玩股票的技巧

arno

大家知道有何玩股票的技巧来分享一下吧.

这里有一个我觉得很不错,从报纸看到的: AVERAGING UP AND DOWN

arno

Most investors agree that price averaging is a good idea. Dollar-cost-averaging is perhaps the most common appraoch, which simply involves making regular (usually monthly from your paycheck savings) purchases of a set of portfolio stocks or a unit trust. But more interesting strategic applications are referred to as averaging down and averaging up on a particular stocks that is experiencing a price fall or price rise.
Averaging Down
When faced with a dropping share price, when the longer-term outlook is believed favorable, you will look very wise in years to come if you purchase more shares while they are discounted-- a process called 'averaging down' because with each purchase at lower prices your 'average cost' will be a bit lower (and your eventual return a bit higher if things go well).
However, some additional market sayings come to mind as you average down-- sayings like 'throwing good money after bad', and 'trying to catch a falling knife is likely to be painful'. The problem with averging down is that you never know where the bottom will be on a falling stock price, especially if the price is falling due to poor fundamental performance or heightened uncertainty due to real and dangerous issues. Even when averaging down is an intelligent approach, few investors seem to have the discipline to continue buying regularly as the price persistently falls. Continuing to buy against the crowd becomes psychologically more and more difficult as doubt creeps into your mind. Averaging down requires an unusual amount of self-confidence and independent thinking.
Averaging Up
Like averaging down, averaging up involves making regular purchases of a 'winner' stock as its stock price rises higher and higher-- thus raising your average purchase price with every new purchase. This strategy will lower your eventual return on a percentage basis, but can enhance your dollar gains by steadily increasing your stake in a good business over time as your funds allow. It is also more psychologically pleasant because your purchases are in line with the crowd's opinion and you see your portfolio value steadily rising.
With either strategy-- averaging up or down-- there is always a nearly irresistible temptation to chart the stock price and attempt to time your purchases. Centuries of data point to the fact that such market timing strategies don't work, so a wise investor will resist the temptation and stick to more reliable aspects of a business that can be measured-- earnings, profit margins, Returns on Equity, and Discounted Cash Flow valuations (intrinsic value), for example. When what you buy is the primary focus, when you buy becomes a bit less important. Averaging up or down is best done with discipline-- the discipline to either make regular purchases to dollar-cost-average, or the discipline to purchase whenever the market offers a bargain on the basis of price significantly below calculated intrinsic value, while all business fundamentals remain on track.