【专题讨论】Top Glove, Supermax与Kossan, 三国鼎立?

Mr.Business

原帖由 pya_ch 于 5-10-2007 06:48 PM 发表
今天看了商海的一篇文章,
其中作者提到大马手套业的情况,
他说,顶级以量取胜,利用产量优势大打价格战,
高产则是历史悠久根深蒂固,
速柏玛则是超级马,虽然数量不及对手,
不过在品牌创造和高档市场很吃得开, ...

今天我去逛书局，也买了这份"商海"。其实我也对这"三国鼎立"很有兴趣，大家可以讨论讨论。。。

Mr.Business

Top glove的股价已经最低点了吗？

Mr.Business

原帖由 chengyk 于 10-10-2007 05:29 PM 发表
"顶级手套在过去几年的规模不断扩大，料很难再回到辉煌时代30％至40％的增长率"

顶级不能扩大， 难道 Supermx 和 Kossan 就能??? 她们同在手套业了，难道顶级不
能增产高级手套????

如果她们在不同的行业里，我还觉得有点可能。。。如果手套业真的缓慢，难道 Supermx
和 Kossan 没影响???

原帖由 pya_ch 于 10-10-2007 06:21 PM 发表
巴菲特说我们应该远离所谓的专家,
他们的评论很多时候是自相矛盾的,
所以关注企业的经营才是王道,
想不到这样都被你发现,好眼力   

你们似乎误会分析员的意思了。
"KAF西金的分析员指出，顶级手套在过去几年的规模不断扩大，料很难再回到辉煌时代30％至40％的增长率，反观小公司速伯玛及高产尼品却有很大的增长潜能。"

顶级手套在2007财政年的revenue是RM1,228million；
高产尼品在2006财政年的revenue是RM573million；
速伯玛在2006财政年的revenue是RM389million。

速伯玛及高产尼品的revenue比较小，自然增长潜能会较大，分析员根本不是在讲手套业缓慢。

pya_ch

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 21-10-2007 03:26 AM 发表





你们似乎误会分析员的意思了。
"KAF西金的分析员指出，顶级手套在过去几年的规模不断扩大，料很难再回到辉煌时代30％至40％的增长率，反观小公司速伯玛及高产尼品却有很大的增长潜能。"

顶级手套 ...

其实我同意chengyk的看法,
我们应该宏观的看待问题,
看的应该是手套业的增长,
而不是只看莫莫公司的增长,
顶级在今年被分析试看低一线,
并被评收住,
但是它的净利还是达到了30%的成长,
什么叫守住?
看看8k的旧帖,
也许可以为大家解答一下


2001-03-19 分 析 员 的 “HOLD ”就 是 叫 你 卖 ！

致 ： HARIMAU

分 析 员 的 报 告 我 看 得 多 了 ， 如 果 他 建 议 你 “HOLD ”， 表 面 上 是 叫 你 守 住 ， 其 实 他 真 正 的 意 思 就 是 叫 你 卖 。

很 少 分 析 员 敢 建 议 “SELL”， 因 为 怕 得 罪 有 关 公 司 。 如 果 只 为 了 一 个 “SELL” 的 建 议 就 跑 掉 一 个 大 顾 客 ， 搞 不 好 老 板 会 请 分 析 员 “ 另 谋 高 就” 。

所 以 分 析 员 通 常 只 是 建 议 “BUY” 和“HOLD”。
BUY 就 是 快 点 买 。
HOLD 就 是 快 点 卖 。

当 然 也 有 分 析 员 敢 建 议“SELL”。 他 们 通 常 是 新 成 立 的 独 立 股 票 分 析 公 司 。 例 如 ：Malaysiastreet.com
因 为 是 新 成 立 的 关 系 所 以 作 风 就 比 较 大 胆 ， 要 不 然 怎 样 能 引 起 人 家 的 注 意 ！
这 是 收 费 的 网 站 ， 它 的 分 析 员 都 是 大 有 来 头 的 专 家 。有 兴 趣 成 为 会 员 的 可 以 联 络 他 们 。

相 比 之 下 CARI 的 理 财 论 坛 是 免 费 的 ， 所 以 只 是 一 般 股 友 聊 天 的 地 方 。
这 里 没 有 专 家 ， 因 为 专 家 写 稿 是 要 收 费 的 。
所 以 我 们 在 这 里 读 到 的 东 西 不 必 太 认 真 。

闲 话 休 提 ， 言 归 正 传 。

最 近 有 许 多 分 析 员 建 议 “HOLD” 住 EON ， 其 中 有 一 个 建 议 “SELL” ， 它 就 是 Malaysiastreet.com 。
它 在 8/2/2001 的 HOT TIP 里 建 议 投 资 者 卖 出 EON 。 听 清 楚 ， 它 的 建 议 是“SELL” 不 是“HOLD”。 够 大 胆 了 吧 ！
当 时 EON 的 价 钱 是 8.00 零 吉 。

它 持 悲 观 的 理 由 主 要 是 因 为 它 不 看 好 EON 可 以 从经 销 权 合 约 里 取 得 好 处 因 为 这 合 约 是 付 有 附 加 条 件 的 。 他 认 为 EON 将 因 此 要 付 出 昂 贵 的 代 价 才 能 取 得 PROTON 汽 车 的 经 销 权 。

你 好 像 也 读 过 了 那 篇 报 告 ， 因 为 从 你 的 言 谈 中 也 带 有 那 悲 观 的 看 法 。 你 认 为 尘 埃 落 定 后 EON 的 股 价 将 会 下 跌 到 4.50 零 吉 。 那 可 是 2.13 的 本 益 比 呀 ！

我 可 是 蛮 乐 观 的 ， 理 由 很 简 单 。因 为 EON 的 谈 判 对 手 是 PROTON ， 也 就 是 PETRONAS 。
谁 都 知 道 现 在 的 PROTON 是 PETRONAS 控 制 的 。
当 然 很 多 人 也 都 知 道 EON 是DRB－HICOM 控 制 的 。

每 个 人 都 知 道 PETRONAS 是 我 国 企 业 界 的 大 好 人 。 谁 遇 到 大 困 难 找 他 ， 他 都 很 乐 意 帮 人 。

现 在 DRB－HICOM 才 从 困 境 里 爬 出 来 ，PETRONAS 这 个 大 好 人 扶 他 都 来 不 及 了 ， 那 里 舍 得 给 它 辛 苦 。

圣 诞 老 人 就 是 圣 诞 老 人 ， 它 是 不 会 变 成 强 盗 的 。

顺 便 讲 个 故 事 给 你 听 ：
我 家 附 近 有 间 电 器 商 ， 专 卖 日 本 电 器 。 最 近 他 的 老 板 看 到 中 国 的 电 器 太 便 宜 了 ， 一 个VCD 机 成 本 才55 零 吉 ， 竟 然 可 以 卖180 零 吉。 所 以 也 想 卖 一 卖 。 就 把 现 在 的 三 间 店 屋 隔 出 一 间 ， 专 卖 中 国 的 电 器 。
日 本 电 器 商 看 到 不 妙 就 来 询 问 ， 老 板 就 跟 他 讲 ： “那 间 店 是 我 媳 妇 的 表 哥 开 的 。 那 种 生 意 怎 样 能 赚 钱 ？不 要 紧 店 屋 是 我 的 ， 我 即 刻 起 她 的 屋 租 ， 让 她 顶 不 住 ， 早 日 关 门 大 吉 。 我 再 收 回 来 卖 你 的 日 本 电 器 。”

故 事 就 到 此 为 止 。

让 我 们 再 回 来 看 看 EON 的 股 票 持 有 人 。
现 在 他 们 应 该 怎 样 做 ？

大 多 数 的 分 析 员 都 叫 我 们 “HOLD”。 怎 么 办 ？

股 神 BUFFETT 曾 经 讲 过 一 个 故 事 ：

如 果 你 是 经 营 农 场 的 生 意 。 最 近 你 隔 壁 的 一 个 农 场 想 出 卖 ， 你 知 道 它 的 价 值 是10 万 ， 他 的 主 人 竟 然 只 想 用 5 万 的 价 钱 出 让 。
如 果 你 有 钱 你 就 会 把 它 买 下 来 。
如 果 你 没 有 钱 你 就 只 好 眼 瞪 瞪 的 看 别 人 买 去 。
你 不 会 去 买 十 份 分 析 报 告 ， 看 看 专 家 们 怎 样 讲 。

loong81

那分析员建议hold住topglove，岂不是等于。。。。。

Mr.Business

顶级手套在2007财政年 (31/08/2007结束)的revenue是RM1,228million；Net Profit是RM103million;  EPS是35.55sen。

顶级手套的市价是RM6.40, 所以PE是18。

速伯玛在2006财政年 (31/12/2006结束)的revenue是RM389million；Net Profit是RM41million;  EPS是18sen。

速伯玛的市价是RM2.15, 所以PE是11.9。

截止30/06/2007, 速伯玛的revenue是RM245million；Net Profit是RM28.32million;  EPS是12.48sen, PE是8.6 [215／(12.48x2)]。

chengyk

蛋糕已经被 topglove 吃去一半了，剩下一半留给 supermax 和 kossan 吃。。。如
果以红海来形容手套业，topglove 就像是"王"。。。

那问题就来了，我比较有兴趣谁可先去蓝海。。。我觉得林博士的机会最高。。。

Mr.Business

我没有研究，倒是没意见。

不如我们来讨论顶级手套和速伯玛，谁的管理层比较强比较有远见？

chengyk

supermax 和 topglove 都能保持一定的增长率。。。其实，两个管理层都很好。在控制成本方面做得很出色，就连橡胶的价格偏高，也影
响不到他们。。。

我觉得林博士野心比较大，他有称霸世界的 野心，而且他做到。相比，陈先生就比较逊色，从他的年报里，我看
不出他有爬过topglove 得野心。。。

[ 本帖最后由 chengyk 于 22-10-2007 12:13 PM 编辑 ]

pya_ch

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 22-10-2007 11:40 AM 发表
我没有研究，倒是没意见。

不如我们来讨论顶级手套和速伯玛，谁的管理层比较强比较有远见？

我会尝试尽量解释为什么我会买进某某股项,
就好像最近为女友买进的顶级手套,
因为它购买胶园的举动,
让我觉得它的管理层是深谋远虑的,
让我看到了一代晋商乔致庸的风范,
与其只跟人家买茶贩茶,
倒不如物色条件相似的地点,
自己买山种茶,
恰逢市场消息困扰着它,
提供了我一个买进的机会,
所以就当即买下了


这是之前在旧贴的发表,
算是我目前为止的看法吧

[ 本帖最后由 pya_ch 于 22-10-2007 02:36 PM 编辑 ]

pya_ch

原帖由 chengyk 于 22-10-2007 12:08 PM 发表
supermax 和 topglove 都能保持一定的增长率。。。其实，两个管理层都很好。在控制成本方面做得很出色，就连橡胶的价格偏高，也影
响不到他们。。。

我觉得林博士野心比较大，他有称霸世界的 野心，而且他做 ...

可是商海的专题作者就说了,
当初他访问的时候,
郑老板在回答他的问题的时候说到,
他的目标是要将supermax带到世界之巅,
成为最大的手套厂,
只怕他是拌猪吃老虎
以本益比而言,supermax是占优的,
以07年的数据而言,
supermax仍是占优的

Mr.Business

新闻。

頂級手套減產，高產尼品擴充　膠手套業者前景各異

Updated : 15-09-2007
Media : 東方日報

（吉隆坡15日訊）正當身為膠手套領域龍頭的頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業股）縮小其擴充計劃之際，高產尼品（KOSSAN,7153,主板工業股）卻高姿態積極展開擴充計劃，使得兩家膠手套業者的業務前景形成強烈對比。

基于中國的醫療手套（Vinyl gloves）市場出現供應過剩情況，加上原油價格飆升，導致原料成本高漲，頂級手套宣布縮小其廠房容積擴充計劃，從原本的500億只手套，減少至440億只手套。

在頂級手套縮小擴充計劃之際，高產尼品卻積極擴充產能容積，並計劃在11月份增加另外14條生產線，使得這兩家膠手套公司的前景，形成強烈對比。

艾芬投資銀行分析員指出，醫療手套的生產並不需要太多專業科技與知識，因此，該市場的進場門檻偏低。大量製造業者湧入市場，導致中國的醫療手套市場供應過剩，加上製造商之間價格競爭激烈，生產成本走高，促使該市場的盈利賺幅面對下滑壓力。

在競爭激烈的情況下，進一步拖慢了頂級手套在中國廠房轉虧為盈的進度。該廠房在07財政年首9個月繼續蒙受550萬令吉稅前虧損，主要受到供應過剩與原油價格高漲的衝擊。這也促使頂級手套將位于中國新華廠房的生產線，從40條大幅減少至8條。

分析員相信，在原油繼續高企之下，相信該公司在中國的業務，在08財政年將繼續蒙受虧損。

為此，分析員將該公司在07至09財政年的淨利預測下調11至14%，以反映出該公司縮減廠房擴充計劃的影響。同時，分析員也將投資評估從「買入」下修至「減持」，目標價位從10.40令吉，大幅下調至6.15令吉。聯昌國際投資銀行分析員，也基于頂級手套放緩廠房擴充計劃，加上中國廠房虧損大于預期，而將07至09財政年的盈利預測下調7至16%，並把目標價位從11.50令吉，下修至8.65令吉。

反觀高產尼品，憑著積極擴充廠房的行動，有效的生產效率，加上在高檔無粉手套市場中，建立了自己的地位，使得該公司的前景備受看好。

艾芬投資銀行分析員表示，隨著現有廠房容積已幾乎全面運作，高產尼品計劃在11月增加另外14條生產線，以便將產能容積提升至110億只手套。

分析員預期，在增添新生產線的情況下，該公司在08財政年的淨利，有望上揚33%，達到6890萬令吉的水平。此外，該公司也成功在無粉手套市場站穩腳步，成為全球最大的生產商，也為該公司的業務前景加分。基于更強穩的盈利成長動力與可見度，分析員保持「買入」該股建議，並將目標價位從6.03令吉，上調至 7.25令吉。

http://www.biznewsdb.com/chinese ... n=09&kw=topglov

Mr.Business

Top Glove和Supermax的恩怨。

Top Glove and Supermax jostle for dominance

Updated : 19-02-2005
Media : The Star
Story By : ERROL OH

FOR those brimming with the spirit of Malaysia Boleh, the idea of two local companies vying for the No.1 position in a global industry must be thrilling. That was why Supermax Corp Bhd made the business headlines when it recently gained control of another Malaysian glovemaker, APL Industries Bhd (APLI).

Supermax claims that the acquisition has made it the largest manufacturer of latex examination gloves in Malaysia and the world (Malaysia being the leading rubber glove exporter). If that was true, Supermax had knocked off Top Glove Corp Bhd from the top spot.

However, Top Glove has something to say about that. It insists that it is still ahead of Supermax and APLI put together, in terms of revenue and production capacity.

For the casual observer here, it may not matter much which company is indeed the industry leader. After all, both the No.1 and the No.2 are Malaysian companies. However, there is another facet to this development. It is the latest chapter in the story of one of corporate Malaysia's fiercest business rivalries.

Jostling for market dominance is common everywhere, but the competition between these two companies is particularly intriguing because they are similar in many ways and yet have striking differences. Both are headed by men with strong personalities and abilities.

In addition, the companies make no attempt to hide the fact that they are locked in a fast-paced, head-to-head contest. Neither is about to blink. At times, the moves of one company appear to be in response to those of the other.

For example, when Supermax announced its acquisition of a 12.9% stake in APLI on Feb 3, Top Glove sent out a statement four days later, complete with figures compiled from the latest quarterly results, to argue that Top Glove ¡§still maintains its position as Malaysia's and the world's largest glove manufacturer¡¨.

(Supermax says it and APLI will have a total capacity of 17.78 billion pieces of gloves when all their new production lines are fully commissioned next year. This is the basis of its assertion that it is the No.1 manufacturer. Top Glove points out that based on current figures, its capacity of 11.7 billion pieces remains the highest by far, and the company has plans for additional operating lines.)

Top Glove executive chairman and chief executive officer Datuk Dr Lim Wee-Chai tells BizWeek that his company was merely setting the record straight.

When asked why it is important to lay claim to the top manufacturer spot, he says, ¡§It's not just about making a claim. For us, performance is the No.1 priority, and that means showing that you have continuous growth. You must have the facts and figures, and the track record to back it up.¡¨

That may be so, but others feel that ownership of the top position in the industry translates into a bigger bottom line.

Says an analyst, ¡§It's a volume game. In this industry, sales figures are crucial because the margins are not that good. Being No.1 translates into having a larger market share and thus, a higher turnover.¡¨

Supermax shifts gear
¡§The race to the market leader position has intensified!¡¨ declares TA Securities in a research report earlier this month. Few industry observers would dispute that.

Some analysts feel that the Top Glove-Supermax rivalry had been overhyped in the past. The argument back then was that they had distinct business models and were going after different market segments. If at all they were in direct competition, it was chiefly a fight for the attention of the investors.

Prior to the APLI acquisition, Supermax was largely an OBM (original brand manufacturing) player. About 70% of its business revolved around producing gloves under its own brands such as Aurelia and Maxter. It was up against multinationals such as Ansell and Kimberly Clark.

On the other hand, Top Glove is very much in the OEM (original equipment manufacturing) segment. In fact, companies like Kimberly Clark outsource their manufacturing function to Top Glove.

With Supermax now able to lean on APLI's capacity and predominantly OEM business (90% of its output), the line separating Supermax and Top Glove is fading.

¡§Now, thing are really starting to heat up. By taking control of APLI, Supermax is signalling that it is ready to invade Top Glove's territory,¡¨ says an analyst who covers all three companies.

Supermax group managing director Stanley Thai took over as APLI CEO last Tuesday. He is expected to drive APLI's expansion programme even faster that as planned by APLI's previous management.

Most analysts who track Supermax are positive about the APLI buy because it will lead to a huge jump in capacity without significantly stretching Supermax's balance sheet. At the end of 2004, Supermax was producing about 7.1 billion pieces of gloves.

Right now, capacity building is a cornerstone of the Malaysian glove manufacturing industry. After going through a consolidation phase several years ago that saw the exit of many weaker players, the industry has been experiencing steady growth.

Global demand for disposable gloves is expected to swell by 8% to 10% over the next three years ¡V some people say it has already exceeded this rate ¡V and manufacturers are scrambling to meet orders.

With APLI in its stable, Supermax instantly gets a larger presence in the OEM market. At the same time, it can continue to focus on pushing its brands forward. APLI has three plants in Malaysia and another in Vietnam. Supermax has six plants, all in Malaysia.

Top Glove's Lim does not view the Supermax-APLI tie-up as a great threat. He explains, ¡§We are more familiar with the OEM business. When you're in the OBM segment, you're competing with the other brands, some of whom are also your OEM customers. And they may not like that.¡¨

Clash of personalities?
Interestingly, Lim says Top Glove was offered a stake in APLI just before the Chinese New Year. ¡§We studied the proposal for two weeks before deciding that it's better for us to invest in new factories and machinery in Malaysia, where we can have better control,¡¨ he adds.

However, Thai of Supermax was quoted as saying the APLI shares had been offered for sale in December and the parties had negotiated discreetly. BizWeek could not reach Thai for comments.

There may well be a perfectly reasonable explanation for this apparent contradiction, but it does underscore the fact that Top Glove and Supermax will again and again come up against each other because of their heft in the Malaysian glove making industry.

And because both companies are very much entrepreneur-driven, some observers believe that there is a personal dimension to the rivalry between Supermax and Top Glove.

Says an analyst, ¡§Both men have done a great job with their companies. They are aggressive and visionary, and have strong marketing skills. Thai is perhaps outspoken, while Lim tends to be more quiet, but both are equally driven. And both started in the industry around the same time.¡¨

Supermax was the first to be listed on the second board. It made its stock exchange debut in August 2000 and Top Glove followed seven months later. However, Top Glove made an earlier move to the main board in May 2002. Supermax's transfer was in October 2003.

The Top Glove-Supermax rivalry extends to the courtroom. The companies' quarterly reports contain several paragraphs detailing litigation between them.

This stems from an action by a Supermax subsidiary against a Top Glove subsidiary in relation to an allegation that the latter passed off gloves manufactured by the former, under a different brand.

People who know both Lim and Thai say they are definitely not bosom buddies. Lim, however, says the competition between the companies is all about business. ¡§It's based on healthy competition. We do our best, and in the long run, that's all that matters. It's not our style to get personal.¡¨

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 22-10-2007 04:16 PM 编辑 ]

chengyk

我没看到，是不是最新的商海???

pya_ch

原帖由 chengyk 于 22-10-2007 04:18 PM 发表
我没看到，是不是最新的商海???

对,封面是郑老大的大特写
对了,business兄,
能大概说说你的那篇英文帖在说什么吗

chengyk

将长的文章，很难说给你听。。。

大概是，supermax 和 topglove 争做手套业的龙头。supermax 一心靠收购 APLI
来提高生产，不过 topglove 更本不把她放在眼里。Topglove 看死 supermax 没办
法抢走他的 OEM 生意。supermax 主攻 OBM。

我喜欢这一段

Top Glove's Lim does not view the Supermax-APLI tie-up as a great threat.
He explains, ü0ā3§We are more familiar with the OEM business. When you're
in the OBM segment, you're competing with the other brands, some of whom
are also your OEM customers. And they may not like that.ü0ā3¨

Google 翻译

       
顶级手套的廉并不认为速-斯搭了一个很大的威胁。
他解释道， u0_3 §我们较为熟悉的oem业务。当你
在自创品牌生产部分，你有竞争关系的其他品牌，其中有些人
也是你的代工客户。他们可能不喜欢这

Mr.Business

Supermax的故事。

Integration pains

Updated : 05-08-2006
Media : The Star
Story By : ERROL OH

SUPERMAX Corp Bhd is in danger of becoming a case study for the pitfalls of mergers and acquisitions. Its management takeover of fellow listed rubber glove manufacturers APL Industries Bhd (APLI) and Seal Polymer Industries Bhd was among last year's biggest business stories, but people are beginning to wonder if the pains of integration will outweigh the benefits.

APLI is bleeding and its Vietnam plant ¨the key reason for Supermax's entry¨ has yet to go into full swing because of operational difficulties.

In comparison, it was widely thought that Seal Polymer would settle in smoothly at the Supermax stable. Yet, last Monday, the former announced that its net profit for the financial year ended February 2006 (FY06) had been slashed by almost half after its accounts had been audited.

Instead of the RM21.8mil as per the unaudited fourth-quarter results released last April, Seal Polymer's FY06 net profit has been restated to RM11.7mil, which is a 40% drop from the previous year's figure. The bulk of the variance was traced to raw materials, utilities and depreciation that had not been taken up previously.

In its announcement through Bursa Malaysia, the company says the deviation between the audited and the unaudited figures was mainly due to disruptive changes in the accounts personnel and the accounting system. It adds that its finance department was relocated to the corporate office in Sungai Buloh, Selangor, in June.

Even before last Monday's announcement, there had been signs that Seal Polymer's FY06 accounts would not be a glowing report card. The company missed the June 30 deadline for the submission of its audited accounts. Its application to the stock exchange for an extension of time was turned down, as was the subsequent appeal.

The accounts were finally filed with Bursa Malaysia last Monday. And as provided under the exchange's listing requirements, Seal Polymer had to explain the significant difference between the audited and unaudited net profit.

The last shocker?

In a research note issued last Wednesday, TA Securities says, "We are rather disappointed with the latest development as we believe that this incident was within the purview of management. It is our hope that this will prove to be a one-off event, as any other disappointing news could severely affect sentiment towards the share price of the stock."

Indeed, Seal Polymer board of directors have a lot of explaining to do when they meet shareholders at the annual general meeting on Aug 28.

For starters, there will be questions as to why it took so long for the new management team to uncover the accounting discrepancies at Seal Polymer when it had come on board in May, immediately after Supermax had bought a 17% stake.

Seal Polymer managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai, who also heads Supermax and APLI, says the issues over accounting treatment and practices surfaced after the external auditors, Deloitte KassimChan, had been called in subsequent to the financial year-end.

Thai explains that the priority when Supermax assumed management control of Seal Polymer was to grow Seal Polymer's business by increasing capacity and strengthening the customer base.

That meant spending a lot of time on accelerating the expansion of Seal Polymer's factory in Taiping. At the same time, the management had been looking at operational areas such as integrating the work culture and the people.

"By the time we were ready to look into the bookkeeping and accounting matters, it was already the last leg of the streamlining exercise at Seal Polymer. It was also time for the year-end audit and we decided to do these together. It was the first audit under the new management," he adds.

Thai says the deviation is a one-off thing and maintains that the integration of Seal Polymer is on track. For example, he points out, Seal Polymer no longer undertakes trading activities which offered low margins.

The company now focuses on manufacturing, whose revenue in FY06 had grown by 28%, mainly driven by the commissioning of new production lines since the management takeover.

He adds that the lower profit was largely due to higher raw material costs, an increase in the Taiping plant's pre-operating expenses and higher depreciation.

Still the right thing to do

The fretting over whether the acquisitions of the two associates will work out has been blamed for the pummelling that Supermax shares have taken in past six months. After hitting this year's high of RM3.88 on Feb 15, the stock has slid by 28%. In the same period, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index inched up 0.9%.

Last Thursday, the counter closed at RM2.78, the lowest it has gone this year. Most of the analysts covering Supermax reckon that there is little downside to its share price right now (unless, of course, the shocks keep coming).

It is also fortunate that Seal Polymer and APLI do not yet have much of an impact on Supermax's bottom line. According to a CIMB Securities report last week, the two associates account for only 8% to 12% of their parent company's earnings per share. In addition, Supermax itself has no major problems to report.

Given these factors, at least three investment outfits have maintained buy calls on Supermax following the Seal Polymer announcement. But that does not mean they are untroubled by the bad news from Seal Polymer and APLI. Furthermore, there is the perception that Supermax had been hasty in investing in the two companies.

Says CIMB: ¡°We are disappointed with these latest developments at APLI and Seal Polymer. In hindsight, some of these problems could have been anticipated or even avoided if Supermax had performed a full due diligence before acquiring stakes in both companies.

¡°We have in the past expressed our reservations on this issue. Unfortunately, Supermax¡¯s oversight in conducting a full diligence on both acquisitions has come back to haunt it.¡±

Thai denies that Supermax had not done its homework before doing the APLI and Seal Polymer deals. He says: ¡°We have invested in the two public companies just like any other investor. We have conducted due diligence exercises through whatever public information the companies had released. We have done it.

¡°With APLI , we knew it had problems, but we didn't anticipate the magnitude of those problems.¡±

He maintains that the acquisitions are good moves that are meant to establish a group with the size, capacity and product range that can make it the strongest player in the industry.

He says: ¡°I know people perceive that we have made the wrong investments, but business-wise, we have grown the companies. Supermax alone does not have the capacity to do a lot more business than that of our own brands. By combining the capacities of the three companies, we can accept orders from large, quality clients.

¡°We have been able to move to the forefront of the industry by entering market segments that we had not been strong in.¡±

That may be so, but observers are also concerned that Supermax may pay too much to increase its holdings in APLI and Seal Polymer. Supermax has a 12.9% stake in APLI (acquired in February last year) and 23.9% in Seal Polymer. Previously, Supermax had options to buy another 7.2% in APLI. However, the price was way above the current market price and the options have since lapsed.

At one time, Supermax was ready to announce its plan, codenamed Project Panther, to merge with Seal Polymer. However, this was called off, and on June 8, Seal Polymer announced that an ad-hoc merger committee has been formed to ¡°explore all available options and the viability of the proposals to maximise shareholders' value¡±.

Thai explains: ¡°We want to look at other options that we might have overlooked. There is no timeframe for us to come up with a decision. Much of it is subject to market conditions. Supermax and Seal Polymer are still operating as separate companies.¡±

Whether these three companies operate independently or not, the market already views them as interlinked. Any more jolts from either one will be felt throughout the group, and that is the last thing Thai and his team need while they continue to reshape the enlarged group.

http://www.biznewsdb.com/english/newspage/newspage1.asp?ID=6080516&file1=6&bulan=08&kw=supermax

Mr.Business

油價膠價飆新高,成本壓力大　市場唱淡膠手套股

Updated : 20-09-2007
Media : 東方日報
Story By : 何開玄

（吉隆坡20日訊）隨著原油價格不斷飆漲，乳膠價格在替代原料效應的推動下，也抵達新高水平，令國內膠手套商開始感受到成本揚升的壓力。

同時，國內氣體價格即將調升，膠手套業者也可能承受更高成本。

分析員預料， 業者將會把成本轉嫁給客戶， 增加使用生物量鍋爐（biomassboiler），以降低所受的衝擊。

無論如何，分析員仍建議「減持」該領域和「沽售」主要的膠手套股。

分析員表示，大馬的乳膠價格自6月份以來走高至最高水平，主要因為油價高漲，輪胎製造商都選擇天然膠，來取代綜合原料。

他們對乳膠價格在今年來的走高動力，並不表驚訝。第4季多雨的天氣，導致乳膠的生產受影響，不過，與過往情況不同的是，這次乳膠走高，主要還是因為原油價大漲所帶動。油價和膠價的互動關聯性達90%。

不過，乳膠價格的走高，對手套製造商的影響屬于中和。手套製造商通常會把70%至100%的額外乳膠成本，轉嫁給客戶。手套製造商的研發活動，也將逐漸減少對乳膠的依賴。

天然氣漲價短期影響料不大

此外，分析員認為，天然氣價格調高，對于手套製造商的短期影響料不大。手套公司都準備提高使用生物量鍋爐，以節省燃油成本。

而且，通常在調高天然氣的首6個月，國家能源需要吸納所有的價格漲幅，直到政府決定新的價格架構。因此，他不認為這會對手套製造商07年全年和08年大部份時期的盈利造成太顯著的衝擊，胥視氣體價格調升的時機。

不過，分析員維持手套領域「減持」的評級，並給予頂級手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工業股）和速伯瑪（SUPERMX，7106，主板工業股）「賣出」的建議，目標價格為6.45令吉和2.32令吉。這主要是因為頂級手套面對其中國業務擴展活動縮減的影響，以及速伯瑪是受亞太工業的拖累，令其估值被調低。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 23-10-2007 05:58 PM 编辑 ]

pya_ch

感谢chengyk兄,我本来就只要知道大概
反正谁是王谁是后这不大事,
因为可敬的对手是一辈子难求的,
所以我们这些小股东可以借助他们的竞争,
从而达到投资致富的梦想,
当然我指的竞争必须是良性竞争,
所以有钱的不妨两边买,
我没钱,只好买自己较看好的那边

scsiang82

頂級手套冀3年內
全球市佔率增至35%
（吉隆坡23日訊）頂級手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工業）放眼，2010年全球市佔率將從現有的25%提高至35%，09財年手套年產量達440億隻。
頂級手套在文告中指出，預測擴展產能將使09財年盈利，按年揚升24%。

“截至09年8月財年，銷售額或成長23%至19億令吉，淨收入展望從1億2500萬令吉，上揚至1億5500萬令吉。”

頂級手套是全球最大橡膠手套製造商，美國及歐洲為最大出口市場。

該公司正擴充廠房，冀產能在2010年倍增至600億隻手套，或佔全球35%市場。

頂級手套估計，國際手套需求量將攀揚30%，2010年將達1600億隻。

“公司計劃明年將廠房增至20間，09年則達22間。”

目前，該公司擁有18間廠房，並安置322條生產線，年產量達280億隻。

“明年產能料上揚25%，達350億隻手套。”

中國第2家廠房已在5月開始營運，泰國設施則在6月投產。

該公司計劃在2010年前，每年增加2廠房。

http://www.chinapress.com.my/con ... mp;art=1024bs06.txt