE MARKET REACHES A BOILING POINT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair completed a retracement that reached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and soon after, it started to descend. No major advances were made and price returned below 1.1185.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period EMA offered good resistance yesterday and pushed price lower almost immediately after being touched. This shows us that the bears are in control of short term price action and strengthens our view that 1.1150 support will be touched or even broken in the near future. The oscillators are no longer oversold so the pair is free to move to either side but today we have a cluster of Fed announcements and these will be the main market mover.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current <0.50% and at the same time the FOMC will release a Rate Statement, detailing the reasons that determined the rate vote.

Also at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC Economic Projections come out, containing economic growth and inflation expectations for the next 2 years. Half an hour later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision and answering journalists’ questions; usually this is the most volatile time of the day because the US Dollar is very responsive to Yellen’s attitude and answers. Often price movement is irregular as traders around the world try to interpret her words, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

After a brief pullback to the upside, the pair continued its travel south and broke the support at 1.3000. This is an important victory for the bears, which solidifies their medium term control and opens the door for additional downside movement.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the next medium term target is the support located around 1.2880 but we must note the oversold condition of both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. This means that we may see a move back up, towards the recently broken 1.3000 but today’s price direction will be mainly decided by the U.S. events so the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any Pound-affecting indicators today but the Fed meeting and rate announcement will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.

GDMFX

日央行采取额外行动，美联储加息按兵不动

>>一、日内基本面分析

   北京时间周四(9月22日)凌晨，全球金融市场密切关注的美联储9月政策决议最终出台。此次会议显示，美联储以7：3的投票结果"暂时"维持利率不变，其中乔治、梅斯特和罗森格伦支持加息，17位政策制定者中有14位预计年底前至少升息一次，并指出经济近期风险看来"大致均衡"。结果正如市场之前预期的一样，美联储决定在9月维持联邦基金利率不变。

　会后美联储发表声明：指出当前美国就业市场继续增强，就业增长稳健，自上半年经济活动已经加快。暗示经济已经回暖，长期GDP增速预期为1.8%，6月预期为2%。之后将继续密切关注通胀和全球形势发展，预计经济只能保证渐进式加息。因此美联储决定暂时等待一段时间，等候更多数据证明加息的必要性。对此市场投资者普遍认为美联储预计2016年年底前将加息一次；2017年加息两次，从6月时的三次有所下调；预计2018年加息3次。

   日央行周三公布最新利率决议，决定保持负利率在-0.1%以及资产购买规模不变，放弃基础货币目标转而引入的“收益率曲线控制”机制，即通过购买长期国债以保持10年期国债收益率在零水平附近。为达到通胀目标，日央行以长期利率为目标的措施可谓又是一大创举，市场在初闻该措施后认为这是日央行进一步扩大宽松的努力，日元当时迅速贬值。令市场困惑的日央行新政策下日元周三短线走弱后大幅走强，加之后来的美联储利率决议进一步打压美元，美元/日元周三可谓背负受敌。技术上美元/日元再次受到阻于6月份以来下行压力线回落，目前即将考验关键支持100，如果有效跌破该水平预计将打开进一步下行空间。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

欧元投机净空头减少11155份(或12%)至81475份
加元投机净多头减少3847份(或18%)至17058份
原油投机净多头增加27507份(或10%)至313302份

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：连接昨天低点1308和1320，趋势线支撑是1329，日线大阳支撑1320是妥妥的支撑点，今天甚至这周都不可能下破了，而凌晨回踩1320上升，有二次回踩1327的动作，当时利率决议行情已经基本走完，后面耶伦陆续讲话，形成震荡，这个点是今天行情的支撑点，因为现在价格1334距离1320很远，我不可能让你在1320之上多，这没有操作性，我会直接告诉你在1327之上做多，能简单的事情我绝不复杂，一定要复杂那我就一步一步完成，这才是我的风格，昨晚下探回升并回踩过1327位置，在日线大阳支撑下，今天必定是个上升走势，或者高位震荡修正，记得九月初非农后一周我疯狂做多看破1330吗？想想现在行情跟那会是不是有点像？唯一不一样的可能是现在做多方向更明确，所以不多说，继续做多，激进去多，反正是妥妥的上升行情，那就抢在别人前面做多，然后让别人来给你抬轿；日内走势，黄金现价1333多，止损1327，目标1340、1345。

Crude-Oil:这周原油开始递阶式反弹，有点让我意外，因为周评原油我是看空到41一带的，现在属于提前上涨，不过周一上升之后，周二交割完我早评是尝试性做多看涨的，这个上升我抓住了，也就意味着本周最大的一波上升利润被我抓住，是的，周二美盘的上升肯定是本周最大的上涨，尽管今天才周四，但你看看昨晚EIA利好后的上涨，涨起来有气无力，最后好不容易隔夜上升了，现在原油是大震荡行情，其实黄金白银也是，无论是上涨还是下跌都会一波走完，延续性很强，比如上周跌了一周，这周涨了一周，这是一个道理，日线中阳对今天行情提供支撑，但昨晚上升没力度，所以今天回落才可以多，并且注意46一带也许可以尝试做空，操作方面我也确实会给个做空位置，算是尝试吧；日内走势，美国原油46空，止损我46.5，目标45！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种              方  向       入场区域        支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1220          1.1100          1.1260
GBPUSD              空         1.3060          1.2910          1.3100
AUDUSD              空         0.7630          0.7500          0.7660  
USDJPY               多         100.30          100.00           102.60
XAUUSD              多         1320.0          1315.0          1340.0
XAGUSD              空         19.50            19.20           20.10
Crude-Oil            多         45.30            44.80           46.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期              时间              事件                                           重要性                   前值       市场预测
09/22            20:30          美国上周续请失业金人数                  中                     214.3万            214.3万
09/22            20:30         美国上周初请失业金人数                   中                     26万               26.1万
09/22            22:00          美国8月谘商会领先指标月率            中                     0.4%                0.0%
09/22            21:00          欧央行行长德拉吉在欧洲系统风险管理委员会会议上发表讲话

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, US DOLLAR ERASES ALL WEEKLY GAINS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Traders showed buying interest yesterday and the pair climbed for almost the entire session, moving strongly above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and breaking the resistance at 1.1240.

Technical Outlook

The gains obtained by the US Dollar during the previous days were erased and now the pair has returned to a zone where it spent a lot of time ranging in the past. There is no clear trend and although the latest impulse is bullish, we can see a reversal at any time, especially now that the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are approaching overbought. These are the main reasons why we expect downside movement today, possibly into the 50 period EMA. However, if 1.1240 turns into support, we may see a touch of 1.1285.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release their Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes and although these are not high-impact indicators, they are the only notable ones for today so we may see some movement generated. The former indicator is expected to show a value of 53.2, the latter, 52.2 and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakness seen after the Fed Meeting extended throughout yesterday’s trading session and the Pound bulls managed to take price above resistance, keeping control for most of the day.

Technical Outlook

Now the pair is testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way price behaves here will determine the next direction. A close above the EMA will possibly trigger a move into the next potential resistance, located at 1.3175, while a bounce lower will likely take price into 1.3070 again. The Stochastic has crossed its 80 mark, showing signs of overbought and this increases the chances of a move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week has been slow in terms of economic releases that can affect the Pound directly and today is no exception, thus the technical side will be the most important.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: ECB’S DRAGHI TO TESTIFY BEFORE THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT. EURO PREPARES FOR MAJOR SWINGS

EUR/USD

Forex News: German Manufacturing and Services data released Friday was mixed, with the former showing a better than expected value, while the latter disappointed. The pair dropped, then erased the loss but couldn’t surpass resistance.

Technical Outlook

Friday we saw an almost perfect bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this shows that there’s buying interest and that price may surpass 1.1240. If this is the case, the climb may extend into the next resistance, located at 1.1285 but otherwise, 1.1185 will be the probable destination. Mario Draghi’s testimony may have a strong impact on today’s price action and it’s possible to see ranging movement ahead of the event.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a busier Monday than usual, with 2 important events: at 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, with an expected value of 106.3, little changed from the previous 106.2. This survey has a huge sample size of about 7,000 German businesses and asks respondents to give their assessment of current economic conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

At 3:05 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. This is a high-impact speech and depending on his attitude and answers, the event may trigger strong movement thus we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears stepped in and erased all previous Pound gains, thus confirming that the pair is in a short-to-medium term downtrend. Support is still holding for the time being.

Technical Outlook

After piercing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair bounced and moved 200 pips lower, breaching the support at 1.2945. This shows that we are still in a downtrend but the 4-hour candle that breached support shows a long lower wick, which is a clear sign of rejection. This is a good enough reason to believe that price is likely to climb into the zone around 1.3000 but overall, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything major on today’s Pound calendar so the technical aspect will prevail.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: TIMID ADVANCES AND INDECISION AHEAD OF U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro got an early boost yesterday from a better than anticipated German IFO Business Climate Survey (forecast 106.3, actual 109.5) and the pair managed to break 1.1240. However, volatility remained low and the pair didn’t travel a long distance in terms of pips. Draghi’s testimony was shifted one hour earlier but it didn’t have a huge impact on the Euro.

Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the resistance at 1.1285 but if the oscillators will become overbought by that time, we expect the pair to reverse and move back into 1.1240. Although the direction is pretty well defined, the distance travelled is small and this means that the move is fragile, thus a reversal is more likely; however, as long as the pair remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic conditions in general. Usually, numbers above the forecast 98.6 strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is not very high.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved again below the support at 1.2945 but the bears couldn’t make any substantial advances and overall we had a ranging trading session.

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced twice at 1.2915, so this level can now be considered short term support and we can expect it to reject price in the future. For today we expect bullish price action, with 1.3000 as target; this bias is given by the fact that the bears are having difficulties breaking 1.2915 and the oscillators are close to oversold, turning upwards. If 1.3000 holds or if price starts to move downwards before that level is reached, we expect a touch of 1.2880 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any major economic releases for today so the focus will be on the technical side and the U.S. Consumer survey.

GDMFX

美大选辩论热闹，远不及国内炒房产

>>一、日内基本面分析

   日本央行7月会议记录显示，委员们一致认为通胀预期最近下降，委员们均认为，日本经济活动和物价面临的风险偏向下档，部分委员称日本通胀预期容易受到外部因素的影响，比如油价下跌和海外经济成长减速，一些委员称日本央行应扩大ETF购买，因海外经济不确定性可能影响企业和消费者信心，委员们同意鉴于物价前景的不确定性，央行应在9月进行全面评估。

   美联储卡什卡利称，若通胀超过目标，美联储会采取相应的政策工具；9月不加息是正确的；过低的通胀风险大于过高的通胀风险；若通胀上行，预计美联储将加息；将密切关注通胀、通胀预期和失业率；美国劳动力市场不充分，加息前还需等待时日。此外，美联储卡普兰亦表示，美联储在升息问题上应有耐心，但他担忧金融稳定，曾对9月升息感到放心，不怎么担忧出现经济过热，更担心低利率导致经济失真，美国经济并未出现过热，愿意保持耐心等待更长一段时间，加息路径将较以往更加平坦。卡普兰：对金融市场压注美联储加息时间一事并不感到担忧，这些预期改变得很快，美联储正密切关注商业不动产领域，追逐回报影响了资产配置，对影子金融体系心存担忧。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

截止9月20日,英镑投机净空头减少24135份(或29%)至58686份
瑞郎投机净多头增加7065份(或524%)至8413份
澳元投机净多头减少29619份(或81%)至6848份

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：日线下跌已经开始，当前行情，甚至未来相当一段时间的行情，都会以震荡为主，从1375开始的调整确实走得很难，正因为下跌难，所以年线肯定要收好，说明下半年或者明年就还要涨，黄金和白银都是这个套路，短线操作上，昨晚下跌后横盘无反弹，说明多头确实没有反手的能力，下方能看到的支撑是1320，但调整已经启动，与前面上升一样，下跌也会一波到底，这种情况下看支撑基本没有用，我们要做的就是顺势空，不管反不反弹都是空，现在行情弱势，下跌后无反弹，操作上面临是否直接做空的问题，等反弹做空等来的可能是踏空，建议小反弹开空；日内走势，黄金1328空，止损1333，目标1320、1315。

Crude-Oil:确实没想到原油的这种反复性变得这么强，周五大跌，周一大涨，然后昨天又是连续回落，整个行情都是过山车，真是惊险刺激吧？人生大起大落都在原油里面吧？尽管我并不确定昨天会大跌，但我知道周一上涨不过周五高点，那么昨天就应该利用这样的高点位置做空，最终45.8空在昨天最高点，美盘下跌44.2，有没有赚大？接下来行情继续看震荡下行吧，因为周一反弹不破高，昨天下跌却是破低的，这种情况下顺着行情看震荡下行是比较好的选择，但操作上要等反弹空，牛皮糖一样的震荡下跌；日内走势，美国原油45.5空，止损46，目标44！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种            方  向         入场区域       支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1220          1.1100          1.1260
GBPUSD              空         1.3030          1.2910          1.3060
AUDUSD              空         0.7680          0.7500          0.7720  
USDJPY              多         100.30          100.00           102.60
XAUUSD              多         1320.0          1315.0          1340.0
XAGUSD              空         19.20           18.80           19.50
Crude-Oil             多         44.30           44.00            46.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

  日期             时间          事件                                                     重要性             前值       市场预测
09/28            20:30    美国8月耐用品订单月率初值                        高                4.4%               -1.5%  
09/28            20:30    美国8月耐用品订单月率初值（除运输外）    中               1.3%               -0.5%  
09/28            22:30    美国上周EIA原油库存变化                            高              -620万桶           275.3万桶
09/28            22:00    美联储主席耶伦在众议院金融服务委员会就银行监管作证词

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. GDP – VOLATILITY RESTORED?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly, Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony didn’t generate a lot of action yesterday and the pair remained confined in a small range. Support was touched and price bounced immediately but the up move soon faded.

Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range and neither bulls nor bears seem interested to take clear control and to break a notable level. The bounce seen at 1.1185 that failed to continue through 1.1240 resistance confirms the indecision we talked about. For today we expect some downside movement, following the failed attempt to break resistance but if 1.1185 is not broken decisively, we expect another move up.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT we take an early look into German inflation with the release of the Preliminary version of their Consumer Price Index. This is considered a high impact indicator and usually numbers above the forecast 0.0% change are beneficial for the Euro.

Half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product comes out, expected to show a change of 1.3% (previous 1.1%). This is an overall gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important so the impact may be limited; usually numbers above expectations trigger US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday we had another uneventful trading session, with price confined in a tight range. The pair moved almost sideways, between 1.3000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The last few four-hour candles show wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which is a clear sign of indecision but this type of behaviour is often followed by a strong breakout. The Stochastic is slowly approaching overbought and the 50 period EMA offers some resistance so far; these are bearish signs and if today the bulls cannot break the moving average, we expect a bounce lower, possibly into 1.2945.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the entire week so far, the economic calendar for the Pound is light today so traders will turn their attention towards the technical side and the U.S. GDP.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST DAY OF THE TRADING WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday both the German Consumer Price Index and the U.S. GDP showed slightly better than expected values but the impact was mild and the pair remained inside a narrow range, with relatively low volatility.

Technical Outlook

Despite the release of important economic indicators, volatility is not restored and price is still trapped inside a range that’s less than 50 pips. Resistance is located at 1.1240 and support at 1.1185, while the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is traveling flat, confirming the lack of determination from either side. Our bias is neutral until a break is confirmed but keep in mind that after a period of inactivity, usually a strong move follows.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT we take a look at the Eurozone inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The expected change is 0.4% from the previous 0.2% and if this number (or higher) is posted we may see increased volatility, with Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average appeared to be broken but the better than expected value of the U.S. GDP brought mild strength to the US Dollar and currently support is being tested. Volatility remained low and movement was mixed yesterday.

Technical Outlook

Price breached the 50 period EMA but the bulls failed to capitalize on the break and the pair returned below this dynamic form of resistance. This shows that bearish pressure still exists and, coupled with the overbought condition of the Stochastic, may bring the pair below 1.3000. However, movement remains without clear bias so we don’t exclude a move above the 50 EMA and into the resistance at 1.3070.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account is today’s main event for the Pound; the indicator comes out at 8:30 am GMT and shows the difference between imported and exported goods. A higher value than the forecast -30.5B (previous -32.6) is usually beneficial for the Pound.

At the same time the Final version of the British GDP is released but this is the least important of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final) so we don’t expect major movement; however, higher values than the expected 0.6% usually strengthen the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: DEUTSCHE BANK SETTLEMENT SPECULATION DRIVES SHORT TERM PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s strong move was generated by a possible settlement between Deutsche Bank and the U.S. Department of Justice over a fine for mortgage-backed bonds. The initial settlement sum was reported to be 14 billion US Dollars but later in the day a news agency reported that the sum is likely to be around 5 billion US Dollars.

Technical Outlook

The move into 1.1150 was generated by news that Deutsche Bank is likely to pay a 14 billion USD settlement and the bounce up that followed was triggered by the announcement that only 5.4 billion USD will be possibly paid. From a technical standpoint we note that 1.1150 support rejected price higher as soon as it was touched and also that 1.1240 stopped bullish momentum. Today we will see if price stopped because it encountered resistance or simply because the trading week came to an end; if 1.1240 holds, we will likely see a move into 1.1185, otherwise we expect a climb into the zone around 1.1285.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the calendar is light for the Euro, mostly because German banks will be closed, celebrating German Unity Day.

The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 50.4 (previous 49.4). This survey is derived from the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus values above expectations usually are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair reacted to Deutsche Bank news Friday but the effect was almost opposite: the pair initially climbed, just to fall soon after, erasing all gains.

Technical Outlook

The last trading session shows that 1.2945 support is still rejecting falling prices and 1.3000 resistance still rejects rising prices so the pair is mostly ranging. The pair also bounced on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which together with the level at 1.3000, creates a strong confluence zone and tilts our balance slightly towards the short side.

For today we anticipate another touch of 1.2945 but the Stochastic is crossing upwards and this may generate some bullish action; however, this is not a strong enough reason to believe that we will have a bullish trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 52.1. Numbers above this forecast indicate optimism among purchasing managers and usually strengthen the Pound but the impact differs from release to release.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BREXIT BACK IN FOCUS, POUND TAKES A BLOW

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started slow and remained that way until the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI which showed a value of 51.5, better than the forecast 50.4. Some US Dollar strength was seen at the time but overall volatility was very low.

Technical Outlook

The latest price action shows that 1.1240 still acts as resistance and now the pair is trying to move below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average. If the rejection at 1.1240 sends price through the 50 EMA and a full candle closes below the line, we expect to see an extended move south, probably back towards 1.1150. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.1240 will tilt the balance in favour of the bulls, making 1.1285 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will drive the market today because Europe and the United States didn’t schedule important indicators.


GBP/USD

The Pound was severely weakened by talks about a potential deadline for the Brexit, set for March next year. This triggered a strong drop that broke several support levels and took the pair 130 pips lower.

Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching the key level at 1.2796, which is the lowest point reached since the Brexit referendum took place. We expect small retracements to the upside before the level is reached and once price gets there, we expect a stronger move up, based on the fact that both oscillators will be deeply oversold by then. Potential resistance is located at 1.2880.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the construction sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and usually, numbers above the forecast 49.1 strengthen the Pound but given the current situation, the impact may be muted.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: POUND SINKS TO 31-YEAR LOW, SMALL BOUNCE EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday action picked up and the sellers managed to take the pair back into the support at 1.1150. Overall we had a bearish session but price is still in a range.

Technical Outlook

Although the bears advanced into the support at 1.1150, this level is not yet broken so we still consider the pair is in a range and that a move up could very well follow. However, the short term control belongs to the sellers and the oscillators are not oversold so the downside may continue; if this is the case, we expect a break of 1.1130 and a move into 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report is less important than the government data that comes out Friday, but higher values than the forecast 166K can strengthen the US Dollar nonetheless.


GBP/USD

Fears regarding a “hard” Brexit early next year created another bearish session and the pair reached levels last seen in 1985, breaking the low generated by the Brexit referendum.

Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair had reached a low at 1.2736 but it’s very likely to see further downside by the time you read this. After such a strong drop, we expect a bounce higher and the oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic supports such a view. A retracement higher is likely to find resistance at the previous level of 1.2796.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the last PMI in the series comes out: the Services PMI. Given the current situation, we don’t expect the release to have a huge impact but under normal circumstances, numbers above the anticipated 52.1 strengthen the Pound.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EURO STILL RANGE BOUND, POUND PRONE FOR ANOTHER DIP

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair stayed inside 1.1150 – 1.1240 channel and bounced from the bottom of the range all the way up. Now rejection is seen at the top of the range.

Technical Outlook

The pair remains in indecision mode and all moves to one side are quickly reversed. It’s very likely that this behaviour will change Friday when the NFP report comes out but today we don’t expect a clean breakout. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat again and the oscillators are going nowhere so for now the pair should be considered in range-mode, capped by 1.1240 resistance and 1.1150 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both the US Dollar and the Euro and this means that price direction will be decided mostly by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair bottomed at 1.2685, which is the lowest point in over three decades of trading. Small retracements were seen yesterday but the oscillators are still deep in oversold territory.

Technical Outlook

The pair is in a clear downtrend but due to the overextended condition of price, we consider that a move up is next. This potential move up should be regarded as a normal retracement and may be followed by further downside. For now support sits at 1.2685 and potential resistance around 1.2800; our overall bias is bearish and we don’t exclude another drop without a retracement beforehand.

Fundamental Outlook

Just like the United States and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicators for today so traders will focus on the technical side.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BRACE FOR IMPACT: NFP REPORT AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained inside the channel created by 1.1240 resistance and 1.1150 support, with low volatility and overall a bearish bias. Price is still in range mode be we expect this to change with today’s NFP release.

Technical Outlook

Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this slightly tilts the balance towards the short side. Keep in mind that the pair is still in range-mode so after the bounce at the upper part of the range, it’s very possible to see a touch of the lower part. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by the NFP release but the levels to watch remain 1.1240 and 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

The highlight of the day is the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report, also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The indicator tracks changes in the total number of jobs created during the previous month and is widely considered the most important U.S. employment data. Higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar under normal circumstances, thus anything above today’s forecast of 171K, will probably take the pair lower. The time of the release is the usual 12:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

After a very small retracement, the pair took another dive and travelled more than 130 pips to the downside, solidifying the control of the bears.

Technical Outlook

The retracement to the upside wasn’t strong enough to clear the overextended condition of the pair so we expect a bigger climb. The overall bias is clearly bearish and the probability of another move south is very high. The pair is in “uncharted” territory (these levels weren’t seen for more than 30 years) so currently there is no clear support level; minor resistance sits around 1.2760.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. The forecast is 0.4% (previous -0.9%) and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the Pound. The NFP release will also have a strong impact on the pair’s movement.

GDMFX

美元步步攀升，金银退败连连

>>一、日内基本面分析

     上周五，美国劳工部具体公布数据如下：美国9月非农就业人口变动15.6万，预期17.2万，前值15.1万。8月非农就业人口由+15.1万修正为+16.7万，7月由+27.5万修正为+25.2万。美国9月失业率5%，预期4.9%，前值4.9%。其中，失业率符合预期，而非农数据略低于预期，数据利空美元，利好黄金。而数据出炉后，美指表现小幅回落，但是10点后又再度反弹，但是夜间再度掉头向下。黄金则表现冲高回落，但是夜间再度反弹。

     全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR黄金投资信托，其持仓情况被视作反映投资者情绪的一个重要指标。随着金价下跌，SPDR黄金投资信托开始加仓，近一个月内共增持7.09吨，由9月8日的951.81吨增加到目前的958.9吨。进入10月，虽然出现过两次增持，10月1日和和6日分别减持1.19吨和0.32吨，但在金价大跌后，最近一个交易日SPDR黄金投资信托大幅增持11.27吨，这一增持幅度创下了9月6日以来的最大增持幅度。市场人士分析认为，金价走低显然并不是来自黄金ETF的实物清盘，而黄金ETF的增持则反映了投资者对黄金的需求并未改变。高盛分析认为，实物黄金ETF的驱动以及对对黄金投资的需求在2016年并未发生大变动，黄金作为对冲风险的投资品的地位并未改变。

     本周关注重点主要在中美两国。中国将公布9月社融规模、新增人民币贷款和货币供应状况，以及9月进出口和贸易帐数据。北京时间周一早上9：00， 美国将迎来特朗普和希拉里的第二场总统辩论。此外美联储主席耶伦和五名联储高管都会发表讲话，周四FOMC还会公布9月会议纪要。欧洲数据相对寡淡，将公布8月欧元区工业产出数据。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告
截止10月4日,英镑投机净空头增加9858份(或11%)至97572份。
黄金投机净多头减少46396份(或16%)至245508份
原油投机净多头增加71330份(或24%)至362976份

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：前面已经给出纸黄金长线做多计划和点位，中线杠杆类产品也给出1215一带做多位，短线则顺势做空为主，因为刚刚破位下跌，而非农也没有带动黄金反弹，周线压制下这周还不适合做多，短线依然顺势空，点位方面是重点，阻力方面主要关注两个点，一个是非农1265高点，周初如果反弹肯定要先测试这个点，其二是1277高点，这里是上周二下跌后二次反弹高点，在周线压制下，有这两个阻力够用了，建议周初反弹做空，周五非农冲高回落并下探，日线压制已经不强，暂时不盲目追空，以反弹做空为主，根据下降趋势线，我将做空点位放到1270这里；日内走势，黄金1270空，止损1275，目标1250。

Crude-Oil:上周原油一直在日线基础上不断的回踩上涨，直到周五上涨51附近遇阻回落，日线收线不理想，并且已经非常接近51.6的前高，我不看好直接一次性上破，认为原油还是震荡走势，只不过这种震荡在消息面的逐渐引导下变得很强，现在周线收线还不错，但日线遇阻，操作上必须先跟着日线看空，利用前高51一带阻力先空，后面等周线调整到位再做多，参照上周形态，前面五天全部回踩上升，而周五转跌已经不再强势，形态被破坏的结果会引发周初调整，所以原油周初看空，运气好也许会引发较大幅度调整，幅度问题我们后面一步步跟进；日内走势，美国原油49.8空，止损50.3，目标48.8！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种           方  向         入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1200          1.1100          1.1240
GBPUSD              空         1.2430          1.2310          1.2470
AUDUSD              空         0.7610          0.7500          0.7640  
USDJPY              多         102.60          102.30           103.20
XAUUSD             空         1270.0          1250.0          1275.0
AGUSD              空         17.90           17.00           18.15
Crude-Oil           多         48.50           48.00            50.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期           时间         事件                                               重要性          前值       市场预测
10/10        16:30     欧元区10月Sentix投资者信心指数       低               5.6                 6
10/10                      美国哥伦布日： 美国债券市场休市，但美国股市及CME旗下贵金属、原油与外汇合约将正常交易，不受影响。

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: MPC MEMBER TESTIFIES. POUND PRONE TO SUDDEN MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday we saw the pair bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and drop into the support at 1.1150. The economic calendar was light and overall volatility remained low.

Technical Outlook

The pair is still in range mode, with low volatility; so far the 50 EMA offered good resistance and the bias is slightly bearish as long as price is trading below it. We expect a break of 1.1150 and 1.1130 soon, followed by another move into the next support, located at 1.1100. Today’s price action will be influenced by the German ZEW survey but lately the impact of this indicator has diminished.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, the day’s most notable release is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey of about 275 German analysts and institutional investors and reflects their optimism regarding a 6-month outlook for German economy. Higher numbers than the forecast 4.2 (previous 0.5) usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

As it was expected, the pair remained between 1.2480 resistance and 1.2227 support yesterday and no major developments took place.

Technical Outlook

The direction remains uncertain and the pair is mostly affected by overall sentiment rather than technical factors. The main bias is bearish and we expect a move closer to 1.2227 support but for the time being we recommend caution because the Pound is prone to unexpected and sudden moves. The Stochastic is overbought, while the Relative Strength Index is oversold, thus showing mixed signals and adding to the overall uncertainty.

Fundamental Outlook

Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Treasury Select Committee today at 9:00 am GMT. His speech may generate irregular movement or may go mostly unnoticed; either way, use caution.

GDMFX

美元指数强劲上行,金价或将再度承压

>>一、日内基本面分析

周二美盘时段，美国公布了9月就业市场状况指数(LMCI)数据。数据显示意外录得负数-2.2，预期值为1.5，同时并把前值由-0.7修正为-1.3。LMCI指数与非农数据关系密切，其对市场的影响与非农类似，当公布值大于预期值，理论上利好美元，利空黄金白银。LMCI趋势通常领先非农增长年率6-12个月，也就是说，非农数据滞后于LMCI指数6-12个月，这意味着LMCI走势对未来非农长期走势有重要参考作用。对于美国就业市场来说，LMCI能准确的反映美国就业市场状况，相比非农就业报告更为准确。因此，目前市场关注的程度在上升。因而数据公布后，市场出现金银上行美元走软的短线波动。

美国总统选举,特朗普身陷”录音门”丑闻令他支持度下跌，民调显示希拉里支持率领先11%。加上上周美国公布非农数据，数据不合预期,市场对加息存疑, 美元有下跌方向，12月加息机会下跌,黄金在从低位移上回补，黄金因此受惠提振。市场多单买入，亦令黄金价格有实质支持。但市场成然观望FOMC的会议纪录,对加息路向希望有更明确指引,外围方面,人民币中间价失守6.7，离岸在岸人民币均收于六年最低位。日元转弱,有利日本出口,美元兑日元重上104以上水平,美元指数在96上动荡。

　　此外，LMCI数据意外录得疲软，但是美联储年内加息预期骤然在升温。昨日美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯在悉尼的讲话提升了美联储短期内加息的市场预期。埃文斯表示，如果12月美联储加息不会感到惊讶，12月进行加息是可行的，但是最好等到通胀进一步上涨后进行行动，现在美国经济稳健，最近的就业报告也表现不错。美国大选也不是加息障碍，但是愿意等待更多经济数据。受美联储官员依旧加息鹰派言论影响，美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储12月加息概率已经升至68.3%，为逾六个月新高。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

截止10月4日,英镑投机净空头增加9858份(或11%)至97572份。
黄金投机净多头减少46396份(或16%)至245508份
原油投机净多头增加71330份(或24%)至362976份

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：原则上继续在1265之下看空，但注意这周小震荡下行节奏，在连续下跌之后，1241低点之上多头也许会做最后一搏，还有那么一点机会走反弹，如果突破1265，那么周线级别的下跌时间可能要拉长一些，不过这不重要，反正下跌还没有走完，后面妥妥的看空到1220一带，放心，不反弹要做空，反弹了也还是做空，对于今天操作来说，我认为要有一定的应变能力，比如前低1240一带能不能做多，比如如果反弹突破1265要如何应对，这些我可能都没办法再早评中给出，行情可能性太多，不好下手，这里我给一个相对来说中规中矩的操作点，主要针对当前小震荡下跌行情；日内走势，黄金1258空，止损1262，目标1245-48。

Crude-Oil:昨天之所以没能连续上升，是因为白天的回调幅度深了，本来欧盘回踩51直接上涨，那突破前高就不是问题，美盘连续上升也不是问题，但小时线欧盘冲高回落，美盘其实还是有上升，最终受阻51.5回落，日线转阴，高位还有震荡过程，有前面周一大涨的支撑在，今天回落幅度有限，应该还是维持高位震荡，EIA数据是推迟到周四，那会应该不确定性很高，操作上白天可以回落做多，以短线操作为主，美盘要看时间循环，因为近期美盘一般上升为主，现在日线支撑强，但上升幅度已经很大，并且面临前高阻力，最主要应该还是明天EIA数据，说不定多头就此终结，总之对于数据来说，多空都有机会，今天继续看高位震荡；日内走势，美国原油50.2多，止损49.7，目标51.2！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种             方  向         入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1060          1.0910          1.1090
GBPUSD              空         1.2330          1.2210          1.2370
AUDUSD              空         0.7610          0.7500          0.7640  
USDJPY               多         103.00          102.80           103.80
XAUUSD              空         1270.0          1250.0          1275.0
XAGUSD              空         17.90           17.00           18.15
Crude-Oil             多         50.00           49.50            51.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期                时间                事件                                           重要性          前值       市场预测
0/12                                    中国9月新增人民币贷款                    高                  9487亿人民币         10000亿人民币  
10/12                                  中国9月社会融资规模                       高                  14700亿人民币         13188亿人民币
10/12             17:00            欧元区9月工业生产年率                    中                     -0.5%               1.0%  
10/12             17:00             欧元区9月工业生产月率                   低                     -1.1%               1.5%
10/12             19:00              欧佩克及非欧佩克产油国计划召开非正式会议，讨论阿尔及尔协议的实施情况
10/12             20:00             美国纽约联储主席杜德利与纽约州商业理事会进行一场开放媒体采访的谈话

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRENGTHENED BY FOMC MINUTES, BEARS MAINTAIN CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the FOMC Meeting minutes and once the document was released, price action became mixed. According to the Minutes, the FOMC members see a rate hike sooner rather than later, so we expect to see more US Dollar strength in the near future.

Technical Outlook

The pair is hovering around the minor support at 1.1025, with both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index in oversold territory. Also, price travelled a long distance without a retracement so we expect small moves up, followed by another drop that will likely reach the support at 1.0960. The hawkish stance of the FOMC strengthens this bias.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator released today is the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. It shows the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous week but because it’s frequency is high (weekly), its impact is often mild. Nonetheless, numbers above the forecast 252K are usually detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair broke immediate support and then retraced higher ahead of the FOMC release, which didn’t generate a clear direction. Overall the Pound is still vulnerable and under bearish pressure.

Technical Outlook

Even if the US Dollar strength generated by the hawkish tone of the FOMC Minutes was not immediately seen, we expect the effect to kick in and to drive the pair lower. For now we have another low created at 1.2090, which will act as support and target for today’s price action. If the pair moves above 1.2227 (1.2230), more bulls will probably join in and will take price higher; however, for the time being our bias remains bearish and moves north are regarded as retracements, not reversals.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech today, at a forum in Birmingham but the exact time of the event is not yet known. This is definitely an event that could spark volatility on Pound related pairs and the lack of information regarding the scheduled time makes it even more “dangerous”.

GDMFX

美指上压短暂承压，未来上涨大幅看好

>>一、日内基本面分析

    美国公布的就业市场数据出现回暖，美国上周初请失业金人数好于预期，维持在43年以来低点，这也是连续84周处于30万关口以下。美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国10月8日当周季调后初请失业金人数持平于24.6万人，已经连续84周维持在30万关口下方，预估为25.4万人，前值修正为24.6万人。良好的就业数据将会为美国加息带来基础，进而为美元指数回调带来支撑，压制黄金及白银的走势。

    近期美联储官员仍然不断发出加息的言论，美联储哈克表示，重申每次会议都有可能加息，自己在9月会议上支持加息，同时其指出，支持在今年年底前加息一次的观点，预计明年将加息至少两次，长期来看，美联储基金利率很可能在3%左右。然而市场已经对美联储官员的加息言论消化，美元指数出现高位回落，进而支撑了黄金及白银的表现。

     当下美国大选对市场影响非常重要，全球投资者都将目光集中在美国大选上，因为新总统将影响国内经济政策、国际问题以及金融市场稳定。如果特朗普上台则大多数人认为会引发黄金避险热潮，而其实希拉里上台的话其实也会存在刺激黄金上行的因素。但是市场的永远不是看结果而是看预期，所以大选的走向也会影响到各大商品市场的价格波动。而欧洲方面，英国可能“硬退欧”已经引发上周英镑暴跌，德意志银行股价暴跌使其违约可能大增，而且意大利银行又引发投资者焦虑，这些都将加剧欧洲银行系统风险，甚至引发金融危机。世界黄金协会的数据显示，今年二季度，黄金需求增加了15%，主要受央行购金和黄金ETFs基金的推动。目前金价仍处于回调之中，因美联储加息预期走强，以及全球其他央行收紧货币政策。据CME利率预测工具，美联储12月加息的概率达到了65.1%。综合来看，黄金将形成一个长期底部，将有150美元的上涨空间。因此几乎可以很明显的看出，正是有了这样的下跌才会为将来的上涨带来机会，我们相信这样的机会也不会太远。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

截止10月4日,英镑投机净空头增加9858份(或11%)至97572份。
金投机净多头减少46396份(或16%)至245508份
原油投机净多头增加71330份(或24%)至362976份

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：黄金已经震荡了四天，今天继续看震荡，昨天冲高1262回落，行情仍然处于1265之下弱势修正，周三下探1249开始，价格已经有些走平，所以这两天才有重新测试1265阻力的动作，不过昨天美盘反弹只到了1262，今天即使日线再小反弹突破1265的概率还是不高，依然建议高空黄金，点位方面没有太多要求，只要止损设置1265之上即可，相当于1260一线就可以入场，另外还是短线，区间前面已经给出了，1265-1250区域，这是今天的波动范围，现在1257位置，等反弹1260或之上做空；日内走势，黄金1261空，止损1266，目标1252。

Crude-Oil:有一定头部迹象，或者可能在酝酿，因为浪型已经走完了，当然在周一大涨的支撑下，昨天EIA数据利空，也没有下破周低点，反而下探回升将日线再度走好，但我个人不看好突破周高点50.5一带，今天是本周最后一个交易日，前面遇阻前高回落，昨天EIA数据下探回升，支撑和阻力都测试过了，今天看高位震荡就可以了，相当于周高点和低点都已经出来，那么操作上在这个基础上高空低多操作，不要在意日线是否收阳，这个与行情没有太大关系，与操作更无关，接下来以高空为主，在周高点50.5下方做空；日内走势，美国原油50.7空，止损51.2，目标49.8！

GDMFX每日操作简引

品   种              方  向       入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.1050          1.0900          1.1080
GBPUSD              空         1.2250          1.2110          1.2290
AUDUSD              空         0.7610          0.7500          0.7640  
USDJPY               多         102.60          102.30           103.20
XAUUSD              空         1262.0          1245.0          1266.0
XAGUSD              空         17.60           17.00           17.80
Crude-Oil             多         49.50           49.00            51.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒
  日期              时间         事件                                                              重要性                    前值       市场预测
10/14            20:30       美国9月零售销售月率                                        高                      -0.3%               0.6%  
10/14            20:30        美国9月核心零售销售月率                                中                       -0.1%               0.5%
10/14            22:00       美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值          高                        91.2               92  
10/14            22:00       美国8月商业库存月率                                        中                        0.0%              0.1%
10/14            20:30      美联储主席耶伦在波士顿联储举行的一场会议中发表讲话，波士顿联储主席罗森格伦为会议致欢迎词与发表开幕演说

GDMFX

加息预期再升,美元强金银弱

>>一、日内基本面分析

    美联储公布9月会议纪要显示，数名委员希望加息，或将在不久加息；数名委员认为9月决定按兵不动是一个平衡的决议；有投票权的委员指出，无论是9月加息还是等待更多的数据都是合理的；部分有投票权的委员认为，谨慎加息的做法有助于促进就业市场的复苏。部分有投票权的委员对声明中有关暂缓加息的措辞表示担忧。

　　风险方面，数名委员认为风险依旧偏向下行；大部分委员认为风险基本平衡；数名委员依旧认为海外存在下行风险。就业方面，很多委员认为劳动力市场依旧存在部分疲弱；一些委员认为在没有对劳动力市场施压的情况下，也存在增长空间。对于劳动力疲软的程度，委员们观点存在分歧。部分有投票权的联储委员认为，谨慎加息的做法能有助于就业市场进一步复苏。通胀方面，很多委员认为缺乏通胀压力的迹象；多位有投票权的联储决策者指出，通胀回升的速度缓慢。

    周五(10月14日)公布的数据显示，经过7月、8月的意外萎缩之后，美国9月零售销售反弹，单月增幅创下三个月以来的高位。根据美国商务部公布的数据，美国9月零售销售月率增长0.6%，预期增长0.6%，前值修正为下跌0.2%。数据出炉之后，美国9月零售销售月率有所反弹，主要受汽车购买量上涨和美国民众可自由支配的开支上升所推动，表明美国国内消费需求仍强劲，这加强了美联储将在12月加息的预期，暗示美国第三季度经济增速或恢复动能。

    美国劳工部日内同一时间公布了9月生产者物价指数(PPI)报告。作为通胀的前瞻指标之一，美国9月PPI月率增长0.3%，年率增长0.7%，创下自2014年12月以来的最大增幅。美国9月PPI月率增幅超过预期，主要受能源产品及其他商品成本上涨所推动，其中9月能源价格环比上涨2.5%，加上美元走强的影响变弱，足以支撑通胀将上行的观点。

    英国则由上周英国政府宣布退欧进程时间表且英国首相表态偏向于硬退欧开始再度吸引全球目光，而市场的忧虑自上周五英镑意外“闪崩”后更加白热化。英镑在本周虽然有所回升，但仍在低位徘徊。英国政府周三宣布在退欧问题上“兼听则明”，接受议会审核。英国首相梅也在之后的议会首相答问中承诺最大可能地保有进入欧盟单一市场的入口。但英国政府内的退欧派对控制移民的坚持以及对单一市场入口的傲慢态度令各界担忧不已。

　　欧盟方面也在这一问题上于本周火上浇油，欧盟理事会主席图斯克警告英国政府“硬退欧”(为求控制移民不惜牺牲欧盟单一市场入口)是他们唯一的选择。法国财政部长米歇尔·萨潘(Michel Sapin)则表示，一些美国银行告知他，将因退欧公投转移在英国的部分活动。直至明年3月份英国正式启动退欧进程，以及之后两年(如无拖延)的退欧谈判中，这种争论不休的局面料将不断，由此令英国退欧造成经济受到严重打击的风险将长期悬于市场上空。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

截止10月11日,ICE美元指数投机净多头增加21449份(或177%)至33549份。
截止10月11日,欧元投机净空头增加11413份(或14%)至93472份。
截止10月11日,黄金投机净多头减少50289份(或20%)至195219份。

>>三、交易策略

XAUUSD：黄金上周低位震荡走势，算是对前面下跌的修正，周线压制下，并且是走大周期调整，期间可以反复，但最后目标肯定要到位，这个目标我说了是1215一带，短线方面，在前一周周评就说有两个阻力点，分别是1265的非农高点，和1277的下跌后二次反弹小高点，上周行情遇阻1265走慢回落，周五反弹1259还是回落，这样的行情我们就不考虑1277了，1265现在都费劲，所以这周操作上依然在1265之下做空，至少先看回落到1241前期低点一带再说，短线在周五1259的高点之下空，说不定行情一高兴直接飞流直下三千尺；日内走势，黄金1254空，止损1259，目标1242-45。

Crude-Oil:短期还有高位震荡过程，中期我认为要展开调整了，长期就要根据基本面走了，从42.7开始的上升到上周暴涨51.6前高一线，已经有了完整的上升浪，意味着要调整随时都可以，上周一暴涨前高，一度有突破迹象，不过这样的走势突不突破参考意义不太大，突破了也可以跌，不突破蓄势之后可以涨，现在是没破，后面几天走势对多头不利，EIA数据差点直接就破周一低点了，最后拉升但周五回落的幅度又不小，总的来说多头有风险，EIA数据之所以没直接下，还在于周一暴涨日线支撑强，由多转空需要一定时间，那么这周高位震荡酝酿之后将重新选方向，我个人倾向于看空，应该有机会调整到47-48区域；日内走势，美国原油50.8空，止损51.3，目标49.5、48！

GDMFX每日操作简引
品   种           方  向         入场区域          支撑位          压力位  
EURUSD              空         1.0990          1.0850          1.1030
GBPUSD              空         1.2180          1.2010          1.2220
AUDUSD              空         0.7610          0.7500          0.7640  
USDJPY               多         103.80          103.50           105.20
XAUUSD              空         1255.0          1235.0          1260.0
XAGUSD              空         17.60           17.00           17.80
Crude-Oil             多         49.50           49.00            51.70  

>>四、日内消息提醒

  日期              时间         事件                                                      重要性                   前值       市场预测
10/17            17:00    欧元区9月消费者物价指数年率终值               中                     0.2%                0.4%  
10/17            17:00    欧元区9月核心消费者物价指数年率终值        中                     0.8%                0.8%
10/17            21:15     美国9月制造业生产月率                               中                     -0.4%                0.1%  
10/17            21:15    美国9月工业生产月率                                   中                     -0.4%               0.2%

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: U.S. AND U.K CPI RELEASES GUARANTEE VOLATILITY ON POUND AND US DOLLAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Final version of the European CPI matched analysts’ expectations, thus the event didn’t bring a lot of volatility. Yesterday’s session belonged to the bulls but overall the picture is still bearish.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair climbed back above 1.0985, without touching the support at 1.0955 but our bias remains bearish, anticipating a touch of the mentioned support. The oscillators are still close to oversold so the current move up might extend further but we don’t expect a touch of 1.1060 resistance unless surprising developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event for the pair is the release of the United States Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The CPI shows changes in the price paid by consumers for the products they purchase and is considered the main gauge of inflation. Higher numbers than the forecast 0.3% (previous 0.2%), usually strengthen the US Dollar. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the CPI (excludes food and energy from calculation), released at the same time and expected to show a 0.2% change.


GBP/USD

The pair had a very slow yesterday, mostly due to the lack of economic releases. Price remained inside the horizontal channel and movement was mostly sideways.

Technical Outlook

Price is squeezing inside the horizontal channel created by 1.2325 resistance and 1.2090 support and lacks direction from a short term perspective. Usually a strong breakout follows after a period of low volatility and sideways movement but the direction is hard to anticipate. We recommend caution if trading any Pound related pairs.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s direction is likely to be determined by the release of the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. As mentioned before, the CPI is the main gauge of inflation, thus higher numbers than today’s forecast 0.9% (previous 0.6%) will most likely strengthen the Pound.