回复 155# 鸡蛋豆腐
Star Publications - Stronger-than-expected Ad Revenue
今年8月RHB给的 FAIR VALUE: 4.20
1H net profit grew 71.9% yoy, beating expectations. Star’s 2QFY10 net profit of RM50.1m (+52.4% yoy, +32.4% qoq) was slightly above our and consensus expectations with 1HFY10 net profit of RM87.9m (+71.9% yoy) accounting for 53% and 52% of our and consensus full-year estimates respectively. We believe the key variance stemmed from stronger-than-expected ad revenue in 1HFY10. ♦2Q10 revenue and net profit grew 28.3% and 32.4% qoq respectively. Qoq, revenue grew by 28.3% due to stronger advertising revenue as well as stronger numbers recorded by Cityneon (+138% qoq). According to Nielsen Media Research (NMR), Star’s 2Q gross adex jumped 13.1% qoq. With that, this led to the 32.4% qoq net profit growth. ♦1st interim gross DPS of 7.5 sen and special tax exempt of 3 sen. Star declared a first interim gross DPS of 7.5 sen and special tax exempt DPS of 3 sen (2Q09: interim gross DPS of 7.5 sen and special tax exempt DPS of 5.8 sen). This interim dividend translates to a net yield of 2.4%. ♦Star to benefit from lower newsprint stock. In our view, ad spending in FY10 should see further improvement, in tandem with a recovering economy and high sporting events. We also believe that the company should benefit from cheaper newsprint stock. Currently, Star is carrying 10-11 months of newsprint stock at an average cost of US$650/tonne (vs. current spot price of US$660/tonne). ♦Risks. The risks include: 1) weaker-than-expected adex; 2) higher-than- expected newsprint costs; and 3) a depreciating RM vs. the US$. ♦Forecasts. We have revised up our FY10/FY11/FY12 ad revenue growth to 9.6%/4.9%/3.5% (vs. 6.5%/4.5%/3.3% respectively) following the stronger ad revenue achieved by Star thus far. As a result, our FY10-12 earnings forecasts have been raised by 7.2-8.0%.
♦Investment case. Our indicative fair value is raised to RM4.20 (from RM3.86), based on unchanged target FY11 PER of 15x. We are upgrading our call on the stock to Outperform from Market Perform previously | 
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发表于 25-10-2010 06:07 PM
楼主
也是single tier 
为什么盈利一直跌～ 却可以一直分股息的叻？
6297 
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